Predictive process analytics focuses on predicting future states, such as the outcome of running process instances. These techniques often use machine learning models or deep learning models (such as LSTM) to make such predictions. However, these deep models are complex and difficult for users to understand. Counterfactuals answer ``what-if'' questions, which are used to understand the reasoning behind the predictions. For example, what if instead of emailing customers, customers are being called? Would this alternative lead to a different outcome? Current methods to generate counterfactual sequences either do not take the process behavior into account, leading to generating invalid or infeasible counterfactual process instances, or heavily rely on domain knowledge. In this work, we propose a general framework that uses evolutionary methods to generate counterfactual sequences. Our framework does not require domain knowledge. Instead, we propose to train a Markov model to compute the feasibility of generated counterfactual sequences and adapt three other measures (delta in outcome prediction, similarity, and sparsity) to ensure their overall viability. The evaluation shows that we generate viable counterfactual sequences, outperform baseline methods in viability, and yield similar results when compared to the state-of-the-art method that requires domain knowledge.
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Graph contrastive learning has emerged as a powerful tool for unsupervised graph representation learning. The key to the success of graph contrastive learning is to acquire high-quality positive and negative samples as contrasting pairs for the purpose of learning underlying structural semantics of the input graph. Recent works usually sample negative samples from the same training batch with the positive samples, or from an external irrelevant graph. However, a significant limitation lies in such strategies, which is the unavoidable problem of sampling false negative samples. In this paper, we propose a novel method to utilize \textbf{C}ounterfactual mechanism to generate artificial hard negative samples for \textbf{G}raph \textbf{C}ontrastive learning, namely \textbf{CGC}, which has a different perspective compared to those sampling-based strategies. We utilize counterfactual mechanism to produce hard negative samples, which ensures that the generated samples are similar to, but have labels that different from the positive sample. The proposed method achieves satisfying results on several datasets compared to some traditional unsupervised graph learning methods and some SOTA graph contrastive learning methods. We also conduct some supplementary experiments to give an extensive illustration of the proposed method, including the performances of CGC with different hard negative samples and evaluations for hard negative samples generated with different similarity measurements.
In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), counterfactual explanations are known to give simple, short, and comprehensible justifications for complex model decisions. However, we are yet to see more applied studies in which they are applied in real-world cases. To fill this gap, this study focuses on showing how counterfactuals are applied to employability-related problems which involve complex machine learning algorithms. For these use cases, we use real data obtained from a public Belgian employment institution (VDAB). The use cases presented go beyond the mere application of counterfactuals as explanations, showing how they can enhance decision support, comply with legal requirements, guide controlled changes, and analyze novel insights.
Digital transformation in buildings accumulates massive operational data, which calls for smart solutions to utilize these data to improve energy performance. This study has proposed a solution, namely Deep Energy Twin, for integrating deep learning and digital twins to better understand building energy use and identify the potential for improving energy efficiency. Ontology was adopted to create parametric digital twins to provide consistency of data format across different systems in a building. Based on created digital twins and collected data, deep learning methods were used for performing data analytics to identify patterns and provide insights for energy optimization. As a demonstration, a case study was conducted in a public historic building in Norrk\"oping, Sweden, to compare the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning architectures in building energy forecasting.
Visual quality inspection in high performance manufacturing can benefit from automation, due to cost savings and improved rigor. Deep learning techniques are the current state of the art for generic computer vision tasks like classification and object detection. Manufacturing data can pose a challenge for deep learning because data is highly repetitive and there are few images of defects or deviations to learn from. Deep learning models trained with such data can be fragile and sensitive to context, and can under-detect new defects not found in the training data. In this work, we explore training defect detection models to learn specific defects out of context, so that they are more likely to be detected in new situations. We demonstrate how models trained on diverse images containing a common defect type can pick defects out in new circumstances. Such generic models could be more robust to new defects not found data collected for training, and can reduce data collection impediments to implementing visual inspection on production lines. Additionally, we demonstrate that object detection models trained to predict a label and bounding box outperform classifiers that predict a label only on held out test data typical of manufacturing inspection tasks. Finally, we studied the factors that affect generalization in order to train models that work under a wider range of conditions.
Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the model changes. Most of the existing methods can only provide one CE, which may not be achievable for the user. In this work we derive an iterative method to calculate robust CEs, i.e. CEs that remain valid even after the features are slightly perturbed. To this end, our method provides a whole region of CEs allowing the user to choose a suitable recourse to obtain a desired outcome. We use algorithmic ideas from robust optimization and prove convergence results for the most common machine learning methods including logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and neural networks. Our experiments show that our method can efficiently generate globally optimal robust CEs for a variety of common data sets and classification models.
