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Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a quantitative approach to the drug benefit-risk assessment (BRA) which allows for consistent comparisons by summarising all benefits and risks in a single score. The MCDA consists of several components, one of which is the utility (or loss) score function that defines how benefits and risks are aggregated into a single quantity. While a linear utility score is one of the most widely used approach in BRA, it is recognised that it can result in counter-intuitive decisions, for example, recommending a treatment with extremely low benefits or high risks. To overcome this problem, alternative approaches to the scores construction, namely, product, multi-linear and Scale Loss Score models, were suggested. However, to date, the majority of arguments concerning the differences implied by these models are heuristic. In this work, we consider four models to calculate the aggregated utility/loss scores and compared their performance in an extensive simulation study over many different scenarios, and in a case study. It is found that the product and Scale Loss Score models provide more intuitive treatment recommendation decisions in the majority of scenarios compared to the linear and multi-linear models, and are more robust to the correlation in the criteria.

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Autism Spectrum Disorder(ASD) is a set of neurodevelopmental conditions that affect patients' social abilities. In recent years, many studies have employed deep learning to diagnose this brain dysfunction through functional MRI (fMRI). However, existing approaches solely focused on the abnormal brain functional connections but ignored the impact of regional activities. Due to this biased prior knowledge, previous diagnosis models suffered from inter-site heterogeneity and inter-individual phenotypic differences. To address this issue, we propose a novel feature extraction method for fMRI that can learn a personalized lower-resolution representation of the entire brain networking regarding both the functional connections and regional activities. Specifically, we abstract the brain imaging as a graph structure and straightforwardly downsample it to sparse substructures by hierarchical graph pooling. The down-scaled feature vectors are embedded into a population graph where the hidden inter-subject heterogeneity and homogeneity are explicitly expressed as inter- and intra-community connectivity differences. Subsequently, we fuse the imaging and non-imaging information by graph convolutional networks (GCN), which recalibrates features to node embeddings under phenotypic statistics. By these means, our framework can extract features directly and efficiently from the entire fMRI and be aware of implicit inter-individual variance. We have evaluated our framework on the ABIDE-I dataset with 10-fold cross-validation. The present model has achieved a mean classification accuracy of 85.95\% and a mean AUC of 0.92, better than the state-of-the-art methods.

There are a variety of settings where vague prior information may be available on the importance of predictors in high-dimensional regression settings. Examples include ordering on the variables offered by their empirical variances (which is typically discarded through standardisation), the lag of predictors when fitting autoregressive models in time series settings, or the level of missingness of the variables. Whilst such orderings may not match the true importance of variables, we argue that there is little to be lost, and potentially much to be gained, by using them. We propose a simple scheme involving fitting a sequence of models indicated by the ordering. We show that the computational cost for fitting all models when ridge regression is used is no more than for a single fit of ridge regression, and describe a strategy for Lasso regression that makes use of previous fits to greatly speed up fitting the entire sequence of models. We propose to select a final estimator by cross-validation and provide a general result on the quality of the best performing estimator on a test set selected from among a number $M$ of competing estimators in a high-dimensional linear regression setting. Our result requires no sparsity assumptions and shows that only a $\log M$ price is incurred compared to the unknown best estimator. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach when applied to missing or corrupted data, and time series settings. An R package is available on github.

Algorithmic recommendations and decisions have become ubiquitous in today's society. Many of these and other data-driven policies are based on known, deterministic rules to ensure their transparency and interpretability. This is especially true when such policies are used for public policy decision-making. For example, algorithmic pre-trial risk assessments, which serve as our motivating application, provide relatively simple, deterministic classification scores and recommendations to help judges make release decisions. Unfortunately, existing methods for policy learning are not applicable because they require existing policies to be stochastic rather than deterministic. We develop a robust optimization approach that partially identifies the expected utility of a policy, and then finds an optimal policy by minimizing the worst-case regret. The resulting policy is conservative but has a statistical safety guarantee, allowing the policy-maker to limit the probability of producing a worse outcome than the existing policy. We extend this approach to common and important settings where humans make decisions with the aid of algorithmic recommendations. Lastly, we apply the proposed methodology to a unique field experiment on pre-trial risk assessments. We derive new classification and recommendation rules that retain the transparency and interpretability of the existing risk assessment instrument while potentially leading to better overall outcomes at a lower cost.

Despite the considerable success of neural networks in security settings such as malware detection, such models have proved vulnerable to evasion attacks, in which attackers make slight changes to inputs (e.g., malware) to bypass detection. We propose a novel approach, \emph{Fourier stabilization}, for designing evasion-robust neural networks with binary inputs. This approach, which is complementary to other forms of defense, replaces the weights of individual neurons with robust analogs derived using Fourier analytic tools. The choice of which neurons to stabilize in a neural network is then a combinatorial optimization problem, and we propose several methods for approximately solving it. We provide a formal bound on the per-neuron drop in accuracy due to Fourier stabilization, and experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in boosting robustness of neural networks in several detection settings. Moreover, we show that our approach effectively composes with adversarial training.

