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Additive Noise Models (ANM) encode a popular functional assumption that enables learning causal structure from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data meeting the assumptions, synthetic ANM data are often used to evaluate causal discovery algorithms. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for common simulation parameters, a variable ordering by increasing variance is closely aligned with a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify the alignment. Here, we show that not only variance, but also the fraction of a variable's variance explained by all others, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. Simple baseline algorithms can use $R^2$-sortability to match the performance of established methods. Since $R^2$-sortability is invariant under data rescaling, these algorithms perform equally well on standardized or rescaled data, addressing a key limitation of algorithms exploiting var-sortability. We characterize and empirically assess $R^2$-sortability for different simulation parameters. We show that all simulation parameters can affect $R^2$-sortability and must be chosen deliberately to control the difficulty of the causal discovery task and the real-world plausibility of the simulated data. We provide an implementation of the sortability measures and sortability-based algorithms in our library CausalDisco (//github.com/CausalDisco/CausalDisco).

Average-K classification is an alternative to top-K classification in which the number of labels returned varies with the ambiguity of the input image but must average to K over all the samples. A simple method to solve this task is to threshold the softmax output of a model trained with the cross-entropy loss. This approach is theoretically proven to be asymptotically consistent, but it is not guaranteed to be optimal for a finite set of samples. In this paper, we propose a new loss function based on a multi-label classification head in addition to the classical softmax. This second head is trained using pseudo-labels generated by thresholding the softmax head while guaranteeing that K classes are returned on average. We show that this approach allows the model to better capture ambiguities between classes and, as a result, to return more consistent sets of possible classes. Experiments on two datasets from the literature demonstrate that our approach outperforms the softmax baseline, as well as several other loss functions more generally designed for weakly supervised multi-label classification. The gains are larger the higher the uncertainty, especially for classes with few samples.

We present a novel technique to estimate the 6D pose of objects from single images where the 3D geometry of the object is only given approximately and not as a precise 3D model. To achieve this, we employ a dense 2D-to-3D correspondence predictor that regresses 3D model coordinates for every pixel. In addition to the 3D coordinates, our model also estimates the pixel-wise coordinate error to discard correspondences that are likely wrong. This allows us to generate multiple 6D pose hypotheses of the object, which we then refine iteratively using a highly efficient region-based approach. We also introduce a novel pixel-wise posterior formulation by which we can estimate the probability for each hypothesis and select the most likely one. As we show in experiments, our approach is capable of dealing with extreme visual conditions including overexposure, high contrast, or low signal-to-noise ratio. This makes it a powerful technique for the particularly challenging task of estimating the pose of tumbling satellites for in-orbit robotic applications. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the SPEED+ dataset and has won the SPEC2021 post-mortem competition.

In this work, we develop an approach mentioned by da Veiga and Gamboa in 2013. It consists in extending the very interestingpoint of view introduced in \cite{gine2008simple} to estimate general nonlinear integral functionals of a density on the real line, by using empirically a kernel estimator erasing the diagonal terms. Relaxing the positiveness assumption on the kernel and choosing a kernel of order large enough, we are able to prove a central limit theorem for estimating Sobol' indices of any order (the bias is killed thanks to this signed kernel).

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has attracted much attention over the past decade. However, the model representation power of the GPSSM is far from satisfactory. Most GPSSM studies rely on the standard Gaussian process (GP) with a preliminary kernel, such as the squared exponential (SE) kernel or Mat\'{e}rn kernel, which limits the model representation power and its application in complex scenarios. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel class of probabilistic state-space models, called TGPSSMs. By leveraging a parametric normalizing flow, the TGPSSMs enrich the GP priors in the standard GPSSM, rendering the state-space model more flexible and expressive. Additionally, we present a scalable variational inference algorithm for learning and inference in TGPSSMs, which provides a flexible and optimal structure for the variational distribution of latent states. The algorithm is interpretable and computationally efficient owing to the sparse representation of GP and the bijective nature of normalizing flow. To further improve the learning and inference performance of the proposed algorithm, we integrate a constrained optimization framework to enhance the state-space representation capabilities and optimize the hyperparameters. The experimental results based on various synthetic and real datasets corroborate that the proposed TGPSSM yields superior learning and inference performance compared to several state-of-the-art methods. The accompanying source code is available at \url{//github.com/zhidilin/TGPSSM}.

This paper resolves the open question of designing near-optimal algorithms for learning imperfect-information extensive-form games from bandit feedback. We present the first line of algorithms that require only $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((XA+YB)/\varepsilon^2)$ episodes of play to find an $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium in two-player zero-sum games, where $X,Y$ are the number of information sets and $A,B$ are the number of actions for the two players. This improves upon the best known sample complexity of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((X^2A+Y^2B)/\varepsilon^2)$ by a factor of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\max\{X, Y\})$, and matches the information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. We achieve this sample complexity by two new algorithms: Balanced Online Mirror Descent, and Balanced Counterfactual Regret Minimization. Both algorithms rely on novel approaches of integrating \emph{balanced exploration policies} into their classical counterparts. We also extend our results to learning Coarse Correlated Equilibria in multi-player general-sum games.

This work investigates the use of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to perform an estimation of the Weapon Engagement Zone (WEZ) maximum launch range. The WEZ allows the pilot to identify an airspace in which the available missile has a more significant probability of successfully engaging a particular target, i.e., a hypothetical area surrounding an aircraft in which an adversary is vulnerable to a shot. We propose an approach to determine the WEZ of a given missile using 50,000 simulated launches in variate conditions. These simulations are used to train a DNN that can predict the WEZ when the aircraft finds itself on different firing conditions, with a coefficient of determination of 0.99. It provides another procedure concerning preceding research since it employs a non-discretized model, i.e., it considers all directions of the WEZ at once, which has not been done previously. Additionally, the proposed method uses an experimental design that allows for fewer simulation runs, providing faster model training.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.