Agile maneuvers are essential for robot-enabled complex tasks such as surgical procedures. Prior explorations on surgery autonomy are limited to feasibility study of completing a single task without systematically addressing generic manipulation safety across different tasks. We present an integrated planning and control framework for 6-DoF robotic instruments for pipeline automation of surgical tasks.We leverage the geometry of a robotic instrument and propose the nodal state space (NSS) to represent the robot state in SE(3) space. Each elementary robot motion could be encoded by regulation of the state parameters via a dynamical system. This theoretically ensures that every in-process trajectory is globally feasible and stably reached to an admissible target, and the controller is of closed-form without computing 6-DoF inverse kinematics. Then, to plan the motion steps reliably, we propose an interactive (instant) goal state of the robot that transforms manipulation planning through desired path constraints into a goal-varying manipulation (GVM) problem. We detail how GVM could adaptively and smoothly plan the procedure (could proceed or rewind the process as needed) based on on-the-fly situations under dynamic or disturbed environment. Finally, we extend the above policy to characterize complete pipelines of various surgical tasks. Simulations show that our framework could smoothly solve twisted maneuvers while avoiding collisions. Physical experiments using the da Vinci Research Kit (dVRK) validates the capability of automating individual tasks including tissue debridement, dissection, and wound suturing. The results confirm good task-level consistency and reliability compared to state-of-the-art automation algorithms.
In recent years, Graph Neural Networks have reported outstanding performance in tasks like community detection, molecule classification and link prediction. However, the black-box nature of these models prevents their application in domains like health and finance, where understanding the models' decisions is essential. Counterfactual Explanations (CE) provide these understandings through examples. Moreover, the literature on CE is flourishing with novel explanation methods which are tailored to graph learning. In this survey, we analyse the existing Graph Counterfactual Explanation methods, by providing the reader with an organisation of the literature according to a uniform formal notation for definitions, datasets, and metrics, thus, simplifying potential comparisons w.r.t to the method advantages and disadvantages. We discussed seven methods and sixteen synthetic and real datasets providing details on the possible generation strategies. We highlight the most common evaluation strategies and formalise nine of the metrics used in the literature. We first introduce the evaluation framework GRETEL and how it is possible to extend and use it while providing a further dimension of comparison encompassing reproducibility aspects. Finally, we provide a discussion on how counterfactual explanation interplays with privacy and fairness, before delving into open challenges and future works.
Structural data well exists in Web applications, such as social networks in social media, citation networks in academic websites, and threads data in online forums. Due to the complex topology, it is difficult to process and make use of the rich information within such data. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great advantages on learning representations for structural data. However, the non-transparency of the deep learning models makes it non-trivial to explain and interpret the predictions made by GNNs. Meanwhile, it is also a big challenge to evaluate the GNN explanations, since in many cases, the ground-truth explanations are unavailable. In this paper, we take insights of Counterfactual and Factual (CF^2) reasoning from causal inference theory, to solve both the learning and evaluation problems in explainable GNNs. For generating explanations, we propose a model-agnostic framework by formulating an optimization problem based on both of the two casual perspectives. This distinguishes CF^2 from previous explainable GNNs that only consider one of them. Another contribution of the work is the evaluation of GNN explanations. For quantitatively evaluating the generated explanations without the requirement of ground-truth, we design metrics based on Counterfactual and Factual reasoning to evaluate the necessity and sufficiency of the explanations. Experiments show that no matter ground-truth explanations are available or not, CF^2 generates better explanations than previous state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets. Moreover, the statistic analysis justifies the correlation between the performance on ground-truth evaluation and our proposed metrics.
Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.
Incorporating knowledge graph into recommender systems has attracted increasing attention in recent years. By exploring the interlinks within a knowledge graph, the connectivity between users and items can be discovered as paths, which provide rich and complementary information to user-item interactions. Such connectivity not only reveals the semantics of entities and relations, but also helps to comprehend a user's interest. However, existing efforts have not fully explored this connectivity to infer user preferences, especially in terms of modeling the sequential dependencies within and holistic semantics of a path. In this paper, we contribute a new model named Knowledge-aware Path Recurrent Network (KPRN) to exploit knowledge graph for recommendation. KPRN can generate path representations by composing the semantics of both entities and relations. By leveraging the sequential dependencies within a path, we allow effective reasoning on paths to infer the underlying rationale of a user-item interaction. Furthermore, we design a new weighted pooling operation to discriminate the strengths of different paths in connecting a user with an item, endowing our model with a certain level of explainability. We conduct extensive experiments on two datasets about movie and music, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art solutions Collaborative Knowledge Base Embedding and Neural Factorization Machine.
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