Perturbations targeting the graph structure have proven to be extremely effective in reducing the performance of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and traditional defenses such as adversarial training do not seem to be able to improve robustness. This work is motivated by the observation that adversarially injected edges effectively can be viewed as additional samples to a node's neighborhood aggregation function, which results in distorted aggregations accumulating over the layers. Conventional GNN aggregation functions, such as a sum or mean, can be distorted arbitrarily by a single outlier. We propose a robust aggregation function motivated by the field of robust statistics. Our approach exhibits the largest possible breakdown point of 0.5, which means that the bias of the aggregation is bounded as long as the fraction of adversarial edges of a node is less than 50\%. Our novel aggregation function, Soft Medoid, is a fully differentiable generalization of the Medoid and therefore lends itself well for end-to-end deep learning. Equipping a GNN with our aggregation improves the robustness with respect to structure perturbations on Cora ML by a factor of 3 (and 5.5 on Citeseer) and by a factor of 8 for low-degree nodes.

There has been appreciable progress in unsupervised network representation learning (UNRL) approaches over graphs recently with flexible random-walk approaches, new optimization objectives and deep architectures. However, there is no common ground for systematic comparison of embeddings to understand their behavior for different graphs and tasks. In this paper we theoretically group different approaches under a unifying framework and empirically investigate the effectiveness of different network representation methods. In particular, we argue that most of the UNRL approaches either explicitly or implicit model and exploit context information of a node. Consequently, we propose a framework that casts a variety of approaches -- random walk based, matrix factorization and deep learning based -- into a unified context-based optimization function. We systematically group the methods based on their similarities and differences. We study the differences among these methods in detail which we later use to explain their performance differences (on downstream tasks). We conduct a large-scale empirical study considering 9 popular and recent UNRL techniques and 11 real-world datasets with varying structural properties and two common tasks -- node classification and link prediction. We find that there is no single method that is a clear winner and that the choice of a suitable method is dictated by certain properties of the embedding methods, task and structural properties of the underlying graph. In addition we also report the common pitfalls in evaluation of UNRL methods and come up with suggestions for experimental design and interpretation of results.

There has been appreciable progress in unsupervised network representation learning (UNRL) approaches over graphs recently with flexible random-walk approaches, new optimization objectives and deep architectures. However, there is no common ground for systematic comparison of embeddings to understand their behavior for different graphs and tasks. In this paper we theoretically group different approaches under a unifying framework and empirically investigate the effectiveness of different network representation methods. In particular, we argue that most of the UNRL approaches either explicitly or implicit model and exploit context information of a node. Consequently, we propose a framework that casts a variety of approaches -- random walk based, matrix factorization and deep learning based -- into a unified context-based optimization function. We systematically group the methods based on their similarities and differences. We study the differences among these methods in detail which we later use to explain their performance differences (on downstream tasks). We conduct a large-scale empirical study considering 9 popular and recent UNRL techniques and 11 real-world datasets with varying structural properties and two common tasks -- node classification and link prediction. We find that there is no single method that is a clear winner and that the choice of a suitable method is dictated by certain properties of the embedding methods, task and structural properties of the underlying graph. In addition we also report the common pitfalls in evaluation of UNRL methods and come up with suggestions for experimental design and interpretation of results.

The task of Question Answering has gained prominence in the past few decades for testing the ability of machines to understand natural language. Large datasets for Machine Reading have led to the development of neural models that cater to deeper language understanding compared to information retrieval tasks. Different components in these neural architectures are intended to tackle different challenges. As a first step towards achieving generalization across multiple domains, we attempt to understand and compare the peculiarities of existing end-to-end neural models on the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) by performing quantitative as well as qualitative analysis of the results attained by each of them. We observed that prediction errors reflect certain model-specific biases, which we further discuss in this paper.

In this paper we discuss policy iteration methods for approximate solution of a finite-state discounted Markov decision problem, with a focus on feature-based aggregation methods and their connection with deep reinforcement learning schemes. We introduce features of the states of the original problem, and we formulate a smaller "aggregate" Markov decision problem, whose states relate to the features. The optimal cost function of the aggregate problem, a nonlinear function of the features, serves as an architecture for approximation in value space of the optimal cost function or the cost functions of policies of the original problem. We discuss properties and possible implementations of this type of aggregation, including a new approach to approximate policy iteration. In this approach the policy improvement operation combines feature-based aggregation with reinforcement learning based on deep neural networks, which is used to obtain the needed features. We argue that the cost function of a policy may be approximated much more accurately by the nonlinear function of the features provided by aggregation, than by the linear function of the features provided by deep reinforcement learning, thereby potentially leading to more effective policy improvement.

Topic models are one of the most frequently used models in machine learning due to its high interpretability and modular structure. However extending the model to include supervisory signal, incorporate pre-trained word embedding vectors and add nonlinear output function to the model is not an easy task because one has to resort to highly intricate approximate inference procedure. In this paper, we show that topic models could be viewed as performing a neighborhood aggregation algorithm where the messages are passed through a network defined over words. Under the network view of topic models, nodes corresponds to words in a document and edges correspond to either a relationship describing co-occurring words in a document or a relationship describing same word in the corpus. The network view allows us to extend the model to include supervisory signals, incorporate pre-trained word embedding vectors and add nonlinear output function to the model in a simple manner. Moreover, we describe a simple way to train the model that is well suited in a semi-supervised setting where we only have supervisory signals for some portion of the corpus and the goal is to improve prediction performance in the held-out data. Through careful experiments we show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation implementation in both held-out document classification tasks and topic coherence.

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