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This paper considers the problem of supervised learning with linear methods when both features and labels can be corrupted, either in the form of heavy tailed data and/or corrupted rows. We introduce a combination of coordinate gradient descent as a learning algorithm together with robust estimators of the partial derivatives. This leads to robust statistical learning methods that have a numerical complexity nearly identical to non-robust ones based on empirical risk minimization. The main idea is simple: while robust learning with gradient descent requires the computational cost of robustly estimating the whole gradient to update all parameters, a parameter can be updated immediately using a robust estimator of a single partial derivative in coordinate gradient descent. We prove upper bounds on the generalization error of the algorithms derived from this idea, that control both the optimization and statistical errors with and without a strong convexity assumption of the risk. Finally, we propose an efficient implementation of this approach in a new python library called linlearn, and demonstrate through extensive numerical experiments that our approach introduces a new interesting compromise between robustness, statistical performance and numerical efficiency for this problem.

Motivated by the high-frequency data streams continuously generated, real-time learning is becoming increasingly important. These data streams should be processed sequentially with the property that the data stream may change over time. In this streaming setting, we propose techniques for minimizing convex objectives through unbiased estimates of their gradients, commonly referred to as stochastic approximation problems. Our methods rely on stochastic approximation algorithms because of their applicability and computational advantages. The reasoning includes iterate averaging that guarantees optimal statistical efficiency under classical conditions. Our non-asymptotic analysis shows accelerated convergence by selecting the learning rate according to the expected data streams. We show that the average estimate converges optimally and robustly for any data stream rate. In addition, noise reduction can be achieved by processing the data in a specific pattern, which is advantageous for large-scale machine learning problems. These theoretical results are illustrated for various data streams, showing the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

A central goal in designing clinical trials is to find the test that maximizes power (or equivalently minimizes required sample size) for finding a true research hypothesis subject to the constraint of type I error. When there is more than one test, such as in clinical trials with multiple endpoints, the issues of optimal design and optimal policies become more complex. In this paper we address the question of how such optimal tests should be defined and how they can be found. We review different notions of power and how they relate to study goals, and also consider the requirements of type I error control and the nature of the policies. This leads us to formulate the optimal policy problem as an explicit optimization problem with objective and constraints which describe its specific desiderata. We describe a complete solution for deriving optimal policies for two hypotheses, which have desired monotonicity properties, and are computationally simple. For some of the optimization formulations this yields optimal policies that are identical to existing policies, such as Hommel's procedure or the procedure of Bittman et al. (2009), while for others it yields completely novel and more powerful policies than existing ones. We demonstrate the nature of our novel policies and their improved power extensively in simulation and on the APEX study (Cohen et al., 2016).

One of the main features of interest in analysing the light curves of stars is the underlying periodic behaviour. The corresponding observations are a complex type of time series with unequally spaced time points and are sometimes accompanied by varying measures of accuracy. The main tools for analysing these type of data rely on the periodogram-like functions, constructed with a desired feature so that the peaks indicate the presence of a potential period. In this paper, we explore a particular periodogram for the irregularly observed time series data, similar to Thieler et. al. (2013). We identify the potential periods at the appropriate peaks and more importantly with a quantifiable uncertainty. Our approach is shown to easily generalise to non-parametric methods including a weighted Gaussian process regression periodogram. We also extend this approach to correlated background noise. The proposed method for period detection relies on a test based on quadratic forms with normally distributed components. We implement the saddlepoint approximation, as a faster and more accurate alternative to the simulation-based methods that are currently used. The power analysis of the testing methodology is reported together with applications using light curves from the Hunting Outbursting Young Stars citizen science project.

Neural networks are capable of learning powerful representations of data, but they are susceptible to overfitting due to the number of parameters. This is particularly challenging in the domain of time series classification, where datasets may contain fewer than 100 training examples. In this paper, we show that the simple methods of cutout, cutmix, mixup, and window warp improve the robustness and overall performance in a statistically significant way for convolutional, recