Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we consider a MNAR model that generalizes several prior popular MNAR models in two ways: first, it is less restrictive in terms of statistical independence assumptions imposed on the underlying joint data distribution, and second, it allows for all variables in the observed sample to have missing values. This MNAR model corresponds to a so-called criss-cross structure considered in the literature on graphical models of missing data that prevents nonparametric identification of the entire missing data model. Nonetheless, part of the complete-data distribution remains nonparametrically identifiable. By exploiting this fact and considering a rich class of exponential family distributions, we establish sufficient conditions for identification of the complete-data distribution as well as the entire missingness mechanism. We then propose methods for testing the independence restrictions encoded in such models using odds ratio as our parameter of interest. We adopt two semiparametric approaches for estimating the odds ratio parameter and establish the corresponding asymptotic theories: one involves maximizing a conditional likelihood with order statistics and the other uses estimating equations. The utility of our methods is illustrated via simulation studies.
Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been measured. This paper introduces a robust sensitivity analysis for IPW that estimates the range of treatment effects compatible with a given amount of unobserved confounding. The estimated range converges to the narrowest possible interval (under the given assumptions) that must contain the true treatment effect. Our proposal is a refinement of the influential sensitivity analysis by Zhao, Small, and Bhattacharya (2019), which we show gives bounds that are too wide even asymptotically. This analysis is based on new partial identification results for Tan (2006)'s marginal sensitivity model.
Predictive variability due to data ambiguities has typically been addressed via construction of dedicated models with built-in probabilistic capabilities that are trained to predict uncertainty estimates as variables of interest. These approaches require distinct architectural components and training mechanisms, may include restrictive assumptions and exhibit overconfidence, i.e., high confidence in imprecise predictions. In this work, we propose a post-hoc sampling strategy for estimating predictive uncertainty accounting for data ambiguity. The method can generate different plausible outputs for a given input and does not assume parametric forms of predictive distributions. It is architecture agnostic and can be applied to any feed-forward deterministic network without changes to the architecture or training procedure. Experiments on regression tasks on imaging and non-imaging input data show the method's ability to generate diverse and multi-modal predictive distributions, and a desirable correlation of the estimated uncertainty with the prediction error.
The diffusion model is capable of generating high-quality data through a probabilistic approach. However, it suffers from the drawback of slow generation speed due to the requirement of a large number of time steps. To address this limitation, recent models such as denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIM) focus on generating samples without directly modeling the probability distribution, while models like denoising diffusion generative adversarial networks (GAN) combine diffusion processes with GANs. In the field of speech synthesis, a recent diffusion speech synthesis model called DiffGAN-TTS, utilizing the structure of GANs, has been introduced and demonstrates superior performance in both speech quality and generation speed. In this paper, to further enhance the performance of DiffGAN-TTS, we propose a speech synthesis model with two discriminators: a diffusion discriminator for learning the distribution of the reverse process and a spectrogram discriminator for learning the distribution of the generated data. Objective metrics such as structural similarity index measure (SSIM), mel-cepstral distortion (MCD), F0 root mean squared error (F0 RMSE), short-time objective intelligibility (STOI), perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ), as well as subjective metrics like mean opinion score (MOS), are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The evaluation results show that the proposed model outperforms recent state-of-the-art models such as FastSpeech2 and DiffGAN-TTS in various metrics. Our implementation and audio samples are located on GitHub.
Automatic defect detection for 3D printing processes, which shares many characteristics with change detection problems, is a vital step for quality control of 3D printed products. However, there are some critical challenges in the current state of practice. First, existing methods for computer vision-based process monitoring typically work well only under specific camera viewpoints and lighting situations, requiring expensive pre-processing, alignment, and camera setups. Second, many defect detection techniques are specific to pre-defined defect patterns and/or print schematics. In this work, we approach the defect detection problem using a novel Semi-Siamese deep learning model that directly compares a reference schematic of the desired print and a camera image of the achieved print. The model then solves an image segmentation problem, precisely identifying the locations of defects of different types with respect to the reference schematic. Our model is designed to enable comparison of heterogeneous images from different domains while being robust against perturbations in the imaging setup such as different camera angles and illumination. Crucially, we show that our simple architecture, which is easy to pre-train for enhanced performance on new datasets, outperforms more complex state-of-the-art approaches based on generative adversarial networks and transformers. Using our model, defect localization predictions can be made in less than half a second per layer using a standard MacBook Pro while achieving an F1-score of more than 0.9, demonstrating the efficacy of using our method for in-situ defect detection in 3D printing.
