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We extend and combine several tools of the literature to design fast, adaptive, anytime and scale-free online learning algorithms. Scale-free regret bounds must scale linearly with the maximum loss, both toward large losses and toward very small losses. Adaptive regret bounds demonstrate that an algorithm can take advantage of easy data and potentially have constant regret. We seek to develop fast algorithms that depend on as few parameters as possible, in particular they should be anytime and thus not depend on the time horizon. Our first and main tool, isotuning, is a generalization of the idea of balancing the trade-off of the regret. We develop a set of tools to design and analyze such learning rates easily and show that they adapts automatically to the rate of the regret (whether constant, $O(\log T)$, $O(\sqrt{T})$, etc.) within a factor 2 of the optimal learning rate in hindsight for the same observed quantities. The second tool is an online correction, which allows us to obtain centered bounds for many algorithms, to prevent the regret bounds from being vacuous when the domain is overly large or only partially constrained. The last tool, null updates, prevents the algorithm from performing overly large updates, which could result in unbounded regret, or even invalid updates. We develop a general theory using these tools and apply it to several standard algorithms. In particular, we (almost entirely) restore the adaptivity to small losses of FTRL for unbounded domains, design and prove scale-free adaptive guarantees for a variant of Mirror Descent (at least when the Bregman divergence is convex in its second argument), extend Adapt-ML-Prod to scale-free guarantees, and provide several other minor contributions about Prod, AdaHedge, BOA and Soft-Bayes.

We study the problem of identifying the source of a stochastic diffusion process spreading on a graph based on the arrival times of the diffusion at a few queried nodes. In a graph $G=(V,E)$, an unknown source node $v^* \in V$ is drawn uniformly at random, and unknown edge weights $w(e)$ for $e\in E$, representing the propagation delays along the edges, are drawn independently from a Gaussian distribution of mean $1$ and variance $\sigma^2$. An algorithm then attempts to identify $v^*$ by querying nodes $q \in V$ and being told the length of the shortest path between $q$ and $v^*$ in graph $G$ weighted by $w$. We consider two settings: non-adaptive, in which all query nodes must be decided in advance, and adaptive, in which each query can depend on the results of the previous ones. Both settings are motivated by an application of the problem to epidemic processes (where the source is called patient zero), which we discuss in detail. We characterize the query complexity when $G$ is an $n$-node path. In the non-adaptive setting, $\Theta(n\sigma^2)$ queries are needed for $\sigma^2 \leq 1$, and $\Theta(n)$ for $\sigma^2 \geq 1$. In the adaptive setting, somewhat surprisingly, only $\Theta(\log\log_{1/\sigma}n)$ are needed when $\sigma^2 \leq 1/2$, and $\Theta(\log \log n)+O_\sigma(1)$ when $\sigma^2 \geq 1/2$. This is the first mathematical study of source identification with time queries in a non-deterministic diffusion process.

Forking-based development has made it easier and straightforward for developers to contribute to open-source software (OSS). Developers can fork an existing project and add changes in their local version without interrupting the development process in the main project. Despite the efficiency of OSS, more than 80% of the projects are not sustainable. Identifying the elements related to OSS success can enlighten developers regarding the sustainability of a project. In our study, we explore whether or not the inefficiencies which arise due to forking-based development like redundant development, fragmented communities, lack of modularity, etc. have any relation to the outcome of a project in terms of sustainability. We formulate eight metrics to quantify attributes for projects in the ASFI dataset. To find the correlation between the metrics and the success of a project, we built a logistic regression model to metrics with significant p-values and performed backward stepwise regression analysis, using the stepAIC function in R to cross-check our findings. The findings show that modularity, centralized management index, and hard forks are consequential for the success of a project. Developers can use the outcomes of our research to plan and structure their projects to increase the probability of their success.

We investigate online convex optimization in non-stationary environments and choose the \emph{dynamic regret} as the performance measure, defined as the difference between cumulative loss incurred by the online algorithm and that of any feasible comparator sequence. Let $T$ be the time horizon and $P_T$ be the path-length that essentially reflects the non-stationarity of environments, the state-of-the-art dynamic regret is $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T(1+P_T)})$. Although this bound is proved to be minimax optimal for convex functions, in this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to further enhance the guarantee for some easy problem instances, particularly when online functions are smooth. Specifically, we propose novel online algorithms that can leverage smoothness and replace the dependence on $T$ in the dynamic regret by \emph{problem-dependent} quantities: the variation in gradients of loss functions, the cumulative loss of the comparator sequence, and the minimum of the previous two terms. These quantities are at most $\mathcal{O}(T)$ while could be much smaller in benign environments. Therefore, our results are adaptive to the intrinsic difficulty of the problem, since the bounds are tighter than existing results for easy problems and meanwhile guarantee the same rate in the worst case. Notably, our algorithm requires only \emph{one} gradient per iteration, which shares the same gradient query complexity with the methods developed for optimizing the static regret. As a further application, we extend the results from the full-information setting to bandit convex optimization with two-point feedback and thereby attain the first problem-dependent dynamic regret for such bandit tasks.

Motivated by many interesting real-world applications in logistics and online advertising, we consider an online allocation problem subject to lower and upper resource constraints, where the requests arrive sequentially, sampled i.i.d. from an unknown distribution, and we need to promptly make a decision given limited resources and lower bounds requirements. First, with knowledge of the measure of feasibility, i.e., $\alpha$, we propose a new algorithm that obtains $1-O(\frac{\epsilon}{\alpha-\epsilon})$ -competitive ratio for the offline problems that know the entire requests ahead of time. Inspired by the previous studies, this algorithm adopts an innovative technique to dynamically update a threshold price vector for making decisions. Moreover, an optimization method to estimate the optimal measure of feasibility is proposed with theoretical guarantee at the end of this paper. Based on this method, if we tolerate slight violation of the lower bounds constraints with parameter $\eta$, the proposed algorithm is naturally extended to the settings without strong feasible assumption, which cover the significantly unexplored infeasible scenarios.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

Neural speech synthesis models have recently demonstrated the ability to synthesize high quality speech for text-to-speech and compression applications. These new models often require powerful GPUs to achieve real-time operation, so being able to reduce their complexity would open the way for many new applications. We propose LPCNet, a WaveRNN variant that combines linear prediction with recurrent neural networks to significantly improve the efficiency of speech synthesis. We demonstrate that LPCNet can achieve significantly higher quality than WaveRNN for the same network size and that high quality LPCNet speech synthesis is achievable with a complexity under 3 GFLOPS. This makes it easier to deploy neural synthesis applications on lower-power devices, such as embedded systems and mobile phones.

Eligibility traces are an effective technique to accelerate reinforcement learning by smoothly assigning credit to recently visited states. However, their online implementation is incompatible with modern deep reinforcement learning algorithms, which rely heavily on i.i.d. training data and offline learning. We utilize an efficient, recursive method for computing {\lambda}-returns offline that can provide the benefits of eligibility traces to any value-estimation or actor-critic method. We demonstrate how our method can be combined with DQN, DRQN, and A3C to greatly enhance the learning speed of these algorithms when playing Atari 2600 games, even under partial observability. Our results indicate several-fold improvements to sample efficiency on Seaquest and Q*bert. We expect similar results for other algorithms and domains not considered here, including those with continuous actions.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.