Three critical issues for causal inference that often occur in modern, complicated experiments are interference, treatment nonadherence, and missing outcomes. A great deal of research efforts has been dedicated to developing causal inferential methodologies that address these issues separately. However, methodologies that can address these issues simultaneously are lacking. We propose a Bayesian causal inference methodology to address this gap. Our methodology extends existing causal frameworks and methods, specifically, two-staged randomized experiments and the principal stratification framework. In contrast to existing methods that invoke strong structural assumptions to identify principal causal effects, our Bayesian approach uses flexible distributional models that can accommodate the complexities of interference and missing outcomes, and that ensure that principal causal effects are weakly identifiable. We illustrate our methodology via simulation studies and a re-analysis of real-life data from an evaluation of India's National Health Insurance Program. Our methodology enables us to identify new active causal effects that were not identified in past analyses. Ultimately, our simulation studies and case study demonstrate how our methodology can yield more informative analyses in modern experiments with interference, treatment nonadherence, missing outcomes, and complicated outcome generation mechanisms.
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We propose a novel methodology (namely, MuLER) that transforms any reference-based evaluation metric for text generation, such as machine translation (MT) into a fine-grained analysis tool. Given a system and a metric, MuLER quantifies how much the chosen metric penalizes specific error types (e.g., errors in translating names of locations). MuLER thus enables a detailed error analysis which can lead to targeted improvement efforts for specific phenomena. We perform experiments in both synthetic and naturalistic settings to support MuLER's validity and showcase its usability in MT evaluation, and other tasks, such as summarization. Analyzing all submissions to WMT in 2014-2020, we find consistent trends. For example, nouns and verbs are among the most frequent POS tags. However, they are among the hardest to translate. Performance on most POS tags improves with overall system performance, but a few are not thus correlated (their identity changes from language to language). Preliminary experiments with summarization reveal similar trends.
Discovering causal relations from observational data is important. The existence of unobserved variables, such as latent confounders or mediators, can mislead the causal identification. To address this issue, proximal causal discovery methods proposed to adjust for the bias with the proxy of the unobserved variable. However, these methods presumed the data is discrete, which limits their real-world application. In this paper, we propose a proximal causal discovery method that can well handle the continuous variables. Our observation is that discretizing continuous variables can can lead to serious errors and comprise the power of the proxy. Therefore, to use proxy variables in the continuous case, the critical point is to control the discretization error. To this end, we identify mild regularity conditions on the conditional distributions, enabling us to control the discretization error to an infinitesimal level, as long as the proxy is discretized with sufficiently fine, finite bins. Based on this, we design a proxy-based hypothesis test for identifying causal relationships when unobserved variables are present. Our test is consistent, meaning it has ideal power when large samples are available. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method using synthetic and real-world data.
Treatment effect estimation from observational data is a central problem in causal inference. Methods based on potential outcomes framework solve this problem by exploiting inductive biases and heuristics from causal inference. Each of these methods addresses a specific aspect of treatment effect estimation, such as controlling propensity score, enforcing randomization, etc., by designing neural network architectures and regularizers. In this paper, we propose an adaptive method called Neurosymbolic Treatment Effect Estimator (NESTER), a generalized method for treatment effect estimation. NESTER brings together the ideas used in existing methods based on multi-head neural networks for treatment effect estimation into one framework. To perform program synthesis, we design a Domain Specific Language (DSL) for treatment effect estimation based on inductive biases used in literature. We also theoretically study NESTER's capability for treatment effect estimation. Our comprehensive empirical results show that NESTER performs better than state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets without compromising run time requirements.
Code verification plays an important role in establishing the credibility of computational simulations by assessing the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods. In computational electromagnetics, the numerical solution to integral equations incurs multiple interacting sources of numerical error, as well as other challenges, which render traditional code-verification approaches ineffective. In this paper, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources for the method-of-moments implementation of the combined-field integral equation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches for cases with and without coding errors.
Recent critiques of Physics Education Research (PER) studies have revoiced the critical issues when drawing causal inferences from observational data where no intervention is present. In response to a call for a "causal reasoning primer", this paper discusses some of the fundamental issues underlying statistical causal inference. In reviewing these issues, we discuss well-established causal inference methods commonly applied in other fields and discuss their application to PER. Using simulated data sets, we illustrate (i) why analysis for causal inference should control for confounders but not control for mediators and colliders and (ii) that multiple proposed causal models can fit a highly correlated data set. Finally, we discuss how these causal inference methods can be used to represent and explain existing issues in quantitative PER. Throughout, we discuss a central issue: quantitative results from observational studies cannot support a researcher's proposed causal model over other alternative models. To address this issue, we propose an explicit role for observational studies in PER that draw statistical causal inferences: proposing future intervention studies and predicting their outcomes. Mirroring a broader connection between theoretical motivating experiments in physics, observational studies in PER can make quantitative predictions of the causal effects of interventions, and future intervention studies can test those predictions directly.
