The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly, the choice of the evaluation indicator significantly impacts the results, underscoring the importance of selecting an indicator that properly captures the characteristics of a "good model". This study examines the behavior of six indicators, considering spatial correlation, distribution mean, variance, and shape. A new multi-component measure was selected based on these criteria to assess the performance of 48 CMIP6 models in reproducing the annual seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection patterns in Central America. The top six models were determined using multi-criteria methods. It was found that even the best model reproduces one derived climatic variable poorly in this region. The proposed measure and selection method can contribute to enhancing the accuracy of climatological research based on climate models.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Normalizing flow is a class of deep generative models for efficient sampling and density estimation. In practice, the flow often appears as a chain of invertible neural network blocks; to facilitate training, existing works have regularized flow trajectories and designed special network architectures. The current paper develops a neural ODE flow network inspired by the Jordan-Kinderleherer-Otto (JKO) scheme, which allows efficient block-wise training of the residual blocks without sampling SDE trajectories or inner loops of score matching or variational learning. As the JKO scheme unfolds the dynamic of gradient flow, the proposed model naturally stacks residual network blocks one by one, reducing the memory load and difficulty in performing end-to-end deep flow network training. We also develop adaptive time reparameterization of the flow network with a progressive refinement of the trajectory in probability space, which improves the model training efficiency and accuracy in practice. Using numerical experiments with synthetic and real data, we show that the proposed JKO-iFlow model achieves similar or better performance in generating new samples compared with the existing flow and diffusion models at a significantly reduced computational and memory cost.
The efficient construction of an anatomical model is one of the major challenges of patient-specific in-silico models of the human heart. Current methods frequently rely on linear statistical models, allowing no advanced topological changes, or requiring medical image segmentation followed by a meshing pipeline, which strongly depends on image resolution, quality, and modality. These approaches are therefore limited in their transferability to other imaging domains. In this work, the cardiac shape is reconstructed by means of three-dimensional deep signed distance functions with Lipschitz regularity. For this purpose, the shapes of cardiac MRI reconstructions are learned from public databases to model the spatial relation of multiple chambers in Cartesian space. We demonstrate that this approach is also capable of reconstructing anatomical models from partial data, such as point clouds from a single ventricle, or modalities different from the trained MRI, such as electroanatomical mapping, and in addition, allows us to generate new anatomical shapes by randomly sampling latent vectors.
We present a new nonlinear variational framework for simultaneously computing ground and excited states of quantum systems. Our approach is based on approximating wavefunctions in the linear span of basis functions that are augmented and optimized \emph{via} composition with normalizing flows. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated in the calculations of a large number of vibrational states of the triatomic H$_2$S molecule as well as ground and several excited electronic states of prototypical one-electron systems including the hydrogen atom, the molecular hydrogen ion, and a carbon atom in a single-active-electron approximation. The results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of energy predictions and accelerated basis-set convergence even when using normalizing flows with a small number of parameters. The present approach can be also seen as the optimization of a set of intrinsic coordinates that best capture the underlying physics within the given basis set.
As the development of formal proofs is a time-consuming task, it is important to devise ways of sharing the already written proofs to prevent wasting time redoing them. One of the challenges in this domain is to translate proofs written in proof assistants based on impredicative logics to proof assistants based on predicative logics, whenever impredicativity is not used in an essential way. In this paper we present a transformation for sharing proofs with a core predicative system supporting prenex universe polymorphism (like in Agda). It consists in trying to elaborate each term into a predicative universe polymorphic term as general as possible. The use of universe polymorphism is justified by the fact that mapping each universe to a fixed one in the target theory is not sufficient in most cases. During the elaboration, we need to solve unification problems in the equational theory of universe levels. In order to do this, we give a complete characterization of when a single equation admits a most general unifier. This characterization is then employed in an algorithm which uses a constraint-postponement strategy to solve unification problems. The proposed translation is of course partial, but in practice allows one to translate many proofs that do not use impredicativity in an essential way. Indeed, it was implemented in the tool Predicativize and then used to translate semi-automatically many non-trivial developments from Matita's library to Agda, including proofs of Bertrand's Postulate and Fermat's Little Theorem, which (as far as we know) were not available in Agda yet.
