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The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have emerged for causal inference under unconfoundedness conditions given pre-treatment covariates, including propensity score-based methods, prognostic score-based methods, and doubly robust methods. Unfortunately for applied researchers, there is no `one-size-fits-all' causal method that can perform optimally universally. In practice, causal methods are primarily evaluated quantitatively on handcrafted simulated data. Such data-generative procedures can be of limited value because they are typically stylized models of reality. They are simplified for tractability and lack the complexities of real-world data. For applied researchers, it is critical to understand how well a method performs for the data at hand. Our work introduces a deep generative model-based framework, Credence, to validate causal inference methods. The framework's novelty stems from its ability to generate synthetic data anchored at the empirical distribution for the observed sample, and therefore virtually indistinguishable from the latter. The approach allows the user to specify ground truth for the form and magnitude of causal effects and confounding bias as functions of covariates. Thus simulated data sets are used to evaluate the potential performance of various causal estimation methods when applied to data similar to the observed sample. We demonstrate Credence's ability to accurately assess the relative performance of causal estimation techniques in an extensive simulation study and two real-world data applications from Lalonde and Project STAR studies.

Purpose of Review: Negative controls are a powerful tool to detect and adjust for bias in epidemiological research. This paper introduces negative controls to a broader audience and provides guidance on principled design and causal analysis based on a formal negative control framework. Recent Findings: We review and summarize causal and statistical assumptions, practical strategies, and validation criteria that can be combined with subject matter knowledge to perform negative control analyses. We also review existing statistical methodologies for detection, reduction, and correction of confounding bias, and briefly discuss recent advances towards nonparametric identification of causal effects in a double negative control design. Summary: There is great potential for valid and accurate causal inference leveraging contemporary healthcare data in which negative controls are routinely available. Design and analysis of observational data leveraging negative controls is an area of growing interest in health and social sciences. Despite these developments, further effort is needed to disseminate these novel methods to ensure they are adopted by practicing epidemiologists.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) have recently emerged as a promising class of generative models. However, a fundamental limitation is that their inference is very slow due to a need for many (e.g., 2000) iterations of sequential computations. An intuitive acceleration method is to reduce the sampling iterations which however causes severe performance degradation. We investigate this problem by viewing the diffusion sampling process as a Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, which helps reveal the underlying cause to be ill-conditioned curvature. Under this insight, we propose a model-agnostic preconditioned diffusion sampling (PDS) method that leverages matrix preconditioning to alleviate the aforementioned problem. Crucially, PDS is proven theoretically to converge to the original target distribution of a SGM, no need for retraining. Extensive experiments on three image datasets with a variety of resolutions and diversity validate that PDS consistently accelerates off-the-shelf SGMs whilst maintaining the synthesis quality. In particular, PDS can accelerate by up to 29x on more challenging high resolution (1024x1024) image generation.

A permanently increasing number of on-board automotive control systems requires new approaches to their digital mapping that improves functionality in terms of adaptability and robustness as well as enables their easier on-line software update. As it can be concluded from many recent studies, various methods applying neural networks (NN) can be good candidates for relevant digital twin (DT) tools in automotive control system design, for example, for controller parameterization and condition monitoring. However, the NN-based DT has strong requirements to an adequate amount of data to be used in training and design. In this regard, the paper presents an approach, which demonstrates how the regression tasks can be efficiently handled by the modeling of a semi-active shock absorber within the DT framework. The approach is based on the adaptation of time series augmentation techniques to the stationary data that increases the variance of the latter. Such a solution gives a background to elaborate further data engineering methods for the data preparation of sophisticated databases.

A fundamental aspect of statistics is the integration of data from different sources. Classically, Fisher and others were focused on how to integrate homogeneous (or only mildly heterogeneous) sets of data. More recently, as data is becoming more accessible, the question of if data sets from different sources should be integrated is becoming more relevant. The current literature treats this as a question with only two answers: integrate or don't. Here we take a different approach, motivated by information-sharing principles coming from the shrinkage estimation literature. In particular, we deviate from the do/don't perspective and propose a dial parameter that controls the extent to which two data sources are integrated. How far this dial parameter should be turned is shown to depend, for example, on the informativeness of the different data sources as measured by Fisher information. In the context of generalized linear models, this more nuanced data integration framework leads to relatively simple parameter estimates and valid tests/confidence intervals. Moreover, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that setting the dial parameter according to our recommendation leads to more efficient estimation compared to other binary data integration schemes.

