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Benkeser et al. demonstrate how adjustment for baseline covariates in randomized trials can meaningfully improve precision for a variety of outcome types. Their findings build on a long history, starting in 1932 with R.A. Fisher and including more recent endorsements by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. Here, we address an important practical consideration: *how* to select the adjustment approach -- which variables and in which form -- to maximize precision, while maintaining Type-I error control. Balzer et al. previously proposed *Adaptive Prespecification* within TMLE to flexibly and automatically select, from a prespecified set, the approach that maximizes empirical efficiency in small trials (N$<$40). To avoid overfitting with few randomized units, selection was previously limited to working generalized linear models, adjusting for a single covariate. Now, we tailor Adaptive Prespecification to trials with many randomized units. Using $V$-fold cross-validation and the estimated influence curve-squared as the loss function, we select from an expanded set of candidates, including modern machine learning methods adjusting for multiple covariates. As assessed in simulations exploring a variety of data generating processes, our approach maintains Type-I error control (under the null) and offers substantial gains in precision -- equivalent to 20-43\% reductions in sample size for the same statistical power. When applied to real data from ACTG Study 175, we also see meaningful efficiency improvements overall and within subgroups.

We study the fundamental problem of sampling independent events, called subset sampling. Specifically, consider a set of $n$ events $S=\{x_1, \ldots, x_n\}$, where each event $x_i$ has an associated probability $p(x_i)$. The subset sampling problem aims to sample a subset $T \subseteq S$, such that every $x_i$ is independently included in $S$ with probability $p_i$. A naive solution is to flip a coin for each event, which takes $O(n)$ time. However, the specific goal is to develop data structures that allow drawing a sample in time proportional to the expected output size $\mu=\sum_{i=1}^n p(x_i)$, which can be significantly smaller than $n$ in many applications. The subset sampling problem serves as an important building block in many tasks and has been the subject of various research for more than a decade. However, most of the existing subset sampling approaches are conducted in a static setting, where the events or their associated probability in set $S$ is not allowed to be changed over time. These algorithms incur either large query time or update time in a dynamic setting despite the ubiquitous time-evolving events with changing probability in real life. Therefore, it is a pressing need, but still, an open problem, to design efficient dynamic subset sampling algorithms. In this paper, we propose ODSS, the first optimal dynamic subset sampling algorithm. The expected query time and update time of ODSS are both optimal, matching the lower bounds of the subset sampling problem. We present a nontrivial theoretical analysis to demonstrate the superiority of ODSS. We also conduct comprehensive experiments to empirically evaluate the performance of ODSS. Moreover, we apply ODSS to a concrete application: influence maximization. We empirically show that our ODSS can improve the complexities of existing influence maximization algorithms on large real-world evolving social networks.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of \texttt{SPCI} compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is a central task in scientific computing. Recently, neural network approximation of PDEs has received increasing attention due to its flexible meshless discretization and its potential for high-dimensional problems. One fundamental numerical difficulty is that random samples in the training set introduce statistical errors into the discretization of loss functional which may become the dominant error in the final approximation, and therefore overshadow the modeling capability of the neural network. In this work, we propose a new minmax formulation to optimize simultaneously the approximate solution, given by a neural network model, and the random samples in the training set, provided by a deep generative model. The key idea is to use a deep generative model to adjust random samples in the training set such that the residual induced by the approximate PDE solution can maintain a smooth profile when it is being minimized. Such an idea is achieved by implicitly embedding the Wasserstein distance between the residual-induced distribution and the uniform distribution into the loss, which is then minimized together with the residual. A nearly uniform residual profile means that its variance is small for any normalized weight function such that the Monte Carlo approximation error of the loss functional is reduced significantly for a certain sample size. The adversarial adaptive sampling (AAS) approach proposed in this work is the first attempt to formulate two essential components, minimizing the residual and seeking the optimal training set, into one minmax objective functional for the neural network approximation of PDEs.

We have developed a statistical inference method applicable to a broad range of generalized linear models (GLMs) in high-dimensional settings, where the number of unknown coefficients scales proportionally with the sample size. Although a pioneering method has been developed for logistic regression, which is a specific instance of GLMs, its direct applicability to other GLMs remains limited. In this study, we address this limitation by developing a new inference method designed for a class of GLMs with asymmetric link functions. More precisely, we first introduce a novel convex loss-based estimator and its associated system, which are essential components for the inference. We next devise a methodology for identifying parameters of the system required within the method. Consequently, we construct confidence intervals for GLMs in the high-dimensional regime. We prove that our proposal has desirable theoretical properties, such as strong consistency and exact coverage probability. Finally, we confirm the validity in experiments.

Much of the literature on optimal design of bandit algorithms is based on minimization of expected regret. It is well known that designs that are optimal over certain exponential families can achieve expected regret that grows logarithmically in the number of arm plays, at a rate governed by the Lai-Robbins lower bound. In this paper, we show that when one uses such optimized designs, the regret distribution of the associated algorithms necessarily has a very heavy tail, specifically, that of a truncated Cauchy distribution. Furthermore, for $p>1$, the $p$'th moment of the regret distribution grows much faster than poly-logarithmically, in particular as a power of the total number of arm plays. We show that optimized UCB bandit designs are also fragile in an additional sense, namely when the problem is even slightly mis-specified, the regret can grow much faster than the conventional theory suggests. Our arguments are based on standard change-of-measure ideas, and indicate that the most likely way that regret becomes larger than expected is when the optimal arm returns below-average rewards in the first few arm plays, thereby causing the algorithm to believe that the arm is sub-optimal. To alleviate the fragility issues exposed, we show that UCB algorithms can be modified so as to ensure a desired degree of robustness to mis-specification. In doing so, we also provide a sharp trade-off between the amount of UCB exploration and the tail exponent of the resulting regret distribution.

It is well known that Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with squared loss may attain minimax suboptimal error rates (Birg\'e and Massart, 1993). The key message of this paper is that, under mild assumptions, the suboptimality of ERM must be due to large bias rather than variance. More precisely, in the bias-variance decomposition of the squared error of the ERM, the variance term necessarily enjoys the minimax rate. In the case of fixed design, we provide an elementary proof of this fact using the probabilistic method. Then, we prove this result for various models in the random design setting. In addition, we provide a simple proof of Chatterjee's admissibility theorem (Chatterjee, 2014, Theorem 1.4), which states that ERM cannot be ruled out as an optimal method, in the fixed design setting, and extend this result to the random design setting. We also show that our estimates imply stability of ERM, complementing the main result of Caponnetto and Rakhlin (2006) for non-Donsker classes. Finally, we show that for non-Donsker classes, there are functions close to the ERM, yet far from being almost-minimizers of the empirical loss, highlighting the somewhat irregular nature of the loss landscape.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

We investigate gradient descent training of wide neural networks and the corresponding implicit bias in function space. For univariate regression, we show that the solution of training a width-$n$ shallow ReLU network is within $n^{- 1/2}$ of the function which fits the training data and whose difference from the initial function has the smallest 2-norm of the second derivative weighted by a curvature penalty that depends on the probability distribution that is used to initialize the network parameters. We compute the curvature penalty function explicitly for various common initialization procedures. For instance, asymmetric initialization with a uniform distribution yields a constant curvature penalty, and thence the solution function is the natural cubic spline interpolation of the training data. \hj{For stochastic gradient descent we obtain the same implicit bias result.} We obtain a similar result for different activation functions. For multivariate regression we show an analogous result, whereby the second derivative is replaced by the Radon transform of a fractional Laplacian. For initialization schemes that yield a constant penalty function, the solutions are polyharmonic splines. Moreover, we show that the training trajectories are captured by trajectories of smoothing splines with decreasing regularization strength.

We study the problem of multi-agent coordination in unpredictable and partially observable environments, that is, environments whose future evolution is unknown a priori and that can only be partially observed. We are motivated by the future of autonomy that involves multiple robots coordinating actions in dynamic, unstructured, and partially observable environments to complete complex tasks such as target tracking, environmental mapping, and area monitoring. Such tasks are often modeled as submodular maximization coordination problems due to the information overlap among the robots. We introduce the first submodular coordination algorithm with bandit feedback and bounded tracking regret -- bandit feedback is the robots' ability to compute in hindsight only the effect of their chosen actions, instead of all the alternative actions that they could have chosen instead, due to the partial observability; and tracking regret is the algorithm's suboptimality with respect to the optimal time-varying actions that fully know the future a priori. The bound gracefully degrades with the environments' capacity to change adversarially, quantifying how often the robots should re-select actions to learn to coordinate as if they fully knew the future a priori. The algorithm generalizes the seminal Sequential Greedy algorithm by Fisher et al. to the bandit setting, by leveraging submodularity and algorithms for the problem of tracking the best action. We validate our algorithm in simulated scenarios of multi-target tracking.