Building energy prediction and management has become increasingly important in recent decades, driven by the growth of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and the availability of more energy data. However, energy data is often collected from multiple sources and can be incomplete or inconsistent, which can hinder accurate predictions and management of energy systems and limit the usefulness of the data for decision-making and research. To address this issue, past studies have focused on imputing missing gaps in energy data, including random and continuous gaps. One of the main challenges in this area is the lack of validation on a benchmark dataset with various building and meter types, making it difficult to accurately evaluate the performance of different imputation methods. Another challenge is the lack of application of state-of-the-art imputation methods for missing gaps in energy data. Contemporary image-inpainting methods, such as Partial Convolution (PConv), have been widely used in the computer vision domain and have demonstrated their effectiveness in dealing with complex missing patterns. To study whether energy data imputation can benefit from the image-based deep learning method, this study compared PConv, Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and weekly persistence method using one of the biggest publicly available whole building energy datasets, consisting of 1479 power meters worldwide, as the benchmark. The results show that, compared to the CNN with the raw time series (1D-CNN) and the weekly persistence method, neural network models with reshaped energy data with two dimensions reduced the Mean Squared Error (MSE) by 10% to 30%. The advanced deep learning method, Partial convolution (PConv), has further reduced the MSE by 20-30% than 2D-CNN and stands out among all models.
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The efficient representation of random fields on geometrically complex domains is crucial for Bayesian modelling in engineering and machine learning. Today's prevalent random field representations are either intended for unbounded domains or are too restrictive in terms of possible field properties. Because of these limitations, techniques leveraging the historically established link between stochastic PDEs (SPDEs) and random fields have been gaining interest. The SPDE representation is especially appealing for engineering applications which already have a finite element discretisation for solving the physical conservation equations. In contrast to the dense covariance matrix of a random field, its inverse, the precision matrix, is usually sparse and equal to the stiffness matrix of an elliptic SPDE. We use the SPDE representation to develop a scalable framework for large-scale statistical finite element analysis and Gaussian process (GP) regression on complex geometries. The statistical finite element method (statFEM) introduced by Girolami et al. (2022) is a novel approach for synthesising measurement data and finite element models. In both statFEM and GP regression, we use the SPDE formulation to obtain the relevant prior probability densities with a sparse precision matrix. The properties of the priors are governed by the parameters and possibly fractional order of the SPDE so that we can model on bounded domains and manifolds anisotropic, non-stationary random fields with arbitrary smoothness. The observation models for statFEM and GP regression are such that the posterior probability densities are Gaussians with a closed-form mean and precision. The respective mean vector and precision matrix and can be evaluated using only sparse matrix operations. We demonstrate the versatility of the proposed framework and its convergence properties with Poisson and thin-shell examples.
There is growing interest in Bayesian clinical trial designs with informative prior distributions, e.g. for extrapolation of adult data to pediatrics, or use of external controls. While the classical type I error is commonly used to evaluate such designs, it cannot be strictly controlled and it is acknowledged that other metrics may be more appropriate. We focus on two common situations - borrowing control data or information on the treatment contrast - and discuss several fully probabilistic metrics to evaluate the risk of false positive conclusions. Each metric requires specification of a design prior, which can differ from the analysis prior and permits understanding of the behaviour of a Bayesian design under scenarios where the analysis prior differs from the true data generation process. The metrics include the average type I error and the pre-posterior probability of a false positive result. We show that, when borrowing control data, the average type I error is asymptotically (in certain cases strictly) controlled when the analysis and design prior coincide. We illustrate use of these Bayesian metrics with real applications, and discuss how they could facilitate discussions between sponsors, regulators and other stakeholders about the appropriateness of Bayesian borrowing designs for pivotal studies.
Correlation matrix visualization is essential for understanding the relationships between variables in a dataset, but missing data can pose a significant challenge in estimating correlation coefficients. In this paper, we compare the effects of various missing data methods on the correlation plot, focusing on two common missing patterns: random and monotone. We aim to provide practical strategies and recommendations for researchers and practitioners in creating and analyzing the correlation plot. Our experimental results suggest that while imputation is commonly used for missing data, using imputed data for plotting the correlation matrix may lead to a significantly misleading inference of the relation between the features. We recommend using DPER, a direct parameter estimation approach, for plotting the correlation matrix based on its performance in the experiments.
Bayesian binary regression is a prosperous area of research due to the computational challenges encountered by currently available methods either for high-dimensional settings or large datasets, or both. In the present work, we focus on the expectation propagation (EP) approximation of the posterior distribution in Bayesian probit regression under a multivariate Gaussian prior distribution. Adapting more general derivations in Anceschi et al. (2023), we show how to leverage results on the extended multivariate skew-normal distribution to derive an efficient implementation of the EP routine having a per-iteration cost that scales linearly in the number of covariates. This makes EP computationally feasible also in challenging high-dimensional settings, as shown in a detailed simulation study.
