In any given machine learning problem, there may be many models that could explain the data almost equally well. However, most learning algorithms return only one of these models, leaving practitioners with no practical way to explore alternative models that might have desirable properties beyond what could be expressed within a loss function. The Rashomon set is the set of these all almost-optimal models. Rashomon sets can be extremely complicated, particularly for highly nonlinear function classes that allow complex interaction terms, such as decision trees. We provide the first technique for completely enumerating the Rashomon set for sparse decision trees; in fact, our work provides the first complete enumeration of any Rashomon set for a non-trivial problem with a highly nonlinear discrete function class. This allows the user an unprecedented level of control over model choice among all models that are approximately equally good. We represent the Rashomon set in a specialized data structure that supports efficient querying and sampling. We show three applications of the Rashomon set: 1) it can be used to study variable importance for the set of almost-optimal trees (as opposed to a single tree), 2) the Rashomon set for accuracy enables enumeration of the Rashomon sets for balanced accuracy and F1-score, and 3) the Rashomon set for a full dataset can be used to produce Rashomon sets constructed with only subsets of the data set. Thus, we are able to examine Rashomon sets across problems with a new lens, enabling users to choose models rather than be at the mercy of an algorithm that produces only a single model.
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A vast majority of the current research in the field of Machine Learning is done using algorithms with strong arguments pointing to their biological implausibility such as Backpropagation, deviating the field's focus from understanding its original organic inspiration to a compulsive search for optimal performance. Yet, there have been a few proposed models that respect most of the biological constraints present in the human brain and are valid candidates for mimicking some of its properties and mechanisms. In this paper, we will focus on guiding the learning of a biologically plausible generative model called the Helmholtz Machine in complex search spaces using a heuristic based on the Human Image Perception mechanism. We hypothesize that this model's learning algorithm is not fit for Deep Networks due to its Hebbian-like local update rule, rendering it incapable of taking full advantage of the compositional properties that multi-layer networks provide. We propose to overcome this problem, by providing the network's hidden layers with visual queues at different resolutions using a Multi-level Data representation. The results on several image datasets showed the model was able to not only obtain better overall quality but also a wider diversity in the generated images, corroborating our intuition that using our proposed heuristic allows the model to take more advantage of the network's depth growth. More importantly, they show the unexplored possibilities underlying brain-inspired models and techniques.
Sparse decision trees are one of the most common forms of interpretable models. While recent advances have produced algorithms that fully optimize sparse decision trees for prediction, that work does not address policy design, because the algorithms cannot handle weighted data samples. Specifically, they rely on the discreteness of the loss function, which means that real-valued weights cannot be directly used. For example, none of the existing techniques produce policies that incorporate inverse propensity weighting on individual data points. We present three algorithms for efficient sparse weighted decision tree optimization. The first approach directly optimizes the weighted loss function; however, it tends to be computationally inefficient for large datasets. Our second approach, which scales more efficiently, transforms weights to integer values and uses data duplication to transform the weighted decision tree optimization problem into an unweighted (but larger) counterpart. Our third algorithm, which scales to much larger datasets, uses a randomized procedure that samples each data point with a probability proportional to its weight. We present theoretical bounds on the error of the two fast methods and show experimentally that these methods can be two orders of magnitude faster than the direct optimization of the weighted loss, without losing significant accuracy.
We consider optimization problems in which the goal is find a $k$-dimensional subspace of $\mathbb{R}^n$, $k<<n$, which minimizes a convex and smooth loss. Such problems generalize the fundamental task of principal component analysis (PCA) to include robust and sparse counterparts, and logistic PCA for binary data, among others. This problem could be approached either via nonconvex gradient methods with highly-efficient iterations, but for which arguing about fast convergence to a global minimizer is difficult or, via a convex relaxation for which arguing about convergence to a global minimizer is straightforward, but the corresponding methods are often inefficient in high dimensions. In this work we bridge these two approaches under a strict complementarity assumption, which in particular implies that the optimal solution to the convex relaxation is unique and is also the optimal solution to the original nonconvex problem. Our main result is a proof that a natural nonconvex gradient method which is \textit{SVD-free} and requires only a single QR-factorization of an $n\times k$ matrix per iteration, converges locally with a linear rate. We also establish linear convergence results for the nonconvex projected gradient method, and the Frank-Wolfe method when applied to the convex relaxation.
In this manuscript, we show that any neural network with any activation function can be represented as a decision tree. The representation is equivalence and not an approximation, thus keeping the accuracy of the neural network exactly as is. We believe that this work provides better understanding of neural networks and paves the way to tackle their black-box nature. We share equivalent trees of some neural networks and show that besides providing interpretability, tree representation can also achieve some computational advantages for small networks. The analysis holds both for fully connected and convolutional networks, which may or may not also include skip connections and/or normalizations.
