Effect size measures and visualization techniques aimed at maximizing the interpretability and comparability of results from statistical models have long been of great importance and are recently again receiving increased attention in the literature. However, since the methods proposed in this context originate from a wide variety of disciplines and are more often than not practically motivated, they lack a common theoretical framework and many quantities are narrowly or heuristically defined. In this work, we put forward a common mathematical setting for effect size measures and visualization techniques aimed at the results of parametric regression and define a formal framework for the consistent derivation of both existing and new variants of such quantities. Throughout the presented theory, we utilize probability measures to derive weighted means over areas of interest. While we take a Bayesian approach to quantifying uncertainty in order to derive consistent results for every defined quantity, all proposed methods apply to the results of both frequentist and Bayesian inference. We apply selected specifications derived from the proposed framework to data from a clinical trial and a multi-analyst study to illustrate its versatility and relevance.
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As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and discovering cause-and-effect relations. However, how to discover and represent causalities remains a huge gap that hinders the development of causal RL. In this paper, we augment Goal-Conditioned RL (GCRL) with Causal Graph (CG), a structure built upon the relation between objects and events. We novelly formulate the GCRL problem into variational likelihood maximization with CG as latent variables. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventional data to estimate the posterior of CG; using CG to learn generalizable models and interpretable policies. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that verify generalization capability under reasoning, we design nine tasks and then empirically show the effectiveness of the proposed method against five baselines on these tasks. Further theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement is attributed to the virtuous cycle of causal discovery, transition modeling, and policy training, which aligns with the experimental evidence in extensive ablation studies.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) concerns pursuing an optimal policy for sequential decision-making from a pre-collected dataset, without further interaction with the environment. Recent theoretical progress has focused on developing sample-efficient offline RL algorithms with various relaxed assumptions on data coverage and function approximators, especially to handle the case with excessively large state-action spaces. Among them, the framework based on the linear-programming (LP) reformulation of Markov decision processes has shown promise: it enables sample-efficient offline RL with function approximation, under only partial data coverage and realizability assumptions on the function classes, with favorable computational tractability. In this work, we revisit the LP framework for offline RL, and advance the existing results in several aspects, relaxing certain assumptions and achieving optimal statistical rates in terms of sample size. Our key enabler is to introduce proper constraints in the reformulation, instead of using any regularization as in the literature, sometimes also with careful choices of the function classes and initial state distributions. We hope our insights further advocate the study of the LP framework, as well as the induced primal-dual minimax optimization, in offline RL.
We study uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models as well as closely related mixture of regression (also known as mixed regression) models, where the regression functions are allowed to be nonparametric and the error distributions are assumed to be convolutions of a Gaussian density. We construct uniformly consistent estimators under general conditions while simultaneously highlighting several pain points in extending existing pointwise consistency results to uniform results. The resulting analysis turns out to be nontrivial, and several novel technical tools are developed along the way. In the case of mixed regression, we prove $L^1$ convergence of the regression functions while allowing for the component regression functions to intersect arbitrarily often, which presents additional technical challenges. We also consider generalizations to general (i.e. non-convolutional) nonparametric mixtures.
Tsetlin Machine (TM) has been gaining popularity as an inherently interpretable machine leaning method that is able to achieve promising performance with low computational complexity on a variety of applications. The interpretability and the low computational complexity of the TM are inherited from the Boolean expressions for representing various sub-patterns. Although possessing favorable properties, TM has not been the go-to method for AI applications, mainly due to its conceptual and theoretical differences compared with perceptrons and neural networks, which are more widely known and well understood. In this paper, we provide detailed insights for the operational concept of the TM, and try to bridge the gap in the theoretical understanding between the perceptron and the TM. More specifically, we study the operational concept of the TM following the analytical structure of perceptrons, showing the resemblance between the perceptrons and the TM. Through the analysis, we indicated that the TM's weight update can be considered as a special case of the gradient weight update. We also perform an empirical analysis of TM by showing the flexibility in determining the clause length, visualization of decision boundaries and obtaining interpretable boolean expressions from TM. In addition, we also discuss the advantages of TM in terms of its structure and its ability to solve more complex problems.
