The aim of this paper is to extend the framework of causal inference, in particular as it has been developed by Judea Pearl, in order to model actions and identify their intended effects, in the direction opened by Elisabeth Anscombe. We show how intentions can be inferred from a causal model and its implied correlations observable in data. The paper defines confounding effects as the reasons why teleological inference may fail and introduces interference as a way to control for them. The ''fundamental problem'' of teleological inference is presented, explaining why causal analysis needs an extension in order to take intentions into account.
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In this paper, we propose using constrained polynomial logical zonotopes for formal verification of logical systems. We perform reachability analysis to compute the set of states that could be reached. To do this, we utilize a recently introduced set representation called polynomial logical zonotopes for performing computationally efficient and exact reachability analysis on logical systems. Notably, polynomial logical zonotopes address the "curse of dimensionality" when analyzing the reachability of logical systems since the set representation can represent 2^n binary vectors using n generators. After finishing the reachability analysis, the formal verification involves verifying whether the intersection of the calculated reachable set and the unsafe set is empty or not. However, polynomial logical zonotopes are not closed under intersections. To address this, we formulate constrained polynomial logical zonotopes, which maintain the computational efficiency and exactness of polynomial logical zonotopes for reachability analysis while supporting exact intersections. Furthermore, we present an extensive empirical study illustrating and verifying the benefits of using constrained polynomial logical zonotopes for the formal verification of logical systems.
Aiming to overcome some of the limitations of worst-case analysis, the recently proposed framework of "algorithms with predictions" allows algorithms to be augmented with a (possibly erroneous) machine-learned prediction that they can use as a guide. In this framework, the goal is to obtain improved guarantees when the prediction is correct, which is called \emph{consistency}, while simultaneously guaranteeing some worst-case bounds even when the prediction is arbitrarily wrong, which is called \emph{robustness}. The vast majority of the work on this framework has focused on a refined analysis of online algorithms augmented with predictions regarding the future input. A subsequent line of work has also successfully adapted this framework to mechanism design, where the prediction is regarding the private information of strategic agents. In this paper, we initiate the study of online mechanism design with predictions, which combines the challenges of online algorithms with predictions and mechanism design with predictions. We consider the well-studied problem of designing a revenue-maximizing auction to sell a single item to strategic bidders who arrive and depart over time, each with an unknown, private, value for the item. We study the learning-augmented version of this problem where the auction designer is given a prediction regarding the maximum value over all agents. Our main result is a strategyproof mechanism whose revenue guarantees are $\alpha$-consistent with respect to the highest value and $(1-\alpha^2)/4$-robust with respect to the second-highest value, for $\alpha \in [0,1]$. We show that this tradeoff is optimal within a broad and natural family of auctions, meaning that any $\alpha$-consistent mechanism in that family has robustness at most $(1-\alpha^2)/4$. Finally, we extend our mechanism to also achieve expected revenues proportional to the prediction quality.
In this paper, error estimates of classification Random Forests are quantitatively assessed. Based on the initial theoretical framework built by Bates et al. (2023), the true error rate and expected error rate are theoretically and empirically investigated in the context of a variety of error estimation methods common to Random Forests. We show that in the classification case, Random Forests' estimates of prediction error is closer on average to the true error rate instead of the average prediction error. This is opposite the findings of Bates et al. (2023) which are given for logistic regression. We further show that our result holds across different error estimation strategies such as cross-validation, bagging, and data splitting.
This paper discusses the development of synthetic cohomology in Homotopy Type Theory (HoTT), as well as its computer formalisation. The objectives of this paper are (1) to generalise previous work on integral cohomology in HoTT by the current authors and Brunerie (2022) to cohomology with arbitrary coefficients and (2) to provide the mathematical details of, as well as extend, results underpinning the computer formalisation of cohomology rings by the current authors and Lamiaux (2023). With respect to objective (1), we provide new direct definitions of the cohomology group operations and of the cup product, which, just as in (Brunerie et al., 2022), enable significant simplifications of many earlier proofs in synthetic cohomology theory. In particular, the new definition of the cup product allows us to give the first complete formalisation of the axioms needed to turn the cohomology groups into a graded commutative ring. We also establish that this cohomology theory satisfies the HoTT formulation of the Eilenberg-Steenrod axioms for cohomology and study the classical Mayer-Vietoris and Gysin sequences. With respect to objective (2), we characterise the cohomology groups and rings of various spaces, including the spheres, torus, Klein bottle, real/complex projective planes, and infinite real projective space. All results have been formalised in Cubical Agda and we obtain multiple new numbers, similar to the famous `Brunerie number', which can be used as benchmarks for computational implementations of HoTT. Some of these numbers are infeasible to compute in Cubical Agda and hence provide new computational challenges and open problems which are much easier to define than the original Brunerie number.
