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We introduce a generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) next of kin aiming at distribution-free and parsimonious regression modelling for arbitrary outcomes. We replace the strict parametric distribution formulating such a model by a transformation function, which in turn is estimated from data. Doing so not only makes the model distribution-free but also allows to limit the number of linear or smooth model terms to a pair of location-scale predictor functions. We derive the likelihood for continuous, discrete, and randomly censored observations, along with corresponding score functions. A plethora of existing algorithms is leveraged for model estimation, including constrained maximum-likelihood, the original GAMLSS algorithm, and transformation trees. Parameter interpretability in the resulting models is closely connected to model selection. We propose the application of a novel best subset selection procedure to achieve especially simple ways of interpretation. All techniques are motivated and illustrated by a collection of applications from different domains, including crossing and partial proportional hazards, complex count regression, non-linear ordinal regression, and growth curves. All analyses are reproducible with the help of the "tram" add-on package to the R system for statistical computing and graphics.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · INTERACT · 高斯過程回歸 · MoDELS · Processing(編程語言) ·
2023 年 6 月 13 日

This paper focuses on statistical modelling using additive Gaussian process (GP) models and their efficient implementation for large-scale spatio-temporal data with a multi-dimensional grid structure. To achieve this, we exploit the Kronecker product structures of the covariance kernel. While this method has gained popularity in the GP literature, the existing approach is limited to covariance kernels with a tensor product structure and does not allow flexible modelling and selection of interaction effects. This is considered an important component in spatio-temporal analysis. We extend the method to a more general class of additive GP models that accounts for main effects and selected interaction effects. Our approach allows for easy identification and interpretation of interaction effects. The proposed model is applied to the analysis of NO$_2$ concentrations during the COVID-19 lockdown in London. Our scalable method enables analysis of large-scale, hourly-recorded data collected from 59 different stations across the city, providing additional insights to findings from previous research using daily or weekly averaged data.

Learning to Rank (LTR) methods are vital in online economies, affecting users and item providers. Fairness in LTR models is crucial to allocate exposure proportionally to item relevance. The deterministic ranking model can lead to unfair exposure distribution when items with the same relevance receive slightly different scores. Stochastic LTR models, incorporating the Plackett-Luce (PL) model, address fairness issues but have limitations in computational cost and performance guarantees. To overcome these limitations, we propose FairLTR-RC, a novel post-hoc model-agnostic method. FairLTR-RC leverages a pretrained scoring function to create a stochastic LTR model, eliminating the need for expensive training. Furthermore, FairLTR-RC provides finite-sample guarantees on a user-specified utility using distribution-free risk control framework. By additionally incorporating the Thresholded PL (TPL) model, we are able to achieve an effective trade-off between utility and fairness. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that FairLTR-RC significantly improves fairness in widely-used deterministic LTR models while guaranteeing a specified level of utility.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on \textit{exchangeable} data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Test of independence is of fundamental importance in modern data analysis, with broad applications in variable selection, graphical models, and causal inference. When the data is high dimensional and the potential dependence signal is sparse, independence testing becomes very challenging without distributional or structural assumptions. In this paper, we propose a general framework for independence testing by first fitting a classifier that distinguishes the joint and product distributions, and then testing the significance of the fitted classifier. This framework allows us to borrow the strength of the most advanced classification algorithms developed from the modern machine learning community, making it applicable to high dimensional, complex data. By combining a sample split and a fixed permutation, our test statistic has a universal, fixed Gaussian null distribution that is independent of the underlying data distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the advantages of the newly proposed test compared with existing methods. We further apply the new test to a single-cell data set to test the independence between two types of single-cell sequencing measurements, whose high dimensionality and sparsity make existing methods hard to apply.

In this paper, we study the estimation of the derivative of a regression function in a standard univariate regression model. The estimators are defined either by derivating nonparametric least-squares estimators of the regression function or by estimating the projection of the derivative. We prove two simple risk bounds allowing to compare our estimators. More elaborate bounds under a stability assumption are then provided. Bases and spaces on which we can illustrate our assumptions and first results are both of compact or non compact type, and we discuss the rates reached by our estimators. They turn out to be optimal in the compact case. Lastly, we propose a model selection procedure and prove the associated risk bound. To consider bases with a non compact support makes the problem difficult.