Dynamic interaction graphs have been widely adopted to model the evolution of user-item interactions over time. There are two crucial factors when modelling user preferences for link prediction in dynamic interaction graphs: 1) collaborative relationship among users and 2) user personalized interaction patterns. Existing methods often implicitly consider these two factors together, which may lead to noisy user modelling when the two factors diverge. In addition, they usually require time-consuming parameter learning with back-propagation, which is prohibitive for real-time user preference modelling. To this end, this paper proposes FreeGEM, a parameter-free dynamic graph embedding method for link prediction. Firstly, to take advantage of the collaborative relationships, we propose an incremental graph embedding engine to obtain user/item embeddings, which is an Online-Monitor-Offline architecture consisting of an Online module to approximately embed users/items over time, a Monitor module to estimate the approximation error in real time and an Offline module to calibrate the user/item embeddings when the online approximation errors exceed a threshold. Meanwhile, we integrate attribute information into the model, which enables FreeGEM to better model users belonging to some under represented groups. Secondly, we design a personalized dynamic interaction pattern modeller, which combines dynamic time decay with attention mechanism to model user short-term interests. Experimental results on two link prediction tasks show that FreeGEM can outperform the state-of-the-art methods in accuracy while achieving over 36X improvement in efficiency. All code and datasets can be found in //github.com/FudanCISL/FreeGEM.
One of the most impressive results of recent NLP history is the ability of pre-trained language models to solve new tasks in a zero-shot setting. To achieve this, NLP tasks are framed as natural language prompts, generating a response indicating the predicted output. Nonetheless, the performance in such settings often lags far behind its supervised counterpart, suggesting a large space for potential improvement. In this paper, we explore methods to utilize unlabeled data to improve zero-shot performance. Specifically, we take advantage of the fact that multiple prompts can be used to specify a single task, and propose to regularize prompt consistency, encouraging consistent predictions over this diverse set of prompts. Our method makes it possible to fine-tune the model either with extra unlabeled training data, or directly on test input at inference time in an unsupervised manner. In experiments, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art zero-shot learner, T0 (Sanh et al., 2022), on 9 out of 11 datasets across 4 NLP tasks by up to 10.6 absolute points in terms of accuracy. The gains are often attained with a small number of unlabeled examples.
Entity linking (EL) for the rapidly growing short text (e.g. search queries and news titles) is critical to industrial applications. Most existing approaches relying on adequate context for long text EL are not effective for the concise and sparse short text. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Multi-turn Multiple-choice Machine reading comprehension (M3}) to solve the short text EL from a new perspective: a query is generated for each ambiguous mention exploiting its surrounding context, and an option selection module is employed to identify the golden entity from candidates using the query. In this way, M3 framework sufficiently interacts limited context with candidate entities during the encoding process, as well as implicitly considers the dissimilarities inside the candidate bunch in the selection stage. In addition, we design a two-stage verifier incorporated into M3 to address the commonly existed unlinkable problem in short text. To further consider the topical coherence and interdependence among referred entities, M3 leverages a multi-turn fashion to deal with mentions in a sequence manner by retrospecting historical cues. Evaluation shows that our M3 framework achieves the state-of-the-art performance on five Chinese and English datasets for the real-world short text EL.
Stickers with vivid and engaging expressions are becoming increasingly popular in online messaging apps, and some works are dedicated to automatically select sticker response by matching text labels of stickers with previous utterances. However, due to their large quantities, it is impractical to require text labels for the all stickers. Hence, in this paper, we propose to recommend an appropriate sticker to user based on multi-turn dialog context history without any external labels. Two main challenges are confronted in this task. One is to learn semantic meaning of stickers without corresponding text labels. Another challenge is to jointly model the candidate sticker with the multi-turn dialog context. To tackle these challenges, we propose a sticker response selector (SRS) model. Specifically, SRS first employs a convolutional based sticker image encoder and a self-attention based multi-turn dialog encoder to obtain the representation of stickers and utterances. Next, deep interaction network is proposed to conduct deep matching between the sticker with each utterance in the dialog history. SRS then learns the short-term and long-term dependency between all interaction results by a fusion network to output the the final matching score. To evaluate our proposed method, we collect a large-scale real-world dialog dataset with stickers from one of the most popular online chatting platform. Extensive experiments conducted on this dataset show that our model achieves the state-of-the-art performance for all commonly-used metrics. Experiments also verify the effectiveness of each component of SRS. To facilitate further research in sticker selection field, we release this dataset of 340K multi-turn dialog and sticker pairs.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
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