The utilization of renewable energy technologies, particularly hydrogen, has seen a boom in interest and has spread throughout the world. Ethanol steam reformation is one of the primary methods capable of producing hydrogen efficiently and reliably. This paper provides an in-depth study of the reformulated system both theoretically and numerically, as well as a plan to explore the possibility of converting the system into its conservation form. Lastly, we offer an overview of several numerical approaches for solving the general first-order quasi-linear hyperbolic equation to the particular model for ethanol steam reforming (ESR). We conclude by presenting some results that would enable the usage of these ODE/PDE solvers to be used in non-linear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithms and discuss the limitations of our approach and directions for future work.
Conformal inference is a powerful tool for quantifying the uncertainty around predictions made by black-box models (e.g. neural nets, random forests). Formally, this methodology guarantees that if the training and test data are exchangeable (e.g. i.i.d.) then we can construct a prediction set $C$ for the target $Y$ such that $P(Y \in C) = 1-\alpha$ for any target level $\alpha$. In this article, we extend this methodology to an online prediction setting where the distribution generating the data is allowed to vary over time. To account for the non-exchangeability, we develop a protective layer that lies on top of conformal inference and gradually re-calibrates its predictions to adapt to the observed changes in the environment. Our methods are highly flexible and can be used in combination with any predictive algorithm that produces estimates of the target or its conditional distribution and without any assumptions on the size or type of the distribution shift. We test our techniques on two real-world datasets aimed at predicting stock market volatility and COVID-19 case counts and find that they are robust and adaptive to real-world distribution shifts.
Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals, i.e. scalar summaries, of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the confidence interval for a treatment effect estimated with a neural network. We provide a nonasymptotic debiased machine learning theorem that encompasses any global or local functional of any machine learning algorithm that satisfies a few simple, interpretable conditions. Formally, we prove consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency by finite sample arguments. The rate of convergence is $n^{-1/2}$ for global functionals, and it degrades gracefully for local functionals. Our results culminate in a simple set of conditions that an analyst can use to translate modern learning theory rates into traditional statistical inference. The conditions reveal a general double robustness property for ill posed inverse problems.
We study the deviation inequality for a sum of high-dimensional random matrices and operators with dependence and arbitrary heavy tails. There is an increase in the importance of the problem of estimating high-dimensional matrices, and dependence and heavy-tail properties of data are among the most critical topics currently. In this paper, we derive a dimension-free upper bound on the deviation, that is, the bound does not depend explicitly on the dimension of matrices, but depends on their effective rank. Our result is a generalization of several existing studies on the deviation of the sum of matrices. Our proof is based on two techniques: (i) a variational approximation of the dual of moment generating functions, and (ii) robustification through truncation of eigenvalues of matrices. We show that our results are applicable to several problems such as covariance matrix estimation, hidden Markov models, and overparameterized linear regression models.
A Semiparametric Approach to the Detection of Change-points in Volatility Dynamics of Financial Data
One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful identification of change-points. A common approach to modeling the volatility of time series data is the well-known GARCH model. Although the problem of change-point estimation of volatility dynamics derived from the GARCH model has been considered in the literature, these approaches rely on parametric assumptions of the conditional error distribution, which are often violated in financial time series. This may lead to inaccuracies in change-point detection resulting in unreliable GARCH volatility estimates. This paper introduces a novel change-point detection algorithm based on a semiparametric GARCH model. The proposed method retains the structural advantages of the GARCH process while incorporating the flexibility of nonparametric conditional error distribution. The approach utilizes a penalized likelihood derived from a semiparametric GARCH model and an efficient binary segmentation algorithm. The results show that in terms of change-point estimation and detection accuracy, the semiparametric method outperforms the commonly used Quasi-MLE (QMLE) and other variations of GARCH models in wide-ranging scenarios.
In 1954, Alston S. Householder published Principles of Numerical Analysis, one of the first modern treatments on matrix decomposition that favored a (block) LU decomposition-the factorization of a matrix into the product of lower and upper triangular matrices. And now, matrix decomposition has become a core technology in machine learning, largely due to the development of the back propagation algorithm in fitting a neural network. The sole aim of this survey is to give a self-contained introduction to concepts and mathematical tools in numerical linear algebra and matrix analysis in order to seamlessly introduce matrix decomposition techniques and their applications in subsequent sections. However, we clearly realize our inability to cover all the useful and interesting results concerning matrix decomposition and given the paucity of scope to present this discussion, e.g., the separated analysis of the Euclidean space, Hermitian space, Hilbert space, and things in the complex domain. We refer the reader to literature in the field of linear algebra for a more detailed introduction to the related fields.
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