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Correlated data are ubiquitous in today's data-driven society. A fundamental task in analyzing these data is to understand, characterize and utilize the correlations in them in order to conduct valid inference. Yet explicit regression analysis of correlations has been so far limited to longitudinal data, a special form of correlated data, while implicit analysis via mixed-effects models lacks generality as a full inferential tool. This paper proposes a novel regression approach for modelling the correlation structure, leveraging a new generalized z-transformation. This transformation maps correlation matrices that are constrained to be positive definite to vectors with un-restricted support, and is order-invariant. Building on these two properties, we develop a regression model to relate the transformed parameters to any covariates. We show that coupled with a mean and a variance regression model, the use of maximum likelihood leads to asymptotically normal parameter estimates, and crucially enables statistical inference for all the parameters. The performance of our framework is demonstrated in extensive simulation. More importantly, we illustrate the use of our model with the analysis of the classroom data, a highly unbalanced multilevel clustered data with within-class and within-school correlations, and the analysis of the malaria immune response data in Benin, a longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates in addition to time. Our analyses reveal new insights not previously known.

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Momentum methods have been shown to accelerate the convergence of the standard gradient descent algorithm in practice and theory. In particular, the minibatch-based gradient descent methods with momentum (MGDM) are widely used to solve large-scale optimization problems with massive datasets. Despite the success of the MGDM methods in practice, their theoretical properties are still underexplored. To this end, we investigate the theoretical properties of MGDM methods based on the linear regression models. We first study the numerical convergence properties of the MGDM algorithm and further provide the theoretically optimal tuning parameters specification to achieve faster convergence rate. In addition, we explore the relationship between the statistical properties of the resulting MGDM estimator and the tuning parameters. Based on these theoretical findings, we give the conditions for the resulting estimator to achieve the optimal statistical efficiency. Finally, extensive numerical experiments are conducted to verify our theoretical results.

The function-on-function linear regression model in which the response and predictors consist of random curves has become a general framework to investigate the relationship between the functional response and functional predictors. Existing methods to estimate the model parameters may be sensitive to outlying observations, common in empirical applications. In addition, these methods may be severely affected by such observations, leading to undesirable estimation and prediction results. A robust estimation method, based on iteratively reweighted simple partial least squares, is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the function-on-function linear regression model in the presence of outliers. The performance of the proposed method is based on the number of partial least squares components used to estimate the function-on-function linear regression model. Thus, the optimum number of components is determined via a data-driven error criterion. The finite-sample performance of the proposed method is investigated via several Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical data analysis. In addition, a nonparametric bootstrap method is applied to construct pointwise prediction intervals for the response function. The results are compared with some of the existing methods to illustrate the improvement potentially gained by the proposed method.

Understanding spatial correlation is vital in many fields including epidemiology and social science. Lee, Meeks and Pettersson (Stat. Comput. 2021) recently demonstrated that improved inference for areal unit count data can be achieved by carrying out modifications to a graph representing spatial correlations; specifically, they delete edges of the planar graph derived from border-sharing between geographic regions in order to maximise a specific objective function. In this paper we address the computational complexity of the associated graph optimisation problem. We demonstrate that this problem cannot be solved in polynomial time unless P = NP; we further show intractability for two simpler variants of the problem. We follow these results with two parameterised algorithms that exactly solve the problem in polynomial time in restricted settings. The first of these utilises dynamic programming on a tree decomposition, and runs in polynomial time if both the treewidth and maximum degree are bounded. The second algorithm is restricted to problem instances with maximum degree three, as may arise from triangulations of planar surfaces, but is an FPT algorithm when the maximum number of edges that can be removed is taken as the parameter.

This work investigates the use of robust optimal transport (OT) for shape matching. Specifically, we show that recent OT solvers improve both optimization-based and deep learning methods for point cloud registration, boosting accuracy at an affordable computational cost. This manuscript starts with a practical overview of modern OT theory. We then provide solutions to the main difficulties in using this framework for shape matching. Finally, we showcase the performance of transport-enhanced registration models on a wide range of challenging tasks: rigid registration for partial shapes; scene flow estimation on the Kitti dataset; and nonparametric registration of lung vascular trees between inspiration and expiration. Our OT-based methods achieve state-of-the-art results on Kitti and for the challenging lung registration task, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. We also release PVT1010, a new public dataset of 1,010 pairs of lung vascular trees with densely sampled points. This dataset provides a challenging use case for point cloud registration algorithms with highly complex shapes and deformations. Our work demonstrates that robust OT enables fast pre-alignment and fine-tuning for a wide range of registration models, thereby providing a new key method for the computer vision toolbox. Our code and dataset are available online at: //github.com/uncbiag/robot.