Trial-to-trial effects have been found in a number of studies, indicating that processing a stimulus influences responses in subsequent trials. A special case are priming effects which have been modelled successfully with error-driven learning (Marsolek, 2008), implying that participants are continuously learning during experiments. This study investigates whether trial-to-trial learning can be detected in an unprimed lexical decision experiment. We used the Discriminative Lexicon Model (DLM; Baayen et al., 2019), a model of the mental lexicon with meaning representations from distributional semantics, which models error-driven incremental learning with the Widrow-Hoff rule. We used data from the British Lexicon Project (BLP; Keuleers et al., 2012) and simulated the lexical decision experiment with the DLM on a trial-by-trial basis for each subject individually. Then, reaction times were predicted with Generalised Additive Models (GAMs), using measures derived from the DLM simulations as predictors. We extracted measures from two simulations per subject (one with learning updates between trials and one without), and used them as input to two GAMs. Learning-based models showed better model fit than the non-learning ones for the majority of subjects. Our measures also provide insights into lexical processing and individual differences. This demonstrates the potential of the DLM to model behavioural data and leads to the conclusion that trial-to-trial learning can indeed be detected in unprimed lexical decision. Our results support the possibility that our lexical knowledge is subject to continuous changes.
Distributed averaging is among the most relevant cooperative control problems, with applications in sensor and robotic networks, distributed signal processing, data fusion, and load balancing. Consensus and gossip algorithms have been investigated and successfully deployed in multi-agent systems to perform distributed averaging in synchronous and asynchronous settings. This study proposes a heuristic approach to estimate the convergence rate of averaging algorithms in a distributed manner, relying on the computation and propagation of local graph metrics while entailing simple data elaboration and small message passing. The protocol enables nodes to predict the time (or the number of interactions) needed to estimate the global average with the desired accuracy. Consequently, nodes can make informed decisions on their use of measured and estimated data while gaining awareness of the global structure of the network, as well as their role in it. The study presents relevant applications to outliers identification and performance evaluation in switching topologies.
Timely response of Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) is constrained by the flow generation process which requires accumulation of network packets. This paper introduces Multivariate Time Series (MTS) early detection into NIDS to identify malicious flows prior to their arrival at target systems. With this in mind, we first propose a novel feature extractor, Time Series Network Flow Meter (TS-NFM), that represents network flow as MTS with explainable features, and a new benchmark dataset is created using TS-NFM and the meta-data of CICIDS2017, called SCVIC-TS-2022. Additionally, a new deep learning-based early detection model called Multi-Domain Transformer (MDT) is proposed, which incorporates the frequency domain into Transformer. This work further proposes a Multi-Domain Multi-Head Attention (MD-MHA) mechanism to improve the ability of MDT to extract better features. Based on the experimental results, the proposed methodology improves the earliness of the conventional NIDS (i.e., percentage of packets that are used for classification) by 5x10^4 times and duration-based earliness (i.e., percentage of duration of the classified packets of a flow) by a factor of 60, resulting in a 84.1% macro F1 score (31% higher than Transformer) on SCVIC-TS-2022. Additionally, the proposed MDT outperforms the state-of-the-art early detection methods by 5% and 6% on ECG and Wafer datasets, respectively.
Product development projects usually contain many interrelated activities with complex information dependences, which induce activity rework, project delay and cost overrun. To reduce negative impacts, scheduling interrelated activities in an appropriate sequence is an important issue for project managers. This study develops a double-decomposition based parallel branch-and-prune algorithm, to determine the optimal activity sequence that minimizes the total feedback length (FLMP). This algorithm decomposes FLMP from two perspectives, which enables the use of all available computing resources to solve subproblems concurrently. In addition, we propose a result-compression strategy and a hash-address strategy to enhance this algorithm. Experimental results indicate that our algorithm can find the optimal sequence for FLMP up to 27 activities within 1 hour, and outperforms state of the art exact algorithms.
We provide a new sequent calculus that enjoys syntactic cut-elimination and strongly terminating backward proof search for the intuitionistic Strong L\"ob logic $\sf{iSL}$, an intuitionistic modal logic with a provability interpretation. A novel measure on sequents is used to prove both the termination of the naive backward proof search strategy, and the admissibility of cut in a syntactic and direct way, leading to a straightforward cut-elimination procedure. All proofs have been formalised in the interactive theorem prover Coq.
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In particular, for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes, Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods applied to compute the doubly intractable posterior distribution are not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we first unify existing variational Bayes approaches under a general nonparametric inference framework, and analyse the asymptotic properties of these methods under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the nonlinear model. Secondly, we propose a novel sparsity-inducing procedure, and derive an adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for the popular sigmoid Hawkes processes. Our algorithm is parallelisable and therefore computationally efficient in high-dimensional setting. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we also demonstrate that our procedure is able to adapt to the dimensionality of the parameter of the Hawkes process, and is partially robust to some type of model mis-specification.
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