This paper studies distribution-free inference in settings where the data set has a hierarchical structure -- for example, groups of observations, or repeated measurements. In such settings, standard notions of exchangeability may not hold. To address this challenge, a hierarchical form of exchangeability is derived, facilitating extensions of distribution-free methods, including conformal prediction and jackknife+. While the standard theoretical guarantee obtained by the conformal prediction framework is a marginal predictive coverage guarantee, in the special case of independent repeated measurements, it is possible to achieve a stronger form of coverage -- the "second-moment coverage" property -- to provide better control of conditional miscoverage rates, and distribution-free prediction sets that achieve this property are constructed. Simulations illustrate that this guarantee indeed leads to uniformly small conditional miscoverage rates. Empirically, this stronger guarantee comes at the cost of a larger width of the prediction set in scenarios where the fitted model is poorly calibrated, but this cost is very mild in cases where the fitted model is accurate.

We present for the first time a complete solution to the problem of proving the correctness of a concurrency control algorithm for collaborative text editors against the standard consistency model. The success of our approach stems from the use of comprehensive stringwise operational transformations, which appear to have escaped a formal treatment until now. Because these transformations sometimes lead to an increase in the number of operations as they are transformed, we cannot use inductive methods and adopt the novel idea of decreasing diagrams instead. We also base our algorithm on a client-server model rather than a peer-to-peer one, which leads to the correct application of operational transformations to both newly generated and pending operations. And lastly we solve the problem of latency, so that our algorithm works perfectly in practice. The result of these innovations is the first ever formally correct concurrency control algorithm for collaborative text editors together with a fast, fault tolerant and highly scalable implementation.

Ridges play a vital role in accurately approximating the underlying structure of manifolds. In this paper, we explore the ridge's variation by applying a concave nonlinear transformation to the density function. Through the derivation of the Hessian matrix, we observe that nonlinear transformations yield a rank-one modification of the Hessian matrix. Leveraging the variational properties of eigenvalue problems, we establish a partial order inclusion relationship among the corresponding ridges. We intuitively discover that the transformation can lead to improved estimation of the tangent space via rank-one modification of the Hessian matrix. To validate our theories, we conduct extensive numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets that demonstrate the superiority of the ridges obtained from our transformed approach in approximating the underlying truth manifold compared to other manifold fitting algorithms.

Large-scale networks are commonly encountered in practice (e.g., Facebook and Twitter) by researchers. In order to study the network interaction between different nodes of large-scale networks, the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model has been popularly employed. Despite its popularity, the estimation of a SAR model on large-scale networks remains very challenging. On the one hand, due to policy limitations or high collection costs, it is often impossible for independent researchers to observe or collect all network information. On the other hand, even if the entire network is accessible, estimating the SAR model using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) could be computationally infeasible due to its high computational cost. To address these challenges, we propose here a subnetwork estimation method based on QMLE for the SAR model. By using appropriate sampling methods, a subnetwork, consisting of a much-reduced number of nodes, can be constructed. Subsequently, the standard QMLE can be computed by treating the sampled subnetwork as if it were the entire network. This leads to a significant reduction in information collection and model computation costs, which increases the practical feasibility of the effort. Theoretically, we show that the subnetwork-based QMLE is consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Extensive simulation studies, based on both simulated and real network structures, are presented.

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations or nonparametric representations that are computationally inefficient and cumbersome for implementation and theoretical analysis, which limits their usability in practice. This paper introduces a simple, general, and efficient strategy for joint posterior inference of an unknown transformation and all regression model parameters. The proposed approach directly targets the posterior distribution of the transformation by linking it with the marginal distributions of the independent and dependent variables, and then deploys a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap. Crucially, this approach delivers (1) joint posterior consistency under general conditions, including multiple model misspecifications, and (2) efficient Monte Carlo (not Markov chain Monte Carlo) inference for the transformation and all parameters for important special cases. These tools apply across a variety of data domains, including real-valued, integer-valued, compactly-supported, and positive data. Simulation studies and an empirical application demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this strategy for semiparametric Bayesian analysis with linear models, quantile regression, and Gaussian processes.

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