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This paper reveals that every image can be understood as a first-order norm+linear autoregressive process, referred to as FINOLA, where norm+linear denotes the use of normalization before the linear model. We demonstrate that images of size 256$\times$256 can be reconstructed from a compressed vector using autoregression up to a 16$\times$16 feature map, followed by upsampling and convolution. This discovery sheds light on the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs) governing the latent feature space. Additionally, we investigate the application of FINOLA for self-supervised learning through a simple masked prediction technique. By encoding a single unmasked quadrant block, we can autoregressively predict the surrounding masked region. Remarkably, this pre-trained representation proves effective for image classification and object detection tasks, even in lightweight networks, without requiring fine-tuning. The code will be made publicly available.

Lung cancer poses a significant global public health challenge, emphasizing the importance of early detection for improved patient outcomes. Recent advancements in deep learning algorithms have shown promising results in medical image analysis. This study aims to explore the application of object detection particularly YOLOv5, an advanced object identification system, in medical imaging for lung cancer identification. To train and evaluate the algorithm, a dataset comprising chest X-rays and corresponding annotations was obtained from Kaggle. The YOLOv5 model was employed to train an algorithm capable of detecting cancerous lung lesions. The training process involved optimizing hyperparameters and utilizing augmentation techniques to enhance the model's performance. The trained YOLOv5 model exhibited exceptional proficiency in identifying lung cancer lesions, displaying high accuracy and recall rates. It successfully pinpointed malignant areas in chest radiographs, as validated by a separate test set where it outperformed previous techniques. Additionally, the YOLOv5 model demonstrated computational efficiency, enabling real-time detection and making it suitable for integration into clinical procedures. This proposed approach holds promise in assisting radiologists in the early discovery and diagnosis of lung cancer, ultimately leading to prompt treatment and improved patient outcomes.

We give two prediction intervals (PI) for Generalized Linear Models that take model selection uncertainty into account. The first is a straightforward extension of asymptotic normality results and the second includes an extra optimization that improves nominal coverage for small-to--moderate samples. Both PI's are wider than would be obtained without incorporating model selection uncertyainty. We compare these two PI's with three other PI's. Two are based on bootstrapping procedures and the third is based on a PI from Bayes model averaging. We argue that for general usage either the asymptotic normality or optimized asymptotic normality PI's work best. In an Appendix we extend our results to Generalized Linear Mixed Models.

Goal-oriented error estimation provides the ability to approximate the discretization error in a chosen functional quantity of interest. Adaptive mesh methods provide the ability to control this discretization error to obtain accurate quantity of interest approximations while still remaining computationally feasible. Traditional discrete goal-oriented error estimates incur linearization errors in their derivation. In this paper, we investigate the role of linearization errors in adaptive goal-oriented error simulations. In particular, we develop a novel two-level goal-oriented error estimate that is free of linearization errors. Additionally, we highlight how linearization errors can facilitate the verification of the adjoint solution used in goal-oriented error estimation. We then verify the newly proposed error estimate by applying it to a model nonlinear problem for several quantities of interest and further highlight its asymptotic effectiveness as mesh sizes are reduced. In an adaptive mesh context, we then compare the newly proposed estimate to a more traditional two-level goal-oriented error estimate. We highlight that accounting for linearization errors in the error estimate can improve its effectiveness in certain situations and demonstrate that localizing linearization errors can lead to more optimal adapted meshes.

In this paper, we study the problem of robust sparse mean estimation, where the goal is to estimate a $k$-sparse mean from a collection of partially corrupted samples drawn from a heavy-tailed distribution. Existing estimators face two critical challenges in this setting. First, they are limited by a conjectured computational-statistical tradeoff, implying that any computationally efficient algorithm needs $\tilde\Omega(k^2)$ samples, while its statistically-optimal counterpart only requires $\tilde O(k)$ samples. Second, the existing estimators fall short of practical use as they scale poorly with the ambient dimension. This paper presents a simple mean estimator that overcomes both challenges under moderate conditions: it runs in near-linear time and memory (both with respect to the ambient dimension) while requiring only $\tilde O(k)$ samples to recover the true mean. At the core of our method lies an incremental learning phenomenon: we introduce a simple nonconvex framework that can incrementally learn the top-$k$ nonzero elements of the mean while keeping the zero elements arbitrarily small. Unlike existing estimators, our method does not need any prior knowledge of the sparsity level $k$. We prove the optimality of our estimator by providing a matching information-theoretic lower bound. Finally, we conduct a series of simulations to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our code is available at //github.com/huihui0902/Robust_mean_estimation.

