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In the linear mixed model (LMM), the simultaneous assessment and comparison of dispersion relevance of explanatory variables associated with fixed and random effects remains an important open practical problem. Based on the restricted maximum likelihood equations in the variance components form of the LMM, we prove a proper decomposition of the sum of squares of the dependent variable into unbiased estimators of interpretable estimands of explained variation. This result leads to a natural extension of the well-known adjusted coefficient of determination to the LMM. Further, we allocate the novel unbiased estimators of explained variation to specific contributions of covariates associated with fixed and random effects within a single model fit. These parameter-wise explained variations constitute easily interpretable quantities, assessing dispersion relevance of covariates associated with both fixed and random effects on a common scale, thus allowing for a covariate ranking. For illustration, we contrast the variation explained by subjects and time in the longitudinal sleep deprivation study. By comparing the dispersion relevance of population characteristics and spatial levels, we determine literacy as a major driver of income inequality in Burkina Faso. Finally, we develop a novel relevance plot to visualize the dispersion relevance of high-dimensional genomic markers in Arabidopsis thaliana.

This paper explores a novel mathematical approach to extract archaeological insights from ensembles of similar artifact shapes. We show that by considering all the shape information in a find collection, it is possible to identify shape patterns that would be difficult to discern by considering the artifacts individually or by classifying shapes into predefined archaeological types and analyzing the associated distinguishing characteristics. Recently, series of high-resolution digital representations of artifacts have become available, and we explore their potential on a set of 3D models of ancient Greek and Roman sundials, with the aim of providing alternatives to the traditional archaeological method of ``trend extraction by ordination'' (typology). In the proposed approach, each 3D shape is represented as a point in a shape space -- a high-dimensional, curved, non-Euclidean space. By performing regression in shape space, we find that for Roman sundials, the bend of the sundials' shadow-receiving surface changes with the location's latitude. This suggests that, apart from the inscribed hour lines, also a sundial's shape was adjusted to the place of installation. As an example of more advanced inference, we use the identified trend to infer the latitude at which a sundial, whose installation location is unknown, was placed. We also derive a novel method for differentiated morphological trend assertion, building upon and extending the theory of geometric statistics and shape analysis. Specifically, we present a regression-based method for statistical normalization of shapes that serves as a means of disentangling parameter-dependent effects (trends) and unexplained variability.

The effectiveness of Constrained Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (CMOEAs) depends on their ability to reach the different feasible regions during evolution, by exploiting the information present in infeasible solutions, in addition to optimizing the several conflicting objectives. Over the years, researchers have proposed several CMOEAs to handle CMOPs. However, among the different CMOEAs proposed most of them are either decomposition-based or Pareto-based, with little focus on indicator-based CMOEAs. In literature, most indicator-based CMOEAs employ - a) traditional indicators used to solve unconstrained multi-objective problems to find the indicator values using objectives values and combine them with overall constraint violation to solve Constrained Multi-objective Optimization Problem (CMOP) as a single objective constraint problem, or b) consider each constraint or the overall constraint violation as objective(s) in addition to the actual objectives. In this paper, we propose an effective single-population indicator-based CMOEA referred to as IcSDE+ that can explore the different feasible regions in the search space. IcSDE+ is an (I)ndicator, that is an efficient fusion of constraint violation (c), shift-based density estimation (SDE) and sum of objectives (+). The performance of CMOEA with IcSDE+ is favorably compared against 9 state-of-the-art CMOEAs on 6 different benchmark suites with diverse characteristics

In a sequential regression setting, a decision-maker may be primarily concerned with whether the future observation will increase or decrease compared to the current one, rather than the actual value of the future observation. In this context, we introduce the notion of parity calibration, which captures the goal of calibrated forecasting for the increase-decrease (or "parity") event in a timeseries. Parity probabilities can be extracted from a forecasted distribution for the output, but we show that such a strategy leads to theoretical unpredictability and poor practical performance. We then observe that although the original task was regression, parity calibration can be expressed as binary calibration. Drawing on this connection, we use an online binary calibration method to achieve parity calibration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real-world case studies in epidemiology, weather forecasting, and model-based control in nuclear fusion.

Deep generative models have been recently extended to synthesizing 3D digital humans. However, previous approaches treat clothed humans as a single chunk of geometry without considering the compositionality of clothing and accessories. As a result, individual items cannot be naturally composed into novel identities, leading to limited expressiveness and controllability of generative 3D avatars. While several methods attempt to address this by leveraging synthetic data, the interaction between humans and objects is not authentic due to the domain gap, and manual asset creation is difficult to scale for a wide variety of objects. In this work, we present a novel framework for learning a compositional generative model of humans and objects (backpacks, coats, scarves, and more) from real-world 3D scans. Our compositional model is interaction-aware, meaning the spatial relationship between humans and objects, and the mutual shape change by physical contact is fully incorporated. The key challenge is that, since humans and objects are in contact, their 3D scans are merged into a single piece. To decompose them without manual annotations, we propose to leverage two sets of 3D scans of a single person with and without objects. Our approach learns to decompose objects and naturally compose them back into a generative human model in an unsupervised manner. Despite our simple setup requiring only the capture of a single subject with objects, our experiments demonstrate the strong generalization of our model by enabling the natural composition of objects to diverse identities in various poses and the composition of multiple objects, which is unseen in training data. //taeksuu.github.io/ncho/