Quantile regression is a powerful data analysis tool that accommodates heterogeneous covariate-response relationships. We find that by coupling the asymmetric Laplace working likelihood with appropriate shrinkage priors, we can deliver posterior inference that automatically adapts to possible sparsity in quantile regression analysis. After a suitable adjustment on the posterior variance, the posterior inference provides asymptotically valid inference under heterogeneity. Furthermore, the proposed approach leads to oracle asymptotic efficiency for the active (nonzero) quantile regression coefficients and super-efficiency for the non-active ones. By avoiding the need to pursue dichotomous variable selection, the Bayesian computational framework demonstrates desirable inference stability with respect to tuning parameter selection. Our work helps to uncloak the value of Bayesian computational methods in frequentist inference for quantile regression.

The task of modeling claim severities is addressed when data is not consistent with the classical regression assumptions. This framework is common in several lines of business within insurance and reinsurance, where catastrophic losses or heterogeneous sub-populations result in data difficult to model. Their correct analysis is required for pricing insurance products, and some of the most prevalent recent specifications in this direction are mixture-of-experts models. This paper proposes a regression model that generalizes the latter approach to the phase-type distribution setting. More specifically, the concept of mixing is extended to the case where an entire Markov jump process is unobserved and where states can communicate with each other. The covariates then act on the initial probabilities of such underlying chain, which play the role of expert weights. The basic properties of such a model are computed in terms of matrix functionals, and denseness properties are derived, demonstrating their flexibility. An effective estimation procedure is proposed, based on the EM algorithm and multinomial logistic regression, and subsequently illustrated using simulated and real-world datasets. The increased flexibility of the proposed models does not come at a high computational cost, and the motivation and interpretation are equally transparent to simpler MoE models.

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. However, even for linear regression models, conjugate priors and closed-form posteriors are typically unavailable, thereby necessitating approximations or Markov chain Monte Carlo for posterior inference. For a broad class of count and rounded data regression models, we introduce conjugate priors that enable closed-form posterior inference. Key posterior and predictive functionals are computable analytically or via direct Monte Carlo simulation. Crucially, the predictive distributions are discrete to match the support of the data and can be evaluated or simulated jointly across multiple covariate values. These tools are broadly useful for linear regression, nonlinear models via basis expansions, and model and variable selection. Multiple simulation studies demonstrate significant advantages in computing, predictive modeling, and selection relative to existing alternatives.

In numerical simulations of complex flows with discontinuities, it is necessary to use nonlinear schemes. The spectrum of the scheme used have a significant impact on the resolution and stability of the computation. Based on the approximate dispersion relation method, we combine the corresponding spectral property with the dispersion relation preservation proposed by De and Eswaran (J. Comput. Phys. 218 (2006) 398-416) and propose a quasi-linear dispersion relation preservation (QL-DRP) analysis method, through which the group velocity of the nonlinear scheme can be determined. In particular, we derive the group velocity property when a high-order Runge-Kutta scheme is used and compare the performance of different time schemes with QL-DRP. The rationality of the QL-DRP method is verified by a numerical simulation and the discrete Fourier transform method. To further evaluate the performance of a nonlinear scheme in finding the group velocity, new hyperbolic equations are designed. The validity of QL-DRP and the group velocity preservation of several schemes are investigated using two examples of the equation for one-dimensional wave propagation and the new hyperbolic equations. The results show that the QL-DRP method integrated with high-order time schemes can determine the group velocity for nonlinear schemes and evaluate their performance reasonably and efficiently.

The existence of simple, uncoupled no-regret dynamics that converge to correlated equilibria in normal-form games is a celebrated result in the theory of multi-agent systems. Specifically, it has been known for more than 20 years that when all players seek to minimize their internal regret in a repeated normal-form game, the empirical frequency of play converges to a normal-form correlated equilibrium. Extensive-form (that is, tree-form) games generalize normal-form games by modeling both sequential and simultaneous moves, as well as private information. Because of the sequential nature and presence of partial information in the game, extensive-form correlation has significantly different properties than the normal-form counterpart, many of which are still open research directions. Extensive-form correlated equilibrium (EFCE) has been proposed as the natural extensive-form counterpart to normal-form correlated equilibrium. However, it was currently unknown whether EFCE emerges as the result of uncoupled agent dynamics. In this paper, we give the first uncoupled no-regret dynamics that converge to the set of EFCEs in $n$-player general-sum extensive-form games with perfect recall. First, we introduce a notion of trigger regret in extensive-form games, which extends that of internal regret in normal-form games. When each player has low trigger regret, the empirical frequency of play is close to an EFCE. Then, we give an efficient no-trigger-regret algorithm. Our algorithm decomposes trigger regret into local subproblems at each decision point for the player, and constructs a global strategy of the player from the local solutions at each decision point.

We investigate Relational Graph Attention Networks, a class of models that extends non-relational graph attention mechanisms to incorporate relational information, opening up these methods to a wider variety of problems. A thorough evaluation of these models is performed, and comparisons are made against established benchmarks. To provide a meaningful comparison, we retrain Relational Graph Convolutional Networks, the spectral counterpart of Relational Graph Attention Networks, and evaluate them under the same conditions. We find that Relational Graph Attention Networks perform worse than anticipated, although some configurations are marginally beneficial for modelling molecular properties. We provide insights as to why this may be, and suggest both modifications to evaluation strategies, as well as directions to investigate for future work.

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