Driving scene understanding is to obtain comprehensive scene information through the sensor data and provide a basis for downstream tasks, which is indispensable for the safety of self-driving vehicles. Specific perception tasks, such as object detection and scene graph generation, are commonly used. However, the results of these tasks are only equivalent to the characterization of sampling from high-dimensional scene features, which are not sufficient to represent the scenario. In addition, the goal of perception tasks is inconsistent with human driving that just focuses on what may affect the ego-trajectory. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end Interpretable Implicit Driving Scene Understanding (II-DSU) model to extract implicit high-dimensional scene features as scene understanding results guided by a planning module and to validate the plausibility of scene understanding using auxiliary perception tasks for visualization. Experimental results on CARLA benchmarks show that our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art and is able to obtain scene features that embody richer scene information relevant to driving, enabling superior performance of the downstream planning.
Motivated by the increasing availability of data of functional nature, we develop a general probabilistic and statistical framework for extremes of regularly varying random elements $X$ in $L^2[0,1]$. We place ourselves in a Peaks-Over-Threshold framework where a functional extreme is defined as an observation $X$ whose $L^2$-norm $\|X\|$ is comparatively large. Our goal is to propose a dimension reduction framework resulting into finite dimensional projections for such extreme observations. Our contribution is double. First, we investigate the notion of Regular Variation for random quantities valued in a general separable Hilbert space, for which we propose a novel concrete characterization involving solely stochastic convergence of real-valued random variables. Second, we propose a notion of functional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) accounting for the principal `directions' of functional extremes. We investigate the statistical properties of the empirical covariance operator of the angular component of extreme functions, by upper-bounding the Hilbert-Schmidt norm of the estimation error for finite sample sizes. Numerical experiments with simulated and real data illustrate this work.
Complex scenario of ultrasound image, in which adjacent tissues (i.e., background) share similar intensity with and even contain richer texture patterns than lesion region (i.e., foreground), brings a unique challenge for accurate lesion segmentation. This work presents a decomposition-coupling network, called DC-Net, to deal with this challenge in a (foreground-background) saliency map disentanglement-fusion manner. The DC-Net consists of decomposition and coupling subnets, and the former preliminarily disentangles original image into foreground and background saliency maps, followed by the latter for accurate segmentation under the assistance of saliency prior fusion. The coupling subnet involves three aspects of fusion strategies, including: 1) regional feature aggregation (via differentiable context pooling operator in the encoder) to adaptively preserve local contextual details with the larger receptive field during dimension reduction; 2) relation-aware representation fusion (via cross-correlation fusion module in the decoder) to efficiently fuse low-level visual characteristics and high-level semantic features during resolution restoration; 3) dependency-aware prior incorporation (via coupler) to reinforce foreground-salient representation with the complementary information derived from background representation. Furthermore, a harmonic loss function is introduced to encourage the network to focus more attention on low-confidence and hard samples. The proposed method is evaluated on two ultrasound lesion segmentation tasks, which demonstrates the remarkable performance improvement over existing state-of-the-art methods.
Energy optimization leveraging artificially intelligent algorithms has been proven effective. However, when buildings are commissioned, there is no historical data that could be used to train these algorithms. On-line Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms have shown significant promise, but their deployment carries a significant risk, because as the RL agent initially explores its action space it could cause significant discomfort to the building residents. In this paper we present ReLBOT - a new technique that uses transfer learning in conjunction with deep RL to transfer knowledge from an existing, optimized and instrumented building, to the newly commissioning smart building, to reduce the adverse impact of the reinforcement learning agent's warm-up period. We demonstrate improvements of up to 6.2 times in the duration, and up to 132 times in prediction variance, for the reinforcement learning agent's warm-up period.
We present SEIF, a methodology that combines static analysis with symbolic execution to verify and explicate information flow paths in a hardware design. SEIF begins with a statically built model of the information flow through a design and uses guided symbolic execution to recognize and eliminate non-flows with high precision or to find corresponding paths through the design state for true flows. We evaluate SEIF on two open-source CPUs, an AES core, and the AKER access control module. SEIF can exhaustively explore 10-12 clock cycles deep in 4-6 seconds on average, and can automatically account for 86-90% of the paths in the statically built model. Additionally, SEIF can be used to find multiple violating paths for security properties, providing a new angle for security verification.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.