Model-free learning for multi-agent stochastic games is an active area of research. Existing reinforcement learning algorithms, however, are often restricted to zero-sum games, and are applicable only in small state-action spaces or other simplified settings. Here, we develop a new data efficient Deep-Q-learning methodology for model-free learning of Nash equilibria for general-sum stochastic games. The algorithm uses a local linear-quadratic expansion of the stochastic game, which leads to analytically solvable optimal actions. The expansion is parametrized by deep neural networks to give it sufficient flexibility to learn the environment without the need to experience all state-action pairs. We study symmetry properties of the algorithm stemming from label-invariant stochastic games and as a proof of concept, apply our algorithm to learning optimal trading strategies in competitive electronic markets.
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Many machine learning problems encode their data as a matrix with a possibly very large number of rows and columns. In several applications like neuroscience, image compression or deep reinforcement learning, the principal subspace of such a matrix provides a useful, low-dimensional representation of individual data. Here, we are interested in determining the $d$-dimensional principal subspace of a given matrix from sample entries, i.e. from small random submatrices. Although a number of sample-based methods exist for this problem (e.g. Oja's rule \citep{oja1982simplified}), these assume access to full columns of the matrix or particular matrix structure such as symmetry and cannot be combined as-is with neural networks \citep{baldi1989neural}. In this paper, we derive an algorithm that learns a principal subspace from sample entries, can be applied when the approximate subspace is represented by a neural network, and hence can be scaled to datasets with an effectively infinite number of rows and columns. Our method consists in defining a loss function whose minimizer is the desired principal subspace, and constructing a gradient estimate of this loss whose bias can be controlled. We complement our theoretical analysis with a series of experiments on synthetic matrices, the MNIST dataset \citep{lecun2010mnist} and the reinforcement learning domain PuddleWorld \citep{sutton1995generalization} demonstrating the usefulness of our approach.
The ability to quickly and accurately identify covariate shift at test time is a critical and often overlooked component of safe machine learning systems deployed in high-risk domains. While methods exist for detecting when predictions should not be made on out-of-distribution test examples, identifying distributional level differences between training and test time can help determine when a model should be removed from the deployment setting and retrained. In this work, we define harmful covariate shift (HCS) as a change in distribution that may weaken the generalization of a predictive model. To detect HCS, we use the discordance between an ensemble of classifiers trained to agree on training data and disagree on test data. We derive a loss function for training this ensemble and show that the disagreement rate and entropy represent powerful discriminative statistics for HCS. Empirically, we demonstrate the ability of our method to detect harmful covariate shift with statistical certainty on a variety of high-dimensional datasets. Across numerous domains and modalities, we show state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods, particularly when the number of observed test samples is small.
Covariate distribution shifts and adversarial perturbations present robustness challenges to the conventional statistical learning framework: seemingly small unconceivable shifts in the test covariate distribution can significantly affect the performance of the statistical model learned based on the training distribution. The model performance typically deteriorates when extrapolation happens: namely, covariates shift to a region where the training distribution is scarce, and naturally, the learned model has little information. For robustness and regularization considerations, adversarial perturbation techniques are proposed as a remedy; however, more needs to be studied about what extrapolation region adversarial covariate shift will focus on, given a learned model. This paper precisely characterizes the extrapolation region, examining both regression and classification in an infinite-dimensional setting. We study the implications of adversarial covariate shifts to subsequent learning of the equilibrium -- the Bayes optimal model -- in a sequential game framework. We exploit the dynamics of the adversarial learning game and reveal the curious effects of the covariate shift to equilibrium learning and experimental design. In particular, we establish two directional convergence results that exhibit distinctive phenomena: (1) a blessing in regression, the adversarial covariate shifts in an exponential rate to an optimal experimental design for rapid subsequent learning, (2) a curse in classification, the adversarial covariate shifts in a subquadratic rate fast to the hardest experimental design trapping subsequent learning.
Combinatorial optimization (CO) layers in machine learning (ML) pipelines are a powerful tool to tackle data-driven decision tasks, but they come with two main challenges. First, the solution of a CO problem often behaves as a piecewise constant function of its objective parameters. Given that ML pipelines are typically trained using stochastic gradient descent, the absence of slope information is very detrimental. Second, standard ML losses do not work well in combinatorial settings. A growing body of research addresses these challenges through diverse methods. Unfortunately, the lack of well-maintained implementations slows down the adoption of CO layers. In this paper, building upon previous works, we introduce a probabilistic perspective on CO layers, which lends itself naturally to approximate differentiation and the construction of structured losses. We recover many approaches from the literature as special cases, and we also derive new ones. Based on this unifying perspective, we present InferOpt.jl, an open-source Julia package that 1) allows turning any CO oracle with a linear objective into a differentiable layer, and 2) defines adequate losses to train pipelines containing such layers. Our library works with arbitrary optimization algorithms, and it is fully compatible with Julia's ML ecosystem. We demonstrate its abilities using a pathfinding problem on video game maps as guiding example, as well as three other applications from operations research.
Legged systems have many advantages when compared to their wheeled counterparts. For example, they can more easily navigate extreme, uneven terrain. However, there are disadvantages as well, particularly the difficulty seen in modeling the nonlinearities of the system. Research has shown that using flexible components within legged locomotive systems improves performance measures such as efficiency and running velocity. Because of the difficulties encountered in modeling flexible systems, control methods such as reinforcement learning can be used to define control strategies. Furthermore, reinforcement learning can be tasked with learning mechanical parameters of a system to match a control input. It is shown in this work that when deploying reinforcement learning to find design parameters for a pogo-stick jumping system, the designs the agents learn are optimal within the design space provided to the agents.
The problem of covariate-shift generalization has attracted intensive research attention. Previous stable learning algorithms employ sample reweighting schemes to decorrelate the covariates when there is no explicit domain information about training data. However, with finite samples, it is difficult to achieve the desirable weights that ensure perfect independence to get rid of the unstable variables. Besides, decorrelating within stable variables may bring about high variance of learned models because of the over-reduced effective sample size. A tremendous sample size is required for these algorithms to work. In this paper, with theoretical justification, we propose SVI (Sparse Variable Independence) for the covariate-shift generalization problem. We introduce sparsity constraint to compensate for the imperfectness of sample reweighting under the finite-sample setting in previous methods. Furthermore, we organically combine independence-based sample reweighting and sparsity-based variable selection in an iterative way to avoid decorrelating within stable variables, increasing the effective sample size to alleviate variance inflation. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the improvement of covariate-shift generalization performance brought by SVI.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.
The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.
Exploration-exploitation is a powerful and practical tool in multi-agent learning (MAL), however, its effects are far from understood. To make progress in this direction, we study a smooth analogue of Q-learning. We start by showing that our learning model has strong theoretical justification as an optimal model for studying exploration-exploitation. Specifically, we prove that smooth Q-learning has bounded regret in arbitrary games for a cost model that explicitly captures the balance between game and exploration costs and that it always converges to the set of quantal-response equilibria (QRE), the standard solution concept for games under bounded rationality, in weighted potential games with heterogeneous learning agents. In our main task, we then turn to measure the effect of exploration in collective system performance. We characterize the geometry of the QRE surface in low-dimensional MAL systems and link our findings with catastrophe (bifurcation) theory. In particular, as the exploration hyperparameter evolves over-time, the system undergoes phase transitions where the number and stability of equilibria can change radically given an infinitesimal change to the exploration parameter. Based on this, we provide a formal theoretical treatment of how tuning the exploration parameter can provably lead to equilibrium selection with both positive as well as negative (and potentially unbounded) effects to system performance.
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