We present new insights and a novel paradigm (StEik) for learning implicit neural representations (INR) of shapes. In particular, we shed light on the popular eikonal loss used for imposing a signed distance function constraint in INR. We show analytically that as the representation power of the network increases, the optimization approaches a partial differential equation (PDE) in the continuum limit that is unstable. We show that this instability can manifest in existing network optimization, leading to irregularities in the reconstructed surface and/or convergence to sub-optimal local minima, and thus fails to capture fine geometric and topological structure. We show analytically how other terms added to the loss, currently used in the literature for other purposes, can actually eliminate these instabilities. However, such terms can over-regularize the surface, preventing the representation of fine shape detail. Based on a similar PDE theory for the continuum limit, we introduce a new regularization term that still counteracts the eikonal instability but without over-regularizing. Furthermore, since stability is now guaranteed in the continuum limit, this stabilization also allows for considering new network structures that are able to represent finer shape detail. We introduce such a structure based on quadratic layers. Experiments on multiple benchmark data sets show that our new regularization and network are able to capture more precise shape details and more accurate topology than existing state-of-the-art.

We introduce an approach which allows inferring causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Our method builds on the ideas of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, but overcomes most of their limitations. Specifically, our approach tests whether the predictability of a putative driven system Y can be improved by incorporating information from a potential driver system X, without making assumptions on the underlying dynamics and without the need to compute probability densities of the dynamic variables. Causality is assessed by a rigorous variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a recently developed statistical test capable of inferring the relative information content of different distance measures. This framework makes causality detection possible even for high-dimensional systems where only few of the variables are known or measured. Benchmark tests on coupled dynamical systems demonstrate that our approach outperforms other model-free causality detection methods, successfully handling both unidirectional and bidirectional couplings, and it is capable of detecting the arrow of time when present. We also show that the method can be used to robustly detect causality in electroencephalography data in humans.

Recently, an intriguing class of non-convex optimization problems has emerged in the context of learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). These problems involve minimizing a given loss or score function, subject to a non-convex continuous constraint that penalizes the presence of cycles in a graph. In this work, we delve into the optimization challenges associated with this class of non-convex programs. To address these challenges, we propose a bi-level algorithm that leverages the non-convex constraint in a novel way. The outer level of the algorithm optimizes over topological orders by iteratively swapping pairs of nodes within the topological order of a DAG. A key innovation of our approach is the development of an effective method for generating a set of candidate swapping pairs for each iteration. At the inner level, given a topological order, we utilize off-the-shelf solvers that can handle linear constraints. The key advantage of our proposed algorithm is that it is guaranteed to find a local minimum or a KKT point under weaker conditions compared to previous work and finds solutions with lower scores. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of achieving a better score. Additionally, our method can also be used as a post-processing algorithm to significantly improve the score of other algorithms. Code implementing the proposed method is available at //github.com/duntrain/topo.

Adversarial attacks represent a security threat to machine learning based automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. To prevent such attacks we propose an adversarial example detection strategy applicable to any ASR system that predicts a probability distribution over output tokens in each time step. We measure a set of characteristics of this distribution: the median, maximum, and minimum over the output probabilities, the entropy, and the Jensen-Shannon divergence of the distributions of subsequent time steps. Then, we fit a Gaussian distribution to the characteristics observed for benign data. By computing the likelihood of incoming new audio we can distinguish malicious inputs from samples from clean data with an area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUROC) higher than 0.99, which drops to 0.98 for less-quality audio. To assess the robustness of our method we build adaptive attacks. This reduces the AUROC to 0.96 but results in more noisy adversarial clips.

Despite the advancement of machine learning techniques in recent years, state-of-the-art systems lack robustness to "real world" events, where the input distributions and tasks encountered by the deployed systems will not be limited to the original training context, and systems will instead need to adapt to novel distributions and tasks while deployed. This critical gap may be addressed through the development of "Lifelong Learning" systems that are capable of 1) Continuous Learning, 2) Transfer and Adaptation, and 3) Scalability. Unfortunately, efforts to improve these capabilities are typically treated as distinct areas of research that are assessed independently, without regard to the impact of each separate capability on other aspects of the system. We instead propose a holistic approach, using a suite of metrics and an evaluation framework to assess Lifelong Learning in a principled way that is agnostic to specific domains or system techniques. Through five case studies, we show that this suite of metrics can inform the development of varied and complex Lifelong Learning systems. We highlight how the proposed suite of metrics quantifies performance trade-offs present during Lifelong Learning system development - both the widely discussed Stability-Plasticity dilemma and the newly proposed relationship between Sample Efficient and Robust Learning. Further, we make recommendations for the formulation and use of metrics to guide the continuing development of Lifelong Learning systems and assess their progress in the future.