Regression models that ignore measurement error in predictors may produce highly biased estimates leading to erroneous inferences. It is well known that it is extremely difficult to take measurement error into account in Gaussian nonparametric regression. This problem becomes tremendously more difficult when considering other families such as logistic regression, Poisson and negative-binomial. For the first time, we present a method aiming to correct for measurement error when estimating regression functions flexibly covering virtually all distributions and link functions regularly considered in generalized linear models. This approach depends on approximating the first and the second moment of the response after integrating out the true unobserved predictors in a semiparametric generalized linear model. Unlike previous methods, this method is not restricted to truncated splines and can utilize various basis functions. Through extensive simulation studies, we study the performance of our method under many scenarios.
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With the increasing availability of non-Euclidean data objects, statisticians are faced with the task of developing appropriate statistical methods for their analysis. For regression models in which the predictors lie in $\mathbb{R}^p$ and the response variables are situated in a metric space, conditional Fr\'echet means can be used to define the Fr\'echet regression function. Global and local Fr\'echet methods have recently been developed for modeling and estimating this regression function as extensions of multiple and local linear regression, respectively. This paper expands on these methodologies by proposing the Fr\'echet Single Index model, in which the Fr\'echet regression function is assumed to depend only on a scalar projection of the multivariate predictor. Estimation is performed by combining local Fr\'echet along with M-estimation to estimate both the coefficient vector and the underlying regression function, and these estimators are shown to be consistent. The method is illustrated by simulations for response objects on the surface of the unit sphere and through an analysis of human mortality data in which lifetable data are represented by distributions of age-of-death, viewed as elements of the Wasserstein space of distributions.
The chase procedure is a fundamental algorithmic tool in databases that allows us to reason with constraints, such as existential rules, with a plethora of applications. It takes as input a database and a set of constraints, and iteratively completes the database as dictated by the constraints. A key challenge, though, is the fact that it may not terminate, which leads to the problem of checking whether it terminates given a database and a set of constraints. In this work, we focus on the semi-oblivious version of the chase, which is well-suited for practical implementations, and linear existential rules, a central class of constraints with several applications. In this setting, there is a mature body of theoretical work that provides syntactic characterizations of when the chase terminates, algorithms for checking chase termination, precise complexity results, and worst-case optimal bounds on the size of the result of the chase (whenever is finite). Our main objective is to experimentally evaluate the existing chase termination algorithms with the aim of understanding which input parameters affect their performance, clarifying whether they can be used in practice, and revealing their performance limitations.
Motivated by a real-world application in cardiology, we develop an algorithm to perform Bayesian bi-level variable selection in a generalized linear model, for datasets that may be large both in terms of the number of individuals and the number of predictors. Our algorithm relies on the waste-free SMC Sequential Monte Carlo methodology of Dau and Chopin (2022), a new proposal mechanism to deal with the constraints specific to bi-level selection (which forbid to select an individual predictor if its group is not selected), and the ALA (approximate Laplace approximation) approach of Rossell et al. (2021). We show in our numerical study that the algorithm may offer reliable performance on large datasets within a few minutes, on both simulated data and real data related to the aforementioned cardiology application.
Generalized linear mixed models are powerful tools for analyzing clustered data, where the unknown parameters are classically (and most commonly) estimated by the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood procedures. However, since the likelihood based procedures are known to be highly sensitive to outliers, M-estimators have become popular as a means to obtain robust estimates under possible data contamination. In this paper, we prove that, for sufficiently smooth general loss functions defining the M-estimators in generalized linear mixed models, the tail probability of the deviation between the estimated and the true regression coefficients have an exponential bound. This implies an exponential rate of consistency of these M-estimators under appropriate assumptions, generalizing the existing exponential consistency results from univariate to multivariate responses. We have illustrated this theoretical result further for the special examples of the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust minimum density power divergence estimator, a popular example of model-based M-estimators, in the settings of linear and logistic mixed models, comparing it with the empirical rate of convergence through simulation studies.
Statistical inferences for high-dimensional regression models have been extensively studied for their wide applications ranging from genomics, neuroscience, to economics. However, in practice, there are often potential unmeasured confounders associated with both the response and covariates, which can lead to invalidity of standard debiasing methods. This paper focuses on a generalized linear regression framework with hidden confounding and proposes a debiasing approach to address this high-dimensional problem, by adjusting for the effects induced by the unmeasured confounders. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for the proposed debiased estimator. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies and an application to a genetic data set.
When data is collected in an adaptive manner, even simple methods like ordinary least squares can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior. As an undesirable consequence, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals based on asymptotic normality can lead to erroneous results. We propose a family of online debiasing estimators to correct these distributional anomalies in least squares estimation. Our proposed methods take advantage of the covariance structure present in the dataset and provide sharper estimates in directions for which more information has accrued. We establish an asymptotic normality property for our proposed online debiasing estimators under mild conditions on the data collection process and provide asymptotically exact confidence intervals. We additionally prove a minimax lower bound for the adaptive linear regression problem, thereby providing a baseline by which to compare estimators. There are various conditions under which our proposed estimators achieve the minimax lower bound. We demonstrate the usefulness of our theory via applications to multi-armed bandit, autoregressive time series estimation, and active learning with exploration.
We review Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of factor models for high-dimensional panels of time series. We consider two cases: (1) estimation when no dynamic model for the factors is specified (Bai and Li, 2016); (2) estimation based on the Kalman smoother and the Expectation Maximization algorithm thus allowing to model explicitly the factor dynamics (Doz et al., 2012). Our interest is in approximate factor models, i.e., when we allow for the idiosyncratic components to be mildly cross-sectionally, as well as serially, correlated. Although such setting apparently makes estimation harder, we show, in fact, that factor models do not suffer of the curse of dimensionality problem, but instead they enjoy a blessing of dimensionality property. In particular, we show that if the cross-sectional dimension of the data, $N$, grows to infinity, then: (i) identification of the model is still possible, (ii) the mis-specification error due to the use of an exact factor model log-likelihood vanishes. Moreover, if we let also the sample size, $T$, grow to infinity, we can also consistently estimate all parameters of the model and make inference. The same is true for estimation of the latent factors which can be carried out by weighted least-squares, linear projection, or Kalman filtering/smoothing. We also compare the approaches presented with: Principal Component analysis and the classical, fixed $N$, exact Maximum Likelihood approach. We conclude with a discussion on efficiency of the considered estimators.
A linear inference is a valid inequality of Boolean algebra in which each variable occurs at most once on each side. In this work we leverage recently developed graphical representations of linear formulae to build an implementation that is capable of more efficiently searching for switch-medial-independent inferences. We use it to find four `minimal' 8-variable independent inferences and also prove that no smaller ones exist; in contrast, a previous approach based directly on formulae reached computational limits already at 7 variables. Two of these new inferences derive some previously found independent linear inferences. The other two (which are dual) exhibit structure seemingly beyond the scope of previous approaches we are aware of; in particular, their existence contradicts a conjecture of Das and Strassburger. We were also able to identify 10 minimal 9-variable linear inferences independent of all the aforementioned inferences, comprising 5 dual pairs, and present applications of our implementation to recent `graph logics'.
Based on a novel dynamic Whittle likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes, a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the time-varying spectral density is proposed. This dynamic frequency-domain based likelihood approximation is able to depict the time-frequency evolution of the process by utilizing the moving periodogram previously introduced in the bootstrap literature. The posterior distribution is obtained by updating a bivariate extension of the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior with the dynamic Whittle likelihood. Asymptotic properties such as sup-norm posterior consistency and L2-norm posterior contraction rates are presented. Additionally, this methodology enables model selection between stationarity and non-stationarity based on the Bayes factor. The finite-sample performance of the method is investigated in simulation studies and applications to real-life data-sets are presented.
Substantial progress has been made recently on developing provably accurate and efficient algorithms for low-rank matrix factorization via nonconvex optimization. While conventional wisdom often takes a dim view of nonconvex optimization algorithms due to their susceptibility to spurious local minima, simple iterative methods such as gradient descent have been remarkably successful in practice. The theoretical footings, however, had been largely lacking until recently. In this tutorial-style overview, we highlight the important role of statistical models in enabling efficient nonconvex optimization with performance guarantees. We review two contrasting approaches: (1) two-stage algorithms, which consist of a tailored initialization step followed by successive refinement; and (2) global landscape analysis and initialization-free algorithms. Several canonical matrix factorization problems are discussed, including but not limited to matrix sensing, phase retrieval, matrix completion, blind deconvolution, robust principal component analysis, phase synchronization, and joint alignment. Special care is taken to illustrate the key technical insights underlying their analyses. This article serves as a testament that the integrated consideration of optimization and statistics leads to fruitful research findings.
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