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Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be highly challenging, especially when observed variables are generated by causally related latent variables and the relationships are nonlinear. In this work, we investigate the identification problem for nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models in which observed variables are generated by a set of causally related latent variables, and some latent variables may not have observed children. We show that the identifiability of both causal structure and latent variables can be achieved under mild assumptions: on causal structures, we allow for the existence of multiple paths between any pair of variables in the graph, which relaxes latent tree assumptions in prior work; on structural functions, we do not make parametric assumptions, thus permitting general nonlinearity and multi-dimensional continuous variables. Specifically, we first develop a basic identification criterion in the form of novel identifiability guarantees for an elementary latent variable model. Leveraging this criterion, we show that both causal structures and latent variables of the hierarchical model can be identified asymptotically by explicitly constructing an estimation procedure. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to establish identifiability guarantees for both causal structures and latent variables in nonlinear latent hierarchical models.

We introduce a generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) next of kin aiming at distribution-free and parsimonious regression modelling for arbitrary outcomes. We replace the strict parametric distribution formulating such a model by a transformation function, which in turn is estimated from data. Doing so not only makes the model distribution-free but also allows to limit the number of linear or smooth model terms to a pair of location-scale predictor functions. We derive the likelihood for continuous, discrete, and randomly censored observations, along with corresponding score functions. A plethora of existing algorithms is leveraged for model estimation, including constrained maximum-likelihood, the original GAMLSS algorithm, and transformation trees. Parameter interpretability in the resulting models is closely connected to model selection. We propose the application of a novel best subset selection procedure to achieve especially simple ways of interpretation. All techniques are motivated and illustrated by a collection of applications from different domains, including crossing and partial proportional hazards, complex count regression, non-linear ordinal regression, and growth curves. All analyses are reproducible with the help of the "tram" add-on package to the R system for statistical computing and graphics.

It is often of interest to assess whether a function-valued statistical parameter, such as a density function or a mean regression function, is equal to any function in a class of candidate null parameters. This can be framed as a statistical inference problem where the target estimand is a scalar measure of dissimilarity between the true function-valued parameter and the closest function among all candidate null values. These estimands are typically defined to be zero when the null holds and positive otherwise. While there is well-established theory and methodology for performing efficient inference when one assumes a parametric model for the function-valued parameter, methods for inference in the nonparametric setting are limited. When the null holds, and the target estimand resides at the boundary of the parameter space, existing nonparametric estimators either achieve a non-standard limiting distribution or a sub-optimal convergence rate, making inference challenging. In this work, we propose a strategy for constructing nonparametric estimators with improved asymptotic performance. Notably, our estimators converge at the parametric rate at the boundary of the parameter space and also achieve a tractable null limiting distribution. As illustrations, we discuss how this framework can be applied to perform inference in nonparametric regression problems, and also to perform nonparametric assessment of stochastic dependence.

We introduce the local information cost (LIC), which quantifies the amount of information that nodes in a network need to learn when solving a graph problem. We show that the local information cost presents a natural lower bound on the communication complexity of distributed algorithms. For the synchronous CONGEST $KT_1$ model, where each node has initial knowledge of its neighbors' IDs, we prove that $\Omega(\frac{\text{LIC}_\gamma(P)}{\log\tau \log n})$ bits are required for solving a graph problem $P$ with a $\tau$-round algorithm that errs with probability at most $\gamma$. Our result is the first lower bound that yields a general trade-off between communication and time for graph problems in the CONGEST $KT_1$ model. We demonstrate how to apply the local information cost by deriving a lower bound on the communication complexity of computing routing tables for all-pairs-shortest-paths (APSP) routing, as well as for computing a spanner with multiplicative stretch $2t-1$ that consists of at most $O(n^{1+\frac{1}{t} + \epsilon})$ edges, where $\epsilon = O( {1}/{t^2} )$. More concretely, we derive the following lower bounds in the CONGEST model under the $KT_1$ assumption: For constructing routing tables, we show that any $O(\text{poly}(n))$-time algorithm has a communication complexity of $\Omega( {n^2}/{\log^2 n} )$ bits. Our main result is for constructing graph spanners: We show that any $O(\text{poly}(n))$-time algorithm must send at least $\tilde\Omega(\tfrac{1}{t^2} n^{1+{1}/{2t}})$ bits. Previously, only a trivial lower bound of $\tilde \Omega(n)$ bits was known for these problems.