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider causal inference when the actors are connected via an underlying network structure. Our key contribution is a model for causality when the underlying network is unobserved and the actor covariates evolve stochastically over time. We develop a joint model for the relational and covariate generating process that avoids restrictive separability assumptions and deterministic network assumptions that do not hold in the majority of social network settings of interest. Our framework utilizes the highly general class of Exponential-family Random Network models (ERNM) of which Markov Random Fields (MRF) and Exponential-family Random Graph models (ERGM) are special cases. We present potential outcome based inference within a Bayesian framework, and propose a simple modification to the exchange algorithm to allow for sampling from ERNM posteriors. We present results of a simulation study demonstrating the validity of the approach. Finally, we demonstrate the value of the framework in a case-study of smoking over time in the context of adolescent friendship networks.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a task that is receiving an increasing amount of research attention in the domain of deep learning for computer vision. However, the performance of detection methods is generally evaluated on the task in isolation, rather than also considering potential downstream tasks in tandem. In this work, we examine selective classification in the presence of OOD data (SCOD). That is to say, the motivation for detecting OOD samples is to reject them so their impact on the quality of predictions is reduced. We show under this task specification, that existing post-hoc methods perform quite differently compared to when evaluated only on OOD detection. This is because it is no longer an issue to conflate in-distribution (ID) data with OOD data if the ID data is going to be misclassified. However, the conflation within ID data of correct and incorrect predictions becomes undesirable. We also propose a novel method for SCOD, Softmax Information Retaining Combination (SIRC), that augments softmax-based confidence scores with feature-agnostic information such that their ability to identify OOD samples is improved without sacrificing separation between correct and incorrect ID predictions. Experiments on a wide variety of ImageNet-scale datasets and convolutional neural network architectures show that SIRC is able to consistently match or outperform the baseline for SCOD, whilst existing OOD detection methods fail to do so.

The kernel herding algorithm is used to construct quadrature rules in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). While the computational efficiency of the algorithm and stability of the output quadrature formulas are advantages of this method, the convergence speed of the integration error for a given number of nodes is slow compared to that of other quadrature methods. In this paper, we propose a modified kernel herding algorithm whose framework was introduced in a previous study and aim to obtain sparser solutions while preserving the advantages of standard kernel herding. In the proposed algorithm, the negative gradient is approximated by several vertex directions, and the current solution is updated by moving in the approximate descent direction in each iteration. We show that the convergence speed of the integration error is directly determined by the cosine of the angle between the negative gradient and approximate gradient. Based on this, we propose new gradient approximation algorithms and analyze them theoretically, including through convergence analysis. In numerical experiments, we confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms in terms of sparsity of nodes and computational efficiency. Moreover, we provide a new theoretical analysis of the kernel quadrature rules with fully-corrective weights, which realizes faster convergence speeds than those of previous studies.

In this work, we propose a novel framework for the numerical solution of time-dependent conservation laws with implicit schemes via primal-dual hybrid gradient methods. We solve an initial value problem (IVP) for the partial differential equation (PDE) by casting it as a saddle point of a min-max problem and using iterative optimization methods to find the saddle point. Our approach is flexible with the choice of both time and spatial discretization schemes. It benefits from the implicit structure and gains large regions of stability, and overcomes the restriction on the mesh size in time by explicit schemes from Courant--Friedrichs--Lewy (CFL) conditions (really via von Neumann stability analysis). Nevertheless, it is highly parallelizable and easy-to-implement. In particular, no nonlinear inversions are required! Specifically, we illustrate our approach using the finite difference scheme and discontinuous Galerkin method for the spatial scheme; backward Euler and backward differentiation formulas for implicit discretization in time. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the approach. In future work, we will demonstrate that our idea of replacing an initial-value evolution equation with this primal-dual hybrid gradient approach has great advantages in many other situations.

Interpretability methods are developed to understand the working mechanisms of black-box models, which is crucial to their responsible deployment. Fulfilling this goal requires both that the explanations generated by these methods are correct and that people can easily and reliably understand them. While the former has been addressed in prior work, the latter is often overlooked, resulting in informal model understanding derived from a handful of local explanations. In this paper, we introduce explanation summary (ExSum), a mathematical framework for quantifying model understanding, and propose metrics for its quality assessment. On two domains, ExSum highlights various limitations in the current practice, helps develop accurate model understanding, and reveals easily overlooked properties of the model. We also connect understandability to other properties of explanations such as human alignment, robustness, and counterfactual minimality and plausibility.