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Learning agent behaviors from observational data has shown to improve our understanding of their decision-making processes, advancing our ability to explain their interactions with the environment and other agents. While multiple learning techniques have been proposed in the literature, there is one particular setting that has not been explored yet: multi agent systems where agent identities remain anonymous. For instance, in financial markets labeled data that identifies market participant strategies is typically proprietary, and only the anonymous state-action pairs that result from the interaction of multiple market participants are publicly available. As a result, sequences of agent actions are not observable, restricting the applicability of existing work. In this paper, we propose a Policy Clustering algorithm, called K-SHAP, that learns to group anonymous state-action pairs according to the agent policies. We frame the problem as an Imitation Learning (IL) task, and we learn a world-policy able to mimic all the agent behaviors upon different environmental states. We leverage the world-policy to explain each anonymous observation through an additive feature attribution method called SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). Finally, by clustering the explanations we show that we are able to identify different agent policies and group observations accordingly. We evaluate our approach on simulated synthetic market data and a real-world financial dataset. We show that our proposal significantly and consistently outperforms the existing methods, identifying different agent strategies.

Due to the growing complexity of modern data centers, failures are not uncommon any more. Therefore, fault tolerance mechanisms play a vital role in fulfilling the availability requirements. Multiple availability models have been proposed to assess compute systems, among which Bayesian network models have gained popularity in industry and research due to its powerful modeling formalism. In particular, this work focuses on assessing the availability of redundant and replicated cloud computing services with Bayesian networks. So far, research on availability has only focused on modeling either infrastructure or communication failures in Bayesian networks, but have not considered both simultaneously. This work addresses practical modeling challenges of assessing the availability of large-scale redundant and replicated services with Bayesian networks, including cascading and common-cause failures from the surrounding infrastructure and communication network. In order to ease the modeling task, this paper introduces a high-level modeling formalism to build such a Bayesian network automatically. Performance evaluations demonstrate the feasibility of the presented Bayesian network approach to assess the availability of large-scale redundant and replicated services. This model is not only applicable in the domain of cloud computing it can also be applied for general cases of local and geo-distributed systems.

This paper investigates a hitherto unaddressed aspect of best arm identification (BAI) in stochastic multi-armed bandits in the fixed-confidence setting. Two key metrics for assessing bandit algorithms are computational efficiency and performance optimality (e.g., in sample complexity). In stochastic BAI literature, there have been advances in designing algorithms to achieve optimal performance, but they are generally computationally expensive to implement (e.g., optimization-based methods). There also exist approaches with high computational efficiency, but they have provable gaps to the optimal performance (e.g., the $\beta$-optimal approaches in top-two methods). This paper introduces a framework and an algorithm for BAI that achieves optimal performance with a computationally efficient set of decision rules. The central process that facilitates this is a routine for sequentially estimating the optimal allocations up to sufficient fidelity. Specifically, these estimates are accurate enough for identifying the best arm (hence, achieving optimality) but not overly accurate to an unnecessary extent that creates excessive computational complexity (hence, maintaining efficiency). Furthermore, the existing relevant literature focuses on the family of exponential distributions. This paper considers a more general setting of any arbitrary family of distributions parameterized by their mean values (under mild regularity conditions). The optimality is established analytically, and numerical evaluations are provided to assess the analytical guarantees and compare the performance with those of the existing ones.

The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.

Deploying Large language models (LLMs) can pose hazards from harmful outputs such as toxic or dishonest speech. Prior work has introduced tools that elicit harmful outputs in order to identify and mitigate these risks. While this is a valuable step toward securing language models, these approaches typically rely on a pre-existing classifier for undesired outputs. This limits their application to situations where the type of harmful behavior is known with precision beforehand. However, this skips a central challenge of red teaming: developing a contextual understanding of the behaviors that a model can exhibit. Furthermore, when such a classifier already exists, red teaming has limited marginal value because the classifier could simply be used to filter training data or model outputs. In this work, we consider red teaming under the assumption that the adversary is working from a high-level, abstract specification of undesired behavior. The red team is expected to refine/extend this specification and identify methods to elicit this behavior from the model. Our red teaming framework consists of three steps: 1) Exploring the model's behavior in the desired context; 2) Establishing a measurement of undesired behavior (e.g., a classifier trained to reflect human evaluations); and 3) Exploiting the model's flaws using this measure and an established red teaming methodology. We apply this approach to red team GPT-2 and GPT-3 models to systematically discover classes of prompts that elicit toxic and dishonest statements. In doing so, we also construct and release the CommonClaim dataset of 20,000 statements that have been labeled by human subjects as common-knowledge-true, common-knowledge-false, or neither. Code is available at //github.com/thestephencasper/explore_establish_exploit_llms. CommonClaim is available at //github.com/Algorithmic-Alignment-Lab/CommonClaim.

We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.

Recent years have witnessed significant advances in technologies and services in modern network applications, including smart grid management, wireless communication, cybersecurity as well as multi-agent autonomous systems. Considering the heterogeneous nature of networked entities, emerging network applications call for game-theoretic models and learning-based approaches in order to create distributed network intelligence that responds to uncertainties and disruptions in a dynamic or an adversarial environment. This paper articulates the confluence of networks, games and learning, which establishes a theoretical underpinning for understanding multi-agent decision-making over networks. We provide an selective overview of game-theoretic learning algorithms within the framework of stochastic approximation theory, and associated applications in some representative contexts of modern network systems, such as the next generation wireless communication networks, the smart grid and distributed machine learning. In addition to existing research works on game-theoretic learning over networks, we highlight several new angles and research endeavors on learning in games that are related to recent developments in artificial intelligence. Some of the new angles extrapolate from our own research interests. The overall objective of the paper is to provide the reader a clear picture of the strengths and challenges of adopting game-theoretic learning methods within the context of network systems, and further to identify fruitful future research directions on both theoretical and applied studies.

Catastrophic forgetting refers to the tendency that a neural network "forgets" the previous learned knowledge upon learning new tasks. Prior methods have been focused on overcoming this problem on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), where the input samples like images lie in a grid domain, but have largely overlooked graph neural networks (GNNs) that handle non-grid data. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme dedicated to overcoming catastrophic forgetting problem and hence strengthen continual learning in GNNs. At the heart of our approach is a generic module, termed as topology-aware weight preserving~(TWP), applicable to arbitrary form of GNNs in a plug-and-play fashion. Unlike the main stream of CNN-based continual learning methods that rely on solely slowing down the updates of parameters important to the downstream task, TWP explicitly explores the local structures of the input graph, and attempts to stabilize the parameters playing pivotal roles in the topological aggregation. We evaluate TWP on different GNN backbones over several datasets, and demonstrate that it yields performances superior to the state of the art. Code is publicly available at \url{//github.com/hhliu79/TWP}.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.