This paper tackles the problem of missing data imputation for noisy and non-Gaussian data. A classical imputation method, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian mixture models, has shown interesting properties when compared to other popular approaches such as those based on k-nearest neighbors or on multiple imputations by chained equations. However, Gaussian mixture models are known to be non-robust to heterogeneous data, which can lead to poor estimation performance when the data is contaminated by outliers or follows non-Gaussian distributions. To overcome this issue, a new EM algorithm is investigated for mixtures of elliptical distributions with the property of handling potential missing data. This paper shows that this problem reduces to the estimation of a mixture of Angular Gaussian distributions under generic assumptions (i.e., each sample is drawn from a mixture of elliptical distributions, which is possibly different for one sample to another). In that case, the complete-data likelihood associated with mixtures of elliptical distributions is well adapted to the EM framework with missing data thanks to its conditional distribution, which is shown to be a multivariate $t$-distribution. Experimental results on synthetic data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is robust to outliers and can be used with non-Gaussian data. Furthermore, experiments conducted on real-world datasets show that this algorithm is very competitive when compared to other classical imputation methods.
In this paper, we tackle a critical issue in nonparametric inference for systems of interacting particles on Riemannian manifolds: the identifiability of the interaction functions. Specifically, we define the function spaces on which the interaction kernels can be identified given infinite i.i.d observational derivative data sampled from a distribution. Our methodology involves casting the learning problem as a linear statistical inverse problem using a operator theoretical framework. We prove the well-posedness of inverse problem by establishing the strict positivity of a related integral operator and our analysis allows us to refine the results on specific manifolds such as the sphere and Hyperbolic space. Our findings indicate that a numerically stable procedure exists to recover the interaction kernel from finite (noisy) data, and the estimator will be convergent to the ground truth. This also answers an open question in [MMQZ21] and demonstrate that least square estimators can be statistically optimal in certain scenarios. Finally, our theoretical analysis could be extended to the mean-field case, revealing that the corresponding nonparametric inverse problem is ill-posed in general and necessitates effective regularization techniques.
Supervised dimension reduction (SDR) has been a topic of growing interest in data science, as it enables the reduction of high-dimensional covariates while preserving the functional relation with certain response variables of interest. However, existing SDR methods are not suitable for analyzing datasets collected from case-control studies. In this setting, the goal is to learn and exploit the low-dimensional structure unique to or enriched by the case group, also known as the foreground group. While some unsupervised techniques such as the contrastive latent variable model and its variants have been developed for this purpose, they fail to preserve the functional relationship between the dimension-reduced covariates and the response variable. In this paper, we propose a supervised dimension reduction method called contrastive inverse regression (CIR) specifically designed for the contrastive setting. CIR introduces an optimization problem defined on the Stiefel manifold with a non-standard loss function. We prove the convergence of CIR to a local optimum using a gradient descent-based algorithm, and our numerical study empirically demonstrates the improved performance over competing methods for high-dimensional data.
This study examines the identifiability of interaction kernels in mean-field equations of interacting particles or agents, an area of growing interest across various scientific and engineering fields. The main focus is identifying data-dependent function spaces where a quadratic loss functional possesses a unique minimizer. We consider two data-adaptive $L^2$ spaces: one weighted by a data-adaptive measure and the other using the Lebesgue measure. In each $L^2$ space, we show that the function space of identifiability is the closure of the RKHS associated with the integral operator of inversion. Alongside prior research, our study completes a full characterization of identifiability in interacting particle systems with either finite or infinite particles, highlighting critical differences between these two settings. Moreover, the identifiability analysis has important implications for computational practice. It shows that the inverse problem is ill-posed, necessitating regularization. Our numerical demonstrations show that the weighted $L^2$ space is preferable over the unweighted $L^2$ space, as it yields more accurate regularized estimators.
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prevalent in education research, and are often regarded as a gold standard of causal inference. Two main virtues of randomized experiments are that they (1) do not suffer from confounding, thereby allowing for an unbiased estimate of an intervention's causal impact, and (2) allow for design-based inference, meaning that the physical act of randomization largely justifies the statistical assumptions made. However, RCT sample sizes are often small, leading to low precision; in many cases RCT estimates may be too imprecise to guide policy or inform science. Observational studies, by contrast, have strengths and weaknesses complementary to those of RCTs. Observational studies typically offer much larger sample sizes, but may suffer confounding. In many contexts, experimental and observational data exist side by side, allowing the possibility of integrating "big observational data" with "small but high-quality experimental data" to get the best of both. Such approaches hold particular promise in the field of education, where RCT sample sizes are often small due to cost constraints, but automatic collection of observational data, such as in computerized educational technology applications, or in state longitudinal data systems (SLDS) with administrative data on hundreds of thousand of students, has made rich, high-dimensional observational data widely available. We outline an approach that allows one to employ machine learning algorithms to learn from the observational data, and use the resulting models to improve precision in randomized experiments. Importantly, there is no requirement that the machine learning models are "correct" in any sense, and the final experimental results are guaranteed to be exactly unbiased. Thus, there is no danger of confounding biases in the observational data leaking into the experiment.
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