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An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human or model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is combining their individual predictions in a manner that leverages their relative strengths. In this work, we develop a set of algorithms that combine the probabilistic output of a model with the class-level output of a human. We show theoretically that the accuracy of our combination model is driven not only by the individual human and model accuracies, but also by the model's confidence. Empirical results on image classification with CIFAR-10 and a subset of ImageNet demonstrate that such human-model combinations consistently have higher accuracies than the model or human alone, and that the parameters of the combination method can be estimated effectively with as few as ten labeled datapoints.

This paper proposes an algorithm to estimate the parameters of a censored linear regression model when the regression errors are autocorrelated, and the innovations follow a Student-$t$ distribution. The Student-$t$ distribution is widely used in statistical modeling of datasets involving errors with outliers and a more substantial possibility of extreme values. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are obtained throughout the SAEM algorithm [1]. This algorithm is a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm, and it is a tool for models in which the E-step does not have an analytic form. There are also provided expressions to compute the observed Fisher information matrix [2]. The proposed model is illustrated by the analysis of a real dataset that has left-censored and missing observations. We also conducted two simulations studies to examine the asymptotic properties of the estimates and the robustness of the model.

As data-driven methods are deployed in real-world settings, the processes that generate the observed data will often react to the decisions of the learner. For example, a data source may have some incentive for the algorithm to provide a particular label (e.g. approve a bank loan), and manipulate their features accordingly. Work in strategic classification and decision-dependent distributions seeks to characterize the closed-loop behavior of deploying learning algorithms by explicitly considering the effect of the classifier on the underlying data distribution. More recently, works in performative prediction seek to classify the closed-loop behavior by considering general properties of the mapping from classifier to data distribution, rather than an explicit form. Building on this notion, we analyze repeated risk minimization as the perturbed trajectories of the gradient flows of performative risk minimization. We consider the case where there may be multiple local minimizers of performative risk, motivated by situations where the initial conditions may have significant impact on the long-term behavior of the system. We provide sufficient conditions to characterize the region of attraction for the various equilibria in this settings. Additionally, we introduce the notion of performative alignment, which provides a geometric condition on the convergence of repeated risk minimization to performative risk minimizers.

Linear thresholding models postulate that the conditional distribution of a response variable in terms of covariates differs on the two sides of a (typically unknown) hyperplane in the covariate space. A key goal in such models is to learn about this separating hyperplane. Exact likelihood or least squares methods to estimate the thresholding parameter involve an indicator function which make them difficult to optimize and are, therefore, often tackled by using a surrogate loss that uses a smooth approximation to the indicator. In this paper, we demonstrate that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal with a near optimal rate of convergence: $n^{-1}$ up to a log factor, in both classification and regression thresholding models. This is substantially faster than the currently established convergence rates of smoothed estimators for similar models in the statistics and econometrics literatures. We also present a real-data application of our approach to an environmental data set where $CO_2$ emission is explained in terms of a separating hyperplane defined through per-capita GDP and urban agglomeration.

Two novel numerical estimators are proposed for solving forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) appearing in the Feynman-Kac representation of the value function in stochastic optimal control problems. In contrast to the current numerical approaches which are based on the discretization of the continuous-time FBSDE, we propose a converse approach, namely, we obtain a discrete-time approximation of the on-policy value function, and then we derive a discrete-time estimator that resembles the continuous-time counterpart. The proposed approach allows for the construction of higher accuracy estimators along with error analysis. The approach is applied to the policy improvement step in reinforcement learning. Numerical results and error analysis are demonstrated using (i) a scalar nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem and (ii) a four-dimensional linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problem. The proposed estimators show significant improvement in terms of accuracy in both cases over Euler-Maruyama-based estimators used in competing approaches. In the case of LQR problems, we demonstrate that our estimators result in near machine-precision level accuracy, in contrast to previously proposed methods that can potentially diverge on the same problems.

In this paper, we establish the almost sure convergence of two-timescale stochastic gradient descent algorithms in continuous time under general noise and stability conditions, extending well known results in discrete time. We analyse algorithms with additive noise and those with non-additive noise. In the non-additive case, our analysis is carried out under the assumption that the noise is a continuous-time Markov process, controlled by the algorithm states. The algorithms we consider can be applied to a broad class of bilevel optimisation problems. We study one such problem in detail, namely, the problem of joint online parameter estimation and optimal sensor placement for a partially observed diffusion process. We demonstrate how this can be formulated as a bilevel optimisation problem, and propose a solution in the form of a continuous-time, two-timescale, stochastic gradient descent algorithm. Furthermore, under suitable conditions on the latent signal, the filter, and the filter derivatives, we establish almost sure convergence of the online parameter estimates and optimal sensor placements to the stationary points of the asymptotic log-likelihood and asymptotic filter covariance, respectively. We also provide numerical examples, illustrating the application of the proposed methodology to a partially observed Bene\v{s} equation, and a partially observed stochastic advection-diffusion equation.

Stochastic Gradient Algorithms (SGAs) are ubiquitous in computational statistics, machine learning and optimisation. Recent years have brought an influx of interest in SGAs, and the non-asymptotic analysis of their bias is by now well-developed. However, relatively little is known about the optimal choice of the random approximation (e.g mini-batching) of the gradient in SGAs as this relies on the analysis of the variance and is problem specific. While there have been numerous attempts to reduce the variance of SGAs, these typically exploit a particular structure of the sampled distribution by requiring a priori knowledge of its density's mode. It is thus unclear how to adapt such algorithms to non-log-concave settings. In this paper, we construct a Multi-index Antithetic Stochastic Gradient Algorithm (MASGA) whose implementation is independent of the structure of the target measure and which achieves performance on par with Monte Carlo estimators that have access to unbiased samples from the distribution of interest. In other words, MASGA is an optimal estimator from the mean square error-computational cost perspective within the class of Monte Carlo estimators. We prove this fact rigorously for log-concave settings and verify it numerically for some examples where the log-concavity assumption is not satisfied.

We present a new finite-sample analysis of M-estimators of locations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ using the tool of the influence function. In particular, we show that the deviations of an M-estimator can be controlled thanks to its influence function (or its score function) and then, we use concentration inequality on M-estimators to investigate the robust estimation of the mean in high dimension in a corrupted setting (adversarial corruption setting) for bounded and unbounded score functions. For a sample of size $n$ and covariance matrix $\Sigma$, we attain the minimax speed $\sqrt{Tr(\Sigma)/n}+\sqrt{\|\Sigma\|_{op}\log(1/\delta)/n}$ with probability larger than $1-\delta$ in a heavy-tailed setting. One of the major advantages of our approach compared to others recently proposed is that our estimator is tractable and fast to compute even in very high dimension with a complexity of $O(nd\log(Tr(\Sigma)))$ where $n$ is the sample size and $\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix of the inliers. In practice, the code that we make available for this article proves to be very fast.

Dynamic statistical process monitoring methods have been widely studied and applied in modern industrial processes. These methods aim to extract the most predictable temporal information and develop the corresponding dynamic monitoring schemes. However, measurement noise is widespread in real-world industrial processes, and ignoring its effect will lead to sub-optimal modeling and monitoring performance. In this article, a probabilistic predictable feature analysis (PPFA) is proposed for high dimensional time series modeling, and a multi-step dynamic predictive monitoring scheme is developed. The model parameters are estimated with an efficient expectation-maximum algorithm, where the genetic algorithm and Kalman filter are designed and incorporated. Further, a novel dynamic statistical monitoring index, Dynamic Index, is proposed as an important supplement of $\text{T}^2$ and $\text{SPE}$ to detect dynamic anomalies. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated via its application on the three-phase flow facility and a medium speed coal mill.

Detection and recognition of text in natural images are two main problems in the field of computer vision that have a wide variety of applications in analysis of sports videos, autonomous driving, industrial automation, to name a few. They face common challenging problems that are factors in how text is represented and affected by several environmental conditions. The current state-of-the-art scene text detection and/or recognition methods have exploited the witnessed advancement in deep learning architectures and reported a superior accuracy on benchmark datasets when tackling multi-resolution and multi-oriented text. However, there are still several remaining challenges affecting text in the wild images that cause existing methods to underperform due to there models are not able to generalize to unseen data and the insufficient labeled data. Thus, unlike previous surveys in this field, the objectives of this survey are as follows: first, offering the reader not only a review on the recent advancement in scene text detection and recognition, but also presenting the results of conducting extensive experiments using a unified evaluation framework that assesses pre-trained models of the selected methods on challenging cases, and applies the same evaluation criteria on these techniques. Second, identifying several existing challenges for detecting or recognizing text in the wild images, namely, in-plane-rotation, multi-oriented and multi-resolution text, perspective distortion, illumination reflection, partial occlusion, complex fonts, and special characters. Finally, the paper also presents insight into the potential research directions in this field to address some of the mentioned challenges that are still encountering scene text detection and recognition techniques.