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To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear combination is subsequently used to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the treated unit had it not been treated in the post-treatment period, and used to estimate the treatment effect. Existing synthetic control methods rely on correctly modeling certain aspects of the counterfactual outcome generating mechanism and may require near-perfect matching of the pre-treatment trajectory. Inspired by proximal causal inference, we obtain two novel nonparametric identifying formulas for the average treatment effect for the treated unit: one is based on weighting, and the other combines models for the counterfactual outcome and the weighting function. We introduce the concept of covariate shift to synthetic controls to obtain these identification results conditional on the treatment assignment. We also develop two treatment effect estimators based on these two formulas and the generalized method of moments. One new estimator is doubly robust: it is consistent and asymptotically normal if at least one of the outcome and weighting models is correctly specified. We demonstrate the performance of the methods via simulations and apply them to evaluate the effectiveness of a Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the risk of all-cause pneumonia in Brazil.

Infertility is a global health problem, and an increasing number of couples are seeking medical assistance to achieve reproduction, at least half of which are caused by men. The success rate of assisted reproductive technologies depends on sperm assessment, in which experts determine whether sperm can be used for reproduction based on morphology and motility of sperm. Previous sperm assessment studies with deep learning have used datasets comprising images that include only sperm heads, which cannot consider motility and other morphologies of sperm. Furthermore, the labels of the dataset are one-hot, which provides insufficient support for experts, because assessment results are inconsistent between experts, and they have no absolute answer. Therefore, we constructed the video dataset for sperm assessment whose videos include sperm head as well as neck and tail, and its labels were annotated with soft-label. Furthermore, we proposed the sperm assessment framework and the neural network, RoSTFine, for sperm video recognition. Experimental results showed that RoSTFine could improve the sperm assessment performances compared to existing video recognition models and focus strongly on important sperm parts (i.e., head and neck).

Kernel ridge regression, KRR, is a generalization of linear ridge regression that is non-linear in the data, but linear in the parameters. Here, we introduce an equivalent formulation of the objective function of KRR, opening up both for using penalties other than the ridge penalty and for studying kernel ridge regression from the perspective of gradient descent. Using a continuous-time perspective, we derive a closed-form solution for solving kernel regression with gradient descent, something we refer to as kernel gradient flow, KGF, and theoretically bound the differences between KRR and KGF, where, for the latter, regularization is obtained through early stopping. We also generalize KRR by replacing the ridge penalty with the $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ penalties, respectively, and use the fact that analogous to the similarities between KGF and KRR, $\ell_1$ regularization and forward stagewise regression (also known as coordinate descent), and $\ell_\infty$ regularization and sign gradient descent, follow similar solution paths. We can thus alleviate the need for computationally heavy algorithms based on proximal gradient descent. We show theoretically and empirically how the $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ penalties, and the corresponding gradient-based optimization algorithms, produce sparse and robust kernel regression solutions, respectively.

Learning the ability to generalize knowledge between similar contexts is particularly important in medical imaging as data distributions can shift substantially from one hospital to another, or even from one machine to another. To strengthen generalization, most state-of-the-art techniques inject knowledge of the data distribution shifts by enforcing constraints on learned features or regularizing parameters. We offer an alternative approach: Learning from Privileged Medical Imaging Information (LPMII). We show that using some privileged information such as tumor shape or location leads to stronger domain generalization ability than current state-of-the-art techniques. This paper demonstrates that by using privileged information to predict the severity of intra-layer retinal fluid in optical coherence tomography scans, the classification accuracy of a deep learning model operating on out-of-distribution data improves from $0.911$ to $0.934$. This paper provides a strong starting point for using privileged information in other medical problems requiring generalization.

We propose a general method to break down a main complex task into a set of intermediary easier sub-tasks, which are formulated in natural language as binary questions related to the final target task. Our method allows for representing each example by a vector consisting of the answers to these questions. We call this representation Natural Language Learned Features (NLLF). NLLF is generated by a small transformer language model (e.g., BERT) that has been trained in a Natural Language Inference (NLI) fashion, using weak labels automatically obtained from a Large Language Model (LLM). We show that the LLM normally struggles for the main task using in-context learning, but can handle these easiest subtasks and produce useful weak labels to train a BERT. The NLI-like training of the BERT allows for tackling zero-shot inference with any binary question, and not necessarily the ones seen during the training. We show that this NLLF vector not only helps to reach better performances by enhancing any classifier, but that it can be used as input of an easy-to-interpret machine learning model like a decision tree. This decision tree is interpretable but also reaches high performances, surpassing those of a pre-trained transformer in some cases.We have successfully applied this method to two completely different tasks: detecting incoherence in students' answers to open-ended mathematics exam questions, and screening abstracts for a systematic literature review of scientific papers on climate change and agroecology.

Effective and rapid decision-making from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) requires unbiased and precise treatment effect inferences. Two strategies to address this requirement are to adjust for covariates that are highly correlated with the outcome, and to leverage historical control information via Bayes' theorem. We propose a new Bayesian prognostic covariate adjustment methodology, referred to as Bayesian PROCOVA, that combines these two strategies. Covariate adjustment in Bayesian PROCOVA is based on generative artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that construct a digital twin generator (DTG) for RCT participants. The DTG is trained on historical control data and yields a digital twin (DT) probability distribution for each RCT participant's outcome under the control treatment. The expectation of the DT distribution, referred to as the prognostic score, defines the covariate for adjustment. Historical control information is leveraged via an additive mixture prior with two components: an informative prior probability distribution specified based on historical control data, and a weakly informative prior distribution. The mixture weight determines the extent to which posterior inferences are drawn from the informative component, versus the weakly informative component. This weight has a prior distribution as well, and so the entire additive mixture prior is completely pre-specifiable without involving any RCT information. We establish an efficient Gibbs algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution, and derive closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and variance of the treatment effect parameter conditional on the weight, in Bayesian PROCOVA. We evaluate efficiency gains of Bayesian PROCOVA via its bias control and variance reduction compared to frequentist PROCOVA in simulation studies that encompass different discrepancies. These gains translate to smaller RCTs.

Laparoscopic surgery has been shown through a number of randomized trials to be an effective form of treatment for cholecystitis. Given this evidence, one natural question for clinical practice is: does the effectiveness of laparoscopic surgery vary among patients? It might be the case that, while the overall effect is positive, some patients treated with laparoscopic surgery may respond positively to the intervention while others do not or may be harmed. In our study, we focus on conditional average treatment effects to understand whether treatment effects vary systematically with patient characteristics. Recent methodological work has developed a meta-learner framework for flexible estimation of conditional causal effects. In this framework, nonparametric estimation methods can be used to avoid bias from model misspecification while preserving statistical efficiency. In addition, researchers can flexibly and effectively explore whether treatment effects vary with a large number of possible effect modifiers. However, these methods have certain limitations. For example, conducting inference can be challenging if black-box models are used. Further, interpreting and visualizing the effect estimates can be difficult when there are multi-valued effect modifiers. In this paper, we develop new methods that allow for interpretable results and inference from the meta-learner framework for heterogeneous treatment effects estimation. We also demonstrate methods that allow for an exploratory analysis to identify possible effect modifiers. We apply our methods to a large database for the use of laparoscopic surgery in treating cholecystitis. We also conduct a series of simulation studies to understand the relative performance of the methods we develop. Our study provides key guidelines for the interpretation of conditional causal effects from the meta-learner framework.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.

Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.