Time-sensitive networks require timely and accurate monitoring of the status of the network. To achieve this, many devices send packets periodically, which are then aggregated and forwarded to the controller. Bounding the aggregate burstiness of the traffic is then crucial for effective resource management. In this paper, we are interested in bounding this aggregate burstiness for independent and periodic flows. A deterministic bound is tight only when flows are perfectly synchronized, which is highly unlikely in practice and would be overly pessimistic. We compute the probability that the aggregate burstiness exceeds some value. When all flows have the same period and packet size, we obtain a closed-form bound using the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality. In the heterogeneous case, we group flows and combine the bounds obtained for each group using the convolution bound. Our bounds are numerically close to simulations and thus fairly tight. The resulting aggregate burstiness estimated for a non-zero violation probability is considerably smaller than the deterministic one: it grows in $\sqrt{n\log{n}}$, instead of $n$, where $n$ is the number of flows.

Conditions are obtained for a Gaussian vector autoregressive time series of order $k$, VAR($k$), to have univariate margins that are autoregressive of order $k$ or lower-dimensional margins that are also VAR($k$). This can lead to $d$-dimensional VAR($k$) models that are closed with respect to a given partition $\{S_1,\ldots,S_n\}$ of $\{1,\ldots,d\}$ by specifying marginal serial dependence and some cross-sectional dependence parameters. The special closure property allows one to fit the sub-processes of multivariate time series before assembling them by fitting the dependence structure between the sub-processes. We revisit the use of the Gaussian copula of the stationary joint distribution of observations in the VAR($k$) process with non-Gaussian univariate margins but under the constraint of closure under margins. This construction allows more flexibility in handling higher-dimensional time series and a multi-stage estimation procedure can be used. The proposed class of models is applied to a macro-economic data set and compared with the relevant benchmark models.

Machine learning (ML) systems in natural language processing (NLP) face significant challenges in generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data, where the test distribution differs from the training data distribution. This poses important questions about the robustness of NLP models and their high accuracy, which may be artificially inflated due to their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases. Despite these challenges, there is a lack of comprehensive surveys on the generalization challenge from an OOD perspective in text classification. Therefore, this paper aims to fill this gap by presenting the first comprehensive review of recent progress, methods, and evaluations on this topic. We furth discuss the challenges involved and potential future research directions. By providing quick access to existing work, we hope this survey will encourage future research in this area.

Motivated by the challenge of sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials, we study a continuum birth-death dynamics. We improve results in previous works [51,57] and provide weaker hypotheses under which the probability density of the birth-death governed by Kullback-Leibler divergence or by $\chi^2$ divergence converge exponentially fast to the Gibbs equilibrium measure, with a universal rate that is independent of the potential barrier. To build a practical numerical sampler based on the pure birth-death dynamics, we consider an interacting particle system, which is inspired by the gradient flow structure and the classical Fokker-Planck equation and relies on kernel-based approximations of the measure. Using the technique of $\Gamma$-convergence of gradient flows, we show that on the torus, smooth and bounded positive solutions of the kernelized dynamics converge on finite time intervals, to the pure birth-death dynamics as the kernel bandwidth shrinks to zero. Moreover we provide quantitative estimates on the bias of minimizers of the energy corresponding to the kernelized dynamics. Finally we prove the long-time asymptotic results on the convergence of the asymptotic states of the kernelized dynamics towards the Gibbs measure.

Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.