In this work we introduce a computational efficient data-driven framework suitable for quantifying the uncertainty in physical parameters of computer models, represented by differential equations. We construct physics-informed priors for differential equations, which are multi-output Gaussian process (GP) priors that encode the model's structure in the covariance function. We extend this into a fully Bayesian framework which allows quantifying the uncertainty of physical parameters and model predictions. Since physical models are usually imperfect descriptions of the real process, we allow the model to deviate from the observed data by considering a discrepancy function. For inference Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling is used. This work is motivated by the need for interpretable parameters for the hemodynamics of the heart for personal treatment of hypertension. The model used is the arterial Windkessel model, which represents the hemodynamics of the heart through differential equations with physically interpretable parameters of medical interest. As most physical models, the Windkessel model is an imperfect description of the real process. To demonstrate our approach we simulate noisy data from a more complex physical model with known mathematical connections to our modeling choice. We show that without accounting for discrepancy, the posterior of the physical parameters deviates from the true value while when accounting for discrepancy gives reasonable quantification of physical parameters uncertainty and reduces the uncertainty in subsequent model predictions.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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This work proposes a new framework of model reduction for parametric complex systems. The framework employs a popular model reduction technique dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is capable of combining data-driven learning and physics ingredients based on the Koopman operator theory. In the offline step of the proposed framework, DMD constructs a low-rank linear surrogate model for the high dimensional quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from the (nonlinear) complex high fidelity models (HFMs) of unknown forms. Then in the online step, the resulting local reduced order bases (ROBs) and parametric reduced order models (PROMs) at the training parameter sample points are interpolated to construct a new PROM with the corresponding ROB for a new set of target/test parameter values. The interpolations need to be done on the appropriate manifolds within consistent sets of generalized coordinates. The proposed framework is illustrated by numerical examples for both linear and nonlinear problems. In particular, its advantages in computational costs and accuracy are demonstrated by the comparisons with projection-based proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-PROM and Kriging.
Safety is critical in autonomous robotic systems. A safe control law ensures forward invariance of a safe set (a subset in the state space). It has been extensively studied regarding how to derive a safe control law with a control-affine analytical dynamic model. However, in complex environments and tasks, it is challenging and time-consuming to obtain a principled analytical model of the system. In these situations, data-driven learning is extensively used and the learned models are encoded in neural networks. How to formally derive a safe control law with Neural Network Dynamic Models (NNDM) remains unclear due to the lack of computationally tractable methods to deal with these black-box functions. In fact, even finding the control that minimizes an objective for NNDM without any safety constraint is still challenging. In this work, we propose MIND-SIS (Mixed Integer for Neural network Dynamic model with Safety Index Synthesis), the first method to derive safe control laws for NNDM. The method includes two parts: 1) SIS: an algorithm for the offline synthesis of the safety index (also called as barrier function), which uses evolutionary methods and 2) MIND: an algorithm for online computation of the optimal and safe control signal, which solves a constrained optimization using a computationally efficient encoding of neural networks. It has been theoretically proved that MIND-SIS guarantees forward invariance and finite convergence. And it has been numerically validated that MIND-SIS achieves safe and optimal control of NNDM. From our experiments, the optimality gap is less than $10^{-8}$, and the safety constraint violation is $0$.
Bayesian policy reuse (BPR) is a general policy transfer framework for selecting a source policy from an offline library by inferring the task belief based on some observation signals and a trained observation model. In this paper, we propose an improved BPR method to achieve more efficient policy transfer in deep reinforcement learning (DRL). First, most BPR algorithms use the episodic return as the observation signal that contains limited information and cannot be obtained until the end of an episode. Instead, we employ the state transition sample, which is informative and instantaneous, as the observation signal for faster and more accurate task inference. Second, BPR algorithms usually require numerous samples to estimate the probability distribution of the tabular-based observation model, which may be expensive and even infeasible to learn and maintain, especially when using the state transition sample as the signal. Hence, we propose a scalable observation model based on fitting state transition functions of source tasks from only a small number of samples, which can generalize to any signals observed in the target task. Moreover, we extend the offline-mode BPR to the continual learning setting by expanding the scalable observation model in a plug-and-play fashion, which can avoid negative transfer when faced with new unknown tasks. Experimental results show that our method can consistently facilitate faster and more efficient policy transfer.
In this work, we introduce a novel approach to formulating an artificial viscosity for shock capturing in nonlinear hyperbolic systems by utilizing the property that the solutions of hyperbolic conservation laws are not reversible in time in the vicinity of shocks. The proposed approach does not require any additional governing equations or a priori knowledge of the hyperbolic system in question, is independent of the mesh and approximation order, and requires the use of only one tunable parameter. The primary novelty is that the resulting artificial viscosity is unique for each component of the conservation law which is advantageous for systems in which some components exhibit discontinuities while others do not. The efficacy of the method is shown in numerical experiments of multi-dimensional hyperbolic conservation laws such as nonlinear transport, Euler equations, and ideal magnetohydrodynamics using a high-order discontinuous spectral element method on unstructured grids.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
Collision avoidance is a widely investigated topic in robotic applications. When applying collision avoidance techniques to a mobile robot, how to deal with the spatial structure of the robot still remains a challenge. In this paper, we design a configuration-aware safe control law by solving a Quadratic Programming (QP) with designed Control Barrier Functions (CBFs) constraints, which can safely navigate a mobile robotic arm to a desired region while avoiding collision with environmental obstacles. The advantage of our approach is that it correctly and in an elegant way incorporates the spatial structure of the mobile robotic arm. This is achieved by merging geometric restrictions among mobile robotic arm links into CBFs constraints. Simulations on a rigid rod and the modeled mobile robotic arm are performed to verify the feasibility and time-efficiency of proposed method. Numerical results about the time consuming for different degrees of freedom illustrate that our method scales well with dimension.
We propose a novel federated learning paradigm to model data variability among heterogeneous clients in multi-centric studies. Our method is expressed through a hierarchical Bayesian latent variable model, where client-specific parameters are assumed to be realization from a global distribution at the master level, which is in turn estimated to account for data bias and variability across clients. We show that our framework can be effectively optimized through expectation maximization (EM) over latent master's distribution and clients' parameters. We also introduce formal differential privacy (DP) guarantees compatibly with our EM optimization scheme. We tested our method on the analysis of multi-modal medical imaging data and clinical scores from distributed clinical datasets of patients affected by Alzheimer's disease. We demonstrate that our method is robust when data is distributed either in iid and non-iid manners, even when local parameters perturbation is included to provide DP guarantees. Moreover, the variability of data, views and centers can be quantified in an interpretable manner, while guaranteeing high-quality data reconstruction as compared to state-of-the-art autoencoding models and federated learning schemes. The code is available at //gitlab.inria.fr/epione/federated-multi-views-ppca.
We propose a simple yet powerful extension of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees which we name Hierarchical Embedded BART (HE-BART). The model allows for random effects to be included at the terminal node level of a set of regression trees, making HE-BART a non-parametric alternative to mixed effects models which avoids the need for the user to specify the structure of the random effects in the model, whilst maintaining the prediction and uncertainty calibration properties of standard BART. Using simulated and real-world examples, we demonstrate that this new extension yields superior predictions for many of the standard mixed effects models' example data sets, and yet still provides consistent estimates of the random effect variances. In a future version of this paper, we outline its use in larger, more advanced data sets and structures.
In the pooled data problem we are given a set of $n$ agents, each of which holds a hidden state bit, either $0$ or $1$. A querying procedure returns for a query set the sum of the states of the queried agents. The goal is to reconstruct the states using as few queries as possible. In this paper we consider two noise models for the pooled data problem. In the noisy channel model, the result for each agent flips with a certain probability. In the noisy query model, each query result is subject to random Gaussian noise. Our results are twofold. First, we present and analyze for both error models a simple and efficient distributed algorithm that reconstructs the initial states in a greedy fashion. Our novel analysis pins down the range of error probabilities and distributions for which our algorithm reconstructs the exact initial states with high probability. Secondly, we present simulation results of our algorithm and compare its performance with approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms that are conjectured to be optimal in a number of related problems.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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