The effective detection of evidence of financial anomalies requires collaboration among multiple entities who own a diverse set of data, such as a payment network system (PNS) and its partner banks. Trust among these financial institutions is limited by regulation and competition. Federated learning (FL) enables entities to collaboratively train a model when data is either vertically or horizontally partitioned across the entities. However, in real-world financial anomaly detection scenarios, the data is partitioned both vertically and horizontally and hence it is not possible to use existing FL approaches in a plug-and-play manner. Our novel solution, PV4FAD, combines fully homomorphic encryption (HE), secure multi-party computation (SMPC), differential privacy (DP), and randomization techniques to balance privacy and accuracy during training and to prevent inference threats at model deployment time. Our solution provides input privacy through HE and SMPC, and output privacy against inference time attacks through DP. Specifically, we show that, in the honest-but-curious threat model, banks do not learn any sensitive features about PNS transactions, and the PNS does not learn any information about the banks' dataset but only learns prediction labels. We also develop and analyze a DP mechanism to protect output privacy during inference. Our solution generates high-utility models by significantly reducing the per-bank noise level while satisfying distributed DP. To ensure high accuracy, our approach produces an ensemble model, in particular, a random forest. This enables us to take advantage of the well-known properties of ensembles to reduce variance and increase accuracy. Our solution won second prize in the first phase of the U.S. Privacy Enhancing Technologies (PETs) Prize Challenge.
We consider the problem of policy transfer between two Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We introduce a lemma based on existing theoretical results in reinforcement learning to measure the relativity gap between two arbitrary MDPs, that is the difference between any two cumulative expected returns defined on different policies and environment dynamics. Based on this lemma, we propose two new algorithms referred to as Relative Policy Optimization (RPO) and Relative Transition Optimization (RTO), which offer fast policy transfer and dynamics modelling, respectively. RPO transfers the policy evaluated in one environment to maximize the return in another, while RTO updates the parameterized dynamics model to reduce the gap between the dynamics of the two environments. Integrating the two algorithms results in the complete Relative Policy-Transition Optimization (RPTO) algorithm, in which the policy interacts with the two environments simultaneously, such that data collections from two environments, policy and transition updates are completed in one closed loop to form a principled learning framework for policy transfer. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RPTO on a set of MuJoCo continuous control tasks by creating policy transfer problems via variant dynamics.
The success of Federated Learning (FL) depends on the quantity and quality of the data owners (DOs) as well as their motivation to join FL model training. Reputation-based FL participant selection methods have been proposed. However, they still face the challenges of the cold start problem and potential selection bias towards highly reputable DOs. Such a bias can result in lower reputation DOs being prematurely excluded from future FL training rounds, thereby reducing the diversity of training data and the generalizability of the resulting models. To address these challenges, we propose the Gradual Participant Selection scheme for Auction-based Federated Learning (GPS-AFL). Unlike existing AFL incentive mechanisms which generally assume that all DOs required for an FL task must be selected in one go, GPS-AFL gradually selects the required DOs over multiple rounds of training as more information is revealed through repeated interactions. It is designed to strike a balance between cost saving and performance enhancement, while mitigating the drawbacks of selection bias in reputation-based FL. Extensive experiments based on real-world datasets demonstrate the significant advantages of GPS-AFL, which reduces costs by 33.65% and improved total utility by 2.91%, on average compared to the best-performing state-of-the-art approach.
Mediation analysis is an important statistical tool in many research fields. Its aim is to investigate the mechanism along the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The joint significance test is widely utilized as a prominent statistical approach for examining mediation effects in practical applications. Nevertheless, the limitation of this mediation testing method stems from its conservative Type I error, which reduces its statistical power and imposes certain constraints on its popularity and utility. The proposed solution to address this gap is the adaptive joint significance test for one mediator, a novel data-adaptive test for mediation effect that exhibits significant advancements compared to traditional joint significance test. The proposed method is designed to be user-friendly, eliminating the need for complicated procedures. We have derived explicit expressions for size and power, ensuring the theoretical validity of our approach. Furthermore, we extend the proposed adaptive joint significance tests for small-scale mediation hypotheses with family-wise error rate (FWER) control. Additionally, a novel adaptive Sobel-type approach is proposed for the estimation of confidence intervals for the mediation effects, demonstrating significant advancements over conventional Sobel's confidence intervals in terms of achieving desirable coverage probabilities. Our mediation testing and confidence intervals procedure is evaluated through comprehensive simulations, and compared with numerous existing approaches. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our method by analysing three real-world datasets with continuous, binary and time-to-event outcomes, respectively.
Evaluating the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment on an outcome often involves overcoming the challenges posed by confounding factors in observational studies. A traditional approach uses the back-door criterion, seeking adjustment sets to block confounding paths between treatment and outcome. However, this method struggles with unmeasured confounders. As an alternative, the front-door criterion offers a solution, even in the presence of unmeasured confounders between treatment and outcome. This method relies on identifying mediators that are not directly affected by these confounders and that completely mediate the treatment's effect. Here, we introduce novel estimation strategies for the front-door criterion based on the targeted minimum loss-based estimation theory. Our estimators work across diverse scenarios, handling binary, continuous, and multivariate mediators. They leverage data-adaptive machine learning algorithms, minimizing assumptions and ensuring key statistical properties like asymptotic linearity, double-robustness, efficiency, and valid estimates within the target parameter space. We establish conditions under which the nuisance functional estimations ensure the root n-consistency of ACE estimators. Our numerical experiments show the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. We demonstrate the applicability of these estimators to analyze the effect of early stage academic performance on future yearly income using data from the Finnish Social Science Data Archive.
Recent advances in learning techniques have garnered attention for their applicability to a diverse range of real-world sequential decision-making problems. Yet, many practical applications have critical constraints for operation in real environments. Most learning solutions often neglect the risk of failing to meet these constraints, hindering their implementation in real-world contexts. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware decision-making framework for contextual bandit problems, accommodating constraints and continuous action spaces. Our approach employs an actor multi-critic architecture, with each critic characterizing the distribution of performance and constraint metrics. Our framework is designed to cater to various risk levels, effectively balancing constraint satisfaction against performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we first compare it against state-of-the-art baseline methods in a synthetic environment, highlighting the impact of intrinsic environmental noise across different risk configurations. Finally, we evaluate our framework in a real-world use case involving a 5G mobile network where only our approach consistently satisfies the system constraint (a signal processing reliability target) with a small performance toll (8.5% increase in power consumption).
This work presents insights gained by investigating the relationship between algorithmic fairness and the concept of secure information flow. The problem of enforcing secure information flow is well-studied in the context of information security: If secret information may "flow" through an algorithm or program in such a way that it can influence the program's output, then that is considered insecure information flow as attackers could potentially observe (parts of) the secret. There is a strong correspondence between secure information flow and algorithmic fairness: if protected attributes such as race, gender, or age are treated as secret program inputs, then secure information flow means that these ``secret'' attributes cannot influence the result of a program. While most research in algorithmic fairness evaluation concentrates on studying the impact of algorithms (often treating the algorithm as a black-box), the concepts derived from information flow can be used both for the analysis of disparate treatment as well as disparate impact w.r.t. a structural causal model. In this paper, we examine the relationship between quantitative as well as qualitative information-flow properties and fairness. Moreover, based on this duality, we derive a new quantitative notion of fairness called fairness spread, which can be easily analyzed using quantitative information flow and which strongly relates to counterfactual fairness. We demonstrate that off-the-shelf tools for information-flow properties can be used in order to formally analyze a program's algorithmic fairness properties, including the new notion of fairness spread as well as established notions such as demographic parity.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.