We propose a novel differentially private algorithm for online federated learning that employs temporally correlated noise to improve the utility while ensuring the privacy of the continuously released models. To address challenges stemming from DP noise and local updates with streaming noniid data, we develop a perturbed iterate analysis to control the impact of the DP noise on the utility. Moreover, we demonstrate how the drift errors from local updates can be effectively managed under a quasi-strong convexity condition. Subject to an $(\epsilon, \delta)$-DP budget, we establish a dynamic regret bound over the entire time horizon that quantifies the impact of key parameters and the intensity of changes in dynamic environments. Numerical experiments validate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.
This paper deals with econometric models in which the dependent variable, some explanatory variables, or both are observed as censored interval data. This discretization often happens due to confidentiality of sensitive variables like income. Models using these variables cannot point identify regression parameters as the conditional moments are unknown, which led the literature to use interval estimates. Here, we propose a discretization method through which the regression parameters can be point identified while preserving data confidentiality. We demonstrate the asymptotic properties of the OLS estimator for the parameters in multivariate linear regressions for cross-sectional data. The theoretical findings are supported by Monte Carlo experiments and illustrated with an application to the Australian gender wage gap.
In this paper we define a class of polynomial functors suited for constructing coalgebras representing processes in which uncertainty plays an important role. In these polynomial functors we include upper and lower probability measures, finitely additive probability measures, plausibilty measures (and their duals, belief functions), and possibility measures. We give axioms and inference rules for the associated system of coalgebraic modal logic, and construct the canonical coalgebras to prove a completeness result.
Since the 1950s, machine translation (MT) has become one of the important tasks of AI and development, and has experienced several different periods and stages of development, including rule-based methods, statistical methods, and recently proposed neural network-based learning methods. Accompanying these staged leaps is the evaluation research and development of MT, especially the important role of evaluation methods in statistical translation and neural translation research. The evaluation task of MT is not only to evaluate the quality of machine translation, but also to give timely feedback to machine translation researchers on the problems existing in machine translation itself, how to improve and how to optimise. In some practical application fields, such as in the absence of reference translations, the quality estimation of machine translation plays an important role as an indicator to reveal the credibility of automatically translated target languages. This report mainly includes the following contents: a brief history of machine translation evaluation (MTE), the classification of research methods on MTE, and the the cutting-edge progress, including human evaluation, automatic evaluation, and evaluation of evaluation methods (meta-evaluation). Manual evaluation and automatic evaluation include reference-translation based and reference-translation independent participation; automatic evaluation methods include traditional n-gram string matching, models applying syntax and semantics, and deep learning models; evaluation of evaluation methods includes estimating the credibility of human evaluations, the reliability of the automatic evaluation, the reliability of the test set, etc. Advances in cutting-edge evaluation methods include task-based evaluation, using pre-trained language models based on big data, and lightweight optimisation models using distillation techniques.
In this paper, we propose Latent Relation Language Models (LRLMs), a class of language models that parameterizes the joint distribution over the words in a document and the entities that occur therein via knowledge graph relations. This model has a number of attractive properties: it not only improves language modeling performance, but is also able to annotate the posterior probability of entity spans for a given text through relations. Experiments demonstrate empirical improvements over both a word-based baseline language model and a previous approach that incorporates knowledge graph information. Qualitative analysis further demonstrates the proposed model's ability to learn to predict appropriate relations in context.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exists an underlying latent variable (paths connecting two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relations. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and coping with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on multiple datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
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