Consider sensitivity analysis to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and covariates. We formulate several multi-period sensitivity models to relax the corresponding versions of the assumption of sequential unconfounding. The primary sensitivity model involves only counterfactual outcomes, whereas the joint and product sensitivity models involve both counterfactual covariates and outcomes. We establish and compare explicit representations for the sharp and conservative bounds at the population level through convex optimization, depending only on the observed data. These results provide for the first time a satisfactory generalization from the marginal sensitivity model in the cross-sectional setting.
We study the transformed hazards model with intermittently observed time-dependent covariates for the censored outcome. Existing work assumes the availability of the whole trajectory of the time-dependent covariates, which is not realistic. We propose to combine kernel-weighted log-likelihood and sieve maximum log-likelihood estimation to conduct statistical inference. The method is robust and easy to implement. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and contribute to a rigorous theoretical framework for general kernel-weighted sieve M-estimators. Numerical studies corroborate our theoretical results and show that the proposed method has favorable performance over existing methods. An application to a COVID-19 study in Wuhan illustrates the practical utility of our method.
In this work, we propose differentially private methods for hypothesis testing, model averaging, and model selection for normal linear models. We consider Bayesian methods based on mixtures of $g$-priors and non-Bayesian methods based on likelihood-ratio statistics and information criteria. The procedures are asymptotically consistent and straightforward to implement with existing software. We focus on practical issues such as adjusting critical values so that hypothesis tests have adequate type I error rates and quantifying the uncertainty introduced by the privacy-ensuring mechanisms.
Context: Software model optimization is a process that automatically generates design alternatives, typically to enhance quantifiable non-functional properties of software systems, such as performance and reliability. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have shown to be effective in this context for assisting the designer in identifying trade-offs between the desired non-functional properties. Objective: In this work, we investigate the effects of imposing a time budget to limit the search for design alternatives, which inevitably affects the quality of the resulting alternatives. Method: The effects of time budgets are analyzed by investigating both the quality of the generated design alternatives and their structural features when varying the budget and the genetic algorithm (NSGA-II, PESA2, SPEA2). This is achieved by employing multi-objective quality indicators and a tree-based representation of the search space. Results: The study reveals that the time budget significantly affects the quality of Pareto fronts, especially for performance and reliability. NSGA-II is the fastest algorithm, while PESA2 generates the highest-quality solutions. The imposition of a time budget results in structurally distinct models compared to those obtained without a budget, indicating that the search process is influenced by both the budget and algorithm selection. Conclusions: In software model optimization, imposing a time budget can be effective in saving optimization time, but designers should carefully consider the trade-off between time and solution quality in the Pareto front, along with the structural characteristics of the generated models. By making informed choices about the specific genetic algorithm, designers can achieve different trade-offs.
This article investigates synthetic model-predictive control (MPC) problems to demonstrate that an increased precision of the internal prediction model (PM) automatially entails an improvement of the controller as a whole. In contrast to reinforcement learning (RL), MPC uses the PM to predict subsequent states of the controlled system (CS), instead of directly recommending suitable actions. To assess how the precision of the PM translates into the quality of the model-predictive controller, we compare a DNN-based PM to the optimal baseline PM for three well-known control problems of varying complexity. The baseline PM achieves perfect accuracy by accessing the simulation of the CS itself. Based on the obtained results, we argue that an improvement of the PM will always improve the controller as a whole, without considering the impact of other components such as action selection (which, in this article, relies on evolutionary optimization).
In natural language processing (NLP), deep neural networks (DNNs) could model complex interactions between context and have achieved impressive results on a range of NLP tasks. Prior works on feature interaction attribution mainly focus on studying symmetric interaction that only explains the additional influence of a set of words in combination, which fails to capture asymmetric influence that contributes to model prediction. In this work, we propose an asymmetric feature interaction attribution explanation model that aims to explore asymmetric higher-order feature interactions in the inference of deep neural NLP models. By representing our explanation with an directed interaction graph, we experimentally demonstrate interpretability of the graph to discover asymmetric feature interactions. Experimental results on two sentiment classification datasets show the superiority of our model against the state-of-the-art feature interaction attribution methods in identifying influential features for model predictions. Our code is available at //github.com/StillLu/ASIV.
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