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Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of $+34.69\%$ versus $-35.17\%$) and in the best case ($+36.93\%$ versus $+5.56\%$). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

There is a mystery at the heart of operator learning: how can one recover a non-self-adjoint operator from data without probing the adjoint? Current practical approaches suggest that one can accurately recover an operator while only using data generated by the forward action of the operator without access to the adjoint. However, naively, it seems essential to sample the action of the adjoint. In this paper, we partially explain this mystery by proving that without querying the adjoint, one can approximate a family of non-self-adjoint infinite-dimensional compact operators via projection onto a Fourier basis. We then apply the result to recovering Green's functions of elliptic partial differential operators and derive an adjoint-free sample complexity bound. While existing theory justifies low sample complexity in operator learning, ours is the first adjoint-free analysis that attempts to close the gap between theory and practice.

A statistical emulator can be used as a surrogate of complex physics-based calculations to drastically reduce the computational cost. Its successful implementation hinges on an accurate representation of the nonlinear response surface with a high-dimensional input space. Conventional "space-filling" designs, including random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling, become inefficient as the dimensionality of the input variables increases, and the predictive accuracy of the emulator can degrade substantially for a test input distant from the training input set. To address this fundamental challenge, we develop a reliable emulator for predicting complex functionals by active learning with error control (ALEC). The algorithm is applicable to infinite-dimensional mapping with high-fidelity predictions and a controlled predictive error. The computational efficiency has been demonstrated by emulating the classical density functional theory (cDFT) calculations, a statistical-mechanical method widely used in modeling the equilibrium properties of complex molecular systems. We show that ALEC is much more accurate than conventional emulators based on the Gaussian processes with "space-filling" designs and alternative active learning methods. Besides, it is computationally more efficient than direct cDFT calculations. ALEC can be a reliable building block for emulating expensive functionals owing to its minimal computational cost, controllable predictive error, and fully automatic features.

Nearest-neighbor methods have become popular in statistics and play a key role in statistical learning. Important decisions in nearest-neighbor methods concern the variables to use (when many potential candidates exist) and how to measure the dissimilarity between units. The first decision depends on the scope of the application while second depends mainly on the type of variables. Unfortunately, relatively few options permit to handle mixed-type variables, a situation frequently encountered in practical applications. The most popular dissimilarity for mixed-type variables is derived as the complement to one of the Gower's similarity coefficient. It is appealing because ranges between 0 and 1, being an average of the scaled dissimilarities calculated variable by variable, handles missing values and allows for a user-defined weighting scheme when averaging dissimilarities. The discussion on the weighting schemes is sometimes misleading since it often ignores that the unweighted "standard" setting hides an unbalanced contribution of the single variables to the overall dissimilarity. We address this drawback following the recent idea of introducing a weighting scheme that minimizes the differences in the correlation between each contributing dissimilarity and the resulting weighted Gower's dissimilarity. In particular, this note proposes different approaches for measuring the correlation depending on the type of variables. The performances of the proposed approaches are evaluated in simulation studies related to classification and imputation of missing values.

We propose a method to explore the flavor structure of quarks and leptons with reinforcement learning. As a concrete model, we utilize a basic value-based algorithm for models with $U(1)$ flavor symmetry. By training neural networks on the $U(1)$ charges of quarks and leptons, the agent finds 21 models to be consistent with experimentally measured masses and mixing angles of quarks and leptons. In particular, an intrinsic value of normal ordering tends to be larger than that of inverted ordering, and the normal ordering is well fitted with the current experimental data in contrast to the inverted ordering. A specific value of effective mass for the neutrinoless double beta decay and a sizable leptonic CP violation induced by an angular component of flavon field are predicted by autonomous behavior of the agent. Our finding results indicate that the reinforcement learning can be a new method for understanding the flavor structure.

This study presents a Bayesian regression framework to model the relationship between scalar outcomes and brain functional connectivity represented as symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices. Unlike many proposals that simply vectorize the connectivity predictors thereby ignoring their matrix structures, our method respects the Riemannian geometry of SPD matrices by modelling them in a tangent space. We perform dimension reduction in the tangent space, relating the resulting low-dimensional representations with the responses. The dimension reduction matrix is learnt in a supervised manner with a sparsity-inducing prior imposed on a Stiefel manifold to prevent overfitting. Our method yields a parsimonious regression model that allows uncertainty quantification of the estimates and identification of key brain regions that predict the outcomes. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in simulation settings and through a case study to predict Picture Vocabulary scores using data from the Human Connectome Project.

Most state-of-the-art machine learning techniques revolve around the optimisation of loss functions. Defining appropriate loss functions is therefore critical to successfully solving problems in this field. We present a survey of the most commonly used loss functions for a wide range of different applications, divided into classification, regression, ranking, sample generation and energy based modelling. Overall, we introduce 33 different loss functions and we organise them into an intuitive taxonomy. Each loss function is given a theoretical backing and we describe where it is best used. This survey aims to provide a reference of the most essential loss functions for both beginner and advanced machine learning practitioners.

Graph-centric artificial intelligence (graph AI) has achieved remarkable success in modeling interacting systems prevalent in nature, from dynamical systems in biology to particle physics. The increasing heterogeneity of data calls for graph neural architectures that can combine multiple inductive biases. However, combining data from various sources is challenging because appropriate inductive bias may vary by data modality. Multimodal learning methods fuse multiple data modalities while leveraging cross-modal dependencies to address this challenge. Here, we survey 140 studies in graph-centric AI and realize that diverse data types are increasingly brought together using graphs and fed into sophisticated multimodal models. These models stratify into image-, language-, and knowledge-grounded multimodal learning. We put forward an algorithmic blueprint for multimodal graph learning based on this categorization. The blueprint serves as a way to group state-of-the-art architectures that treat multimodal data by choosing appropriately four different components. This effort can pave the way for standardizing the design of sophisticated multimodal architectures for highly complex real-world problems.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

We study few-shot acoustic event detection (AED) in this paper. Few-shot learning enables detection of new events with very limited labeled data. Compared to other research areas like computer vision, few-shot learning for audio recognition has been under-studied. We formulate few-shot AED problem and explore different ways of utilizing traditional supervised methods for this setting as well as a variety of meta-learning approaches, which are conventionally used to solve few-shot classification problem. Compared to supervised baselines, meta-learning models achieve superior performance, thus showing its effectiveness on generalization to new audio events. Our analysis including impact of initialization and domain discrepancy further validate the advantage of meta-learning approaches in few-shot AED.