Privacy is a central challenge for systems that learn from sensitive data sets, especially when a system's outputs must be continuously updated to reflect changing data. We consider the achievable error for the differentially private continual release of a basic statistic -- the number of distinct items -- in a stream where items may be both inserted and deleted (the turnstile model). With only insertions, existing algorithms have additive error just polylogarithmic in the length of the stream $T$. We uncover a much richer landscape in the turnstile model, even without considering memory restrictions. We show that any differentially private mechanism that handles insertions and deletions has worst-case additive error at least $T^{1/4}$ even under a relatively weak, event-level privacy definition. Then, we identify a property of the input stream, its maximum flippancy, that is low for natural data streams and for which one can give tight parameterized error guarantees. Specifically, the maximum flippancy is the largest number of times the count of a single item changes from a positive number to zero over the course of the stream. We present an item-level differentially private mechanism that, for all turnstile streams with maximum flippancy $w$, continually outputs the number of distinct elements with an $O(\sqrt{w} \cdot \mathsf{poly}\log T)$ additive error, without requiring prior knowledge of $w$. This is the best achievable error bound that depends only on $w$, for a large range of values of $w$. When $w$ is small, our mechanism provides similar error guarantees to the polylogarithmic in $T$ guarantees in the insertion-only setting, bypassing the hardness in the turnstile model.

Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we consider a MNAR model that generalizes several prior popular MNAR models in two ways: first, it is less restrictive in terms of statistical independence assumptions imposed on the underlying joint data distribution, and second, it allows for all variables in the observed sample to have missing values. This MNAR model corresponds to a so-called criss-cross structure considered in the literature on graphical models of missing data that prevents nonparametric identification of the entire missing data model. Nonetheless, part of the complete-data distribution remains nonparametrically identifiable. By exploiting this fact and considering a rich class of exponential family distributions, we establish sufficient conditions for identification of the complete-data distribution as well as the entire missingness mechanism. We then propose methods for testing the independence restrictions encoded in such models using odds ratio as our parameter of interest. We adopt two semiparametric approaches for estimating the odds ratio parameter and establish the corresponding asymptotic theories: one involves maximizing a conditional likelihood with order statistics and the other uses estimating equations. The utility of our methods is illustrated via simulation studies.

This paper presents a personalized graph federated learning (PGFL) framework in which distributedly connected servers and their respective edge devices collaboratively learn device or cluster-specific models while maintaining the privacy of every individual device. The proposed approach exploits similarities among different models to provide a more relevant experience for each device, even in situations with diverse data distributions and disproportionate datasets. Furthermore, to ensure a secure and efficient approach to collaborative personalized learning, we study a variant of the PGFL implementation that utilizes differential privacy, specifically zero-concentrated differential privacy, where a noise sequence perturbs model exchanges. Our mathematical analysis shows that the proposed privacy-preserving PGFL algorithm converges to the optimal cluster-specific solution for each cluster in linear time. It also shows that exploiting similarities among clusters leads to an alternative output whose distance to the original solution is bounded, and that this bound can be adjusted by modifying the algorithm's hyperparameters. Further, our analysis shows that the algorithm ensures local differential privacy for all clients in terms of zero-concentrated differential privacy. Finally, the performance of the proposed PGFL algorithm is examined by performing numerical experiments in the context of regression and classification using synthetic data and the MNIST dataset.

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting $\textit{one-step posterior}$ to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.

In this paper, we present a notion of differential privacy (DP) for data that comes from different classes. Here, the class-membership is private information that needs to be protected. The proposed method is an output perturbation mechanism that adds noise to the release of query response such that the analyst is unable to infer the underlying class-label. The proposed DP method is capable of not only protecting the privacy of class-based data but also meets quality metrics of accuracy and is computationally efficient and practical. We illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method empirically while outperforming the baseline additive Gaussian noise mechanism. We also examine a real-world application and apply the proposed DP method to the autoregression and moving average (ARMA) forecasting method, protecting the privacy of the underlying data source. Case studies on the real-world advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) measurements of household power consumption validate the excellent performance of the proposed DP method while also satisfying the accuracy of forecasted power consumption measurements.

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.