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In uncertainty quantification, variance-based global sensitivity analysis quantitatively determines the effect of each input random variable on the output by partitioning the total output variance into contributions from each input. However, computing conditional expectations can be prohibitively costly when working with expensive-to-evaluate models. Surrogate models can accelerate this, yet their accuracy depends on the quality and quantity of training data, which is expensive to generate (experimentally or computationally) for complex engineering systems. Thus, methods that work with limited data are desirable. We propose a diffeomorphic modulation under observable response preserving homotopy (D-MORPH) regression to train a polynomial dimensional decomposition surrogate of the output that minimizes the number of training data. The new method first computes a sparse Lasso solution and uses it to define the cost function. A subsequent D-MORPH regression minimizes the difference between the D-MORPH and Lasso solution. The resulting D-MORPH surrogate is more robust to input variations and more accurate with limited training data. We illustrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the new surrogate for global sensitivity analysis using mathematical functions and an expensive-to-simulate model of char combustion. The new method is highly efficient, requiring only 15% of the training data compared to conventional regression.

Delays and asynchrony are inevitable in large-scale machine-learning problems where communication plays a key role. As such, several works have extensively analyzed stochastic optimization with delayed gradients. However, as far as we are aware, no analogous theory is available for min-max optimization, a topic that has gained recent popularity due to applications in adversarial robustness, game theory, and reinforcement learning. Motivated by this gap, we examine the performance of standard min-max optimization algorithms with delayed gradient updates. First, we show (empirically) that even small delays can cause prominent algorithms like Extra-gradient (\texttt{EG}) to diverge on simple instances for which \texttt{EG} guarantees convergence in the absence of delays. Our empirical study thus suggests the need for a careful analysis of delayed versions of min-max optimization algorithms. Accordingly, under suitable technical assumptions, we prove that Gradient Descent-Ascent (\texttt{GDA}) and \texttt{EG} with delayed updates continue to guarantee convergence to saddle points for convex-concave and strongly convex-strongly concave settings. Our complexity bounds reveal, in a transparent manner, the slow-down in convergence caused by delays.

The learning of Gaussian Mixture Models (also referred to simply as GMMs) plays an important role in machine learning. Known for their expressiveness and interpretability, Gaussian mixture models have a wide range of applications, from statistics, computer vision to distributional reinforcement learning. However, as of today, few known algorithms can fit or learn these models, some of which include Expectation-Maximization algorithms and Sliced Wasserstein Distance. Even fewer algorithms are compatible with gradient descent, the common learning process for neural networks. In this paper, we derive a closed formula of two GMMs in the univariate, one-dimensional case, then propose a distance function called Sliced Cram\'er 2-distance for learning general multivariate GMMs. Our approach has several advantages over many previous methods. First, it has a closed-form expression for the univariate case and is easy to compute and implement using common machine learning libraries (e.g., PyTorch and TensorFlow). Second, it is compatible with gradient descent, which enables us to integrate GMMs with neural networks seamlessly. Third, it can fit a GMM not only to a set of data points, but also to another GMM directly, without sampling from the target model. And fourth, it has some theoretical guarantees like global gradient boundedness and unbiased sampling gradient. These features are especially useful for distributional reinforcement learning and Deep Q Networks, where the goal is to learn a distribution over future rewards. We will also construct a Gaussian Mixture Distributional Deep Q Network as a toy example to demonstrate its effectiveness. Compared with previous models, this model is parameter efficient in terms of representing a distribution and possesses better interpretability.

I consider a class of statistical decision problems in which the policy maker must decide between two alternative policies to maximize social welfare based on a finite sample. The central assumption is that the underlying, possibly infinite-dimensional parameter, lies in a known convex set, potentially leading to partial identification of the welfare effect. An example of such restrictions is the smoothness of counterfactual outcome functions. As the main theoretical result, I derive a finite-sample, exact minimax regret decision rule within the class of all decision rules under normal errors with known variance. When the error distribution is unknown, I obtain a feasible decision rule that is asymptotically minimax regret. I apply my results to the problem of whether to change a policy eligibility cutoff in a regression discontinuity setup, and illustrate them in an empirical application to a school construction program in Burkina Faso.

Low-code development platforms provide an accessible infrastructure for the creation of software by domain experts, also called "citizen developers", without the need for formal programming education. Development is facilitated through graphical user interfaces, although traditional programming can still be used to extend low-code applications, for example when external services or complex business logic needs to be implemented that cannot be realized with the features available on a platform. Since citizen developers are usually not specifically trained in software development, they require additional support when writing code, particularly with regard to security and advanced techniques like debugging or versioning. In this thesis, several options to assist developers of low-code applications are investigated and implemented. A framework to quickly build code editor extensions is developed, and an approach to leverage the Roslyn compiler platform to implement custom static code analysis rules for low-code development platforms using the .NET platform is demonstrated. Furthermore, a sample application showing how Roslyn can be used to build a simple, integrated debugging tool, as well as an abstraction of the version control system Git for easier usage by citizen developers, is implemented. Security is a critical aspect when low-code applications are deployed. To provide an overview over possible options to ensure the secure and isolated execution of low-code applications, a threat model is developed and used as the basis for a comparison between OS-level virtualization, sandboxing, and runtime code security implementations.

We investigate a generalized framework for estimating latent low-rank tensors in an online setting, encompassing both linear and generalized linear models. This framework offers a flexible approach for handling continuous or categorical variables. Additionally, we investigate two specific applications: online tensor completion and online binary tensor learning. To address these challenges, we propose the online Riemannian gradient descent algorithm, which demonstrates linear convergence and the ability to recover the low-rank component under appropriate conditions in all applications. Furthermore, we establish a precise entry-wise error bound for online tensor completion. Notably, our work represents the first attempt to incorporate noise in the online low-rank tensor recovery task. Intriguingly, we observe a surprising trade-off between computational and statistical aspects in the presence of noise. Increasing the step size accelerates convergence but leads to higher statistical error, whereas a smaller step size yields a statistically optimal estimator at the expense of slower convergence. Moreover, we conduct regret analysis for online tensor regression. Under the fixed step size regime, a fascinating trilemma concerning the convergence rate, statistical error rate, and regret is observed. With an optimal choice of step size we achieve an optimal regret of $O(\sqrt{T})$. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to the adaptive setting where the horizon T is unknown. In this case, we demonstrate that by employing different step sizes, we can attain a statistically optimal error rate along with a regret of $O(\log T)$. To validate our theoretical claims, we provide numerical results that corroborate our findings and support our assertions.

Diffusion models are a class of deep generative models that have shown impressive results on various tasks with dense theoretical founding. Although diffusion models have achieved impressive quality and diversity of sample synthesis than other state-of-the-art models, they still suffer from costly sampling procedure and sub-optimal likelihood estimation. Recent studies have shown great enthusiasm on improving the performance of diffusion model. In this article, we present a first comprehensive review of existing variants of the diffusion models. Specifically, we provide a first taxonomy of diffusion models and categorize them variants to three types, namely sampling-acceleration enhancement, likelihood-maximization enhancement and data-generalization enhancement. We also introduce in detail other five generative models (i.e., variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, normalizing flow, autoregressive models, and energy-based models), and clarify the connections between diffusion models and these generative models. Then we make a thorough investigation into the applications of diffusion models, including computer vision, natural language processing, waveform signal processing, multi-modal modeling, molecular graph generation, time series modeling, and adversarial purification. Furthermore, we propose new perspectives pertaining to the development of this generative model.

The generalization mystery in deep learning is the following: Why do over-parameterized neural networks trained with gradient descent (GD) generalize well on real datasets even though they are capable of fitting random datasets of comparable size? Furthermore, from among all solutions that fit the training data, how does GD find one that generalizes well (when such a well-generalizing solution exists)? We argue that the answer to both questions lies in the interaction of the gradients of different examples during training. Intuitively, if the per-example gradients are well-aligned, that is, if they are coherent, then one may expect GD to be (algorithmically) stable, and hence generalize well. We formalize this argument with an easy to compute and interpretable metric for coherence, and show that the metric takes on very different values on real and random datasets for several common vision networks. The theory also explains a number of other phenomena in deep learning, such as why some examples are reliably learned earlier than others, why early stopping works, and why it is possible to learn from noisy labels. Moreover, since the theory provides a causal explanation of how GD finds a well-generalizing solution when one exists, it motivates a class of simple modifications to GD that attenuate memorization and improve generalization. Generalization in deep learning is an extremely broad phenomenon, and therefore, it requires an equally general explanation. We conclude with a survey of alternative lines of attack on this problem, and argue that the proposed approach is the most viable one on this basis.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

In this monograph, I introduce the basic concepts of Online Learning through a modern view of Online Convex Optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I present first-order and second-order algorithms for online learning with convex losses, in Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. All the algorithms are clearly presented as instantiation of Online Mirror Descent or Follow-The-Regularized-Leader and their variants. Particular attention is given to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms and learning in unbounded domains, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. Non-convex losses are dealt through convex surrogate losses and through randomization. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. These notes do not require prior knowledge of convex analysis and all the required mathematical tools are rigorously explained. Moreover, all the proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible.