We study a multi-server queueing system with a periodic arrival rate and customers whose joining decision is based on their patience and a delay proxy. Specifically, each customer has a patience level sampled from a common distribution. Upon arrival, they receive an estimate of their delay before joining service and then join the system only if this delay is not more than their patience, otherwise they balk. The main objective is to estimate the parameters pertaining to the arrival rate and patience distribution. Here the complication factor is that this inference should be performed based on the observed process only, i.e., balking customers remain unobserved. We set up a likelihood function of the state dependent effective arrival process (i.e., corresponding to the customers who join), establish strong consistency of the MLE, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Due to the intrinsic non-stationarity of the Poisson arrival process, the proof techniques used in previous work become inapplicable. The novelty of the proving mechanism in this paper lies in the procedure of constructing i.i.d. objects from dependent samples by decomposing the sample path into i.i.d. regeneration cycles. The feasibility of the MLE-approach is discussed via a sequence of numerical experiments, for multiple choices of functions which provide delay estimates. In particular, it is observed that the arrival rate is best estimated at high service capacities, and the patience distribution is best estimated at lower service capacities.
Successfully addressing a wide variety of tasks is a core ability of autonomous agents, requiring flexibly adapting the underlying decision-making strategies and, as we argue in this work, also adapting the perception modules. An analogical argument would be the human visual system, which uses top-down signals to focus attention determined by the current task. Similarly, we adapt pre-trained large vision models conditioned on specific downstream tasks in the context of multi-task policy learning. We introduce task-conditioned adapters that do not require finetuning any pre-trained weights, combined with a single policy trained with behavior cloning and capable of addressing multiple tasks. We condition the visual adapters on task embeddings, which can be selected at inference if the task is known, or alternatively inferred from a set of example demonstrations. To this end, we propose a new optimization-based estimator. We evaluate the method on a wide variety of tasks from the CortexBench benchmark and show that, compared to existing work, it can be addressed with a single policy. In particular, we demonstrate that adapting visual features is a key design choice and that the method generalizes to unseen tasks given a few demonstrations.
We study the properties of a family of distances between functions of a single variable. These distances are examples of integral probability metrics, and have been used previously for comparing probability measures on the line; special cases include the Earth Mover's Distance and the Kolmogorov Metric. We examine their properties for general signals, proving that they are robust to a broad class of deformations. We also establish corresponding robustness results for the induced sliced distances between multivariate functions. Finally, we establish error bounds for approximating the univariate metrics from finite samples, and prove that these approximations are robust to additive Gaussian noise. The results are illustrated in numerical experiments, which include comparisons with Wasserstein distances.
In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates. Previous research has not studied methods that address this issue from a causal viewpoint while allowing for complex nonlinear dependencies and without assuming access to side information. For such a scenario, this study proposes a model that assumes a continuous treatment variable that is inaccurately measured. Building on existing results for measurement error models, we prove that our model's causal effect estimates are identifiable, even without knowledge of the measurement error variance or other side information. Our method relies on a deep latent variable model in which Gaussian conditionals are parameterized by neural networks, and we develop an amortized importance-weighted variational objective for training the model. Empirical results demonstrate the method's good performance with unknown measurement error. More broadly, our work extends the range of applications in which reliable causal inference can be conducted.
Challenges to reproducibility and replicability have gained widespread attention, driven by large replication projects with lukewarm success rates. A nascent work has emerged developing algorithms to estimate the replicability of published findings. The current study explores ways in which AI-enabled signals of confidence in research might be integrated into the literature search. We interview 17 PhD researchers about their current processes for literature search and ask them to provide feedback on a replicability estimation tool. Our findings suggest that participants tend to confuse replicability with generalizability and related concepts. Information about replicability can support researchers throughout the research design processes. However, the use of AI estimation is debatable due to the lack of explainability and transparency. The ethical implications of AI-enabled confidence assessment must be further studied before such tools could be widely accepted. We discuss implications for the design of technological tools to support scholarly activities and advance replicability.
We propose an abstract conceptual framework for analysing complex security systems using a new notion of modes and mode transitions. A mode is an independent component of a system with its own objectives, monitoring data, algorithms, and scope and limits. The behaviour of a mode, including its transitions to other modes, is determined by interpretations of the mode's monitoring data in the light of its objectives and capabilities -- these interpretations we call beliefs. We formalise the conceptual framework mathematically and, by quantifying and visualising beliefs in higher-dimensional geometric spaces, we argue our models may help both design, analyse and explain systems. The mathematical models are based on simplicial complexes.
This paper focuses on the distributed online convex optimization problem with time-varying inequality constraints over a network of agents, where each agent collaborates with its neighboring agents to minimize the cumulative network-wide loss over time. To reduce communication overhead between the agents, we propose a distributed event-triggered online primal-dual algorithm over a time-varying directed graph. With several classes of appropriately chose decreasing parameter sequences and non-increasing event-triggered threshold sequences, we establish dynamic network regret and network cumulative constraint violation bounds. Finally, a numerical simulation example is provided to verify the theoretical results.
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, crucial for reliable pattern classification, discerns whether a sample originates outside the training distribution. This paper concentrates on the high-dimensional features output by the final convolutional layer, which contain rich image features. Our key idea is to project these high-dimensional features into two specific feature subspaces, leveraging the dimensionality reduction capacity of the network's linear layers, trained with Predefined Evenly-Distribution Class Centroids (PEDCC)-Loss. This involves calculating the cosines of three projection angles and the norm values of features, thereby identifying distinctive information for in-distribution (ID) and OOD data, which assists in OOD detection. Building upon this, we have modified the batch normalization (BN) and ReLU layer preceding the fully connected layer, diminishing their impact on the output feature distributions and thereby widening the distribution gap between ID and OOD data features. Our method requires only the training of the classification network model, eschewing any need for input pre-processing or specific OOD data pre-tuning. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrates that our approach delivers state-of-the-art performance. Our code is available at //github.com/Hewell0/ProjOOD.
A/B testing methodology is generally performed by private companies to increase user engagement and satisfaction about online features. Their usage is far from being transparent and may undermine user autonomy (e.g. polarizing individual opinions, mis- and dis- information spreading). For our analysis we leverage a crucial case study dataset (i.e. Upworthy) where news headlines were allocated to users and reshuffled for optimizing clicks. Our centre of focus is to determine how and under which conditions A/B testing affects the distribution of content on the collective level, specifically on different social network structures. In order to achieve that, we set up an agent-based model reproducing social interaction and an individual decision-making model. Our preliminary results indicate that A/B testing has a substantial influence on the qualitative dynamics of information dissemination on a social network. Moreover, our modeling framework promisingly embeds conjecturing policy (e.g. nudging, boosting) interventions.
This paper is concerned with the problem of policy evaluation with linear function approximation in discounted infinite horizon Markov decision processes. We investigate the sample complexities required to guarantee a predefined estimation error of the best linear coefficients for two widely-used policy evaluation algorithms: the temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm and the two-timescale linear TD with gradient correction (TDC) algorithm. In both the on-policy setting, where observations are generated from the target policy, and the off-policy setting, where samples are drawn from a behavior policy potentially different from the target policy, we establish the first sample complexity bound with high-probability convergence guarantee that attains the optimal dependence on the tolerance level. We also exhihit an explicit dependence on problem-related quantities, and show in the on-policy setting that our upper bound matches the minimax lower bound on crucial problem parameters, including the choice of the feature maps and the problem dimension.
A fundamental problem associated with the task of network reconstruction from dynamical or behavioral data consists in determining the most appropriate model complexity in a manner that prevents overfitting, and produces an inferred network with a statistically justifiable number of edges. The status quo in this context is based on $L_{1}$ regularization combined with cross-validation. As we demonstrate, besides its high computational cost, this commonplace approach unnecessarily ties the promotion of sparsity with weight "shrinkage". This combination forces a trade-off between the bias introduced by shrinkage and the network sparsity, which often results in substantial overfitting even after cross-validation. In this work, we propose an alternative nonparametric regularization scheme based on hierarchical Bayesian inference and weight quantization, which does not rely on weight shrinkage to promote sparsity. Our approach follows the minimum description length (MDL) principle, and uncovers the weight distribution that allows for the most compression of the data, thus avoiding overfitting without requiring cross-validation. The latter property renders our approach substantially faster to employ, as it requires a single fit to the complete data. As a result, we have a principled and efficient inference scheme that can be used with a large variety of generative models, without requiring the number of edges to be known in advance. We also demonstrate that our scheme yields systematically increased accuracy in the reconstruction of both artificial and empirical networks. We highlight the use of our method with the reconstruction of interaction networks between microbial communities from large-scale abundance samples involving in the order of $10^{4}$ to $10^{5}$ species, and demonstrate how the inferred model can be used to predict the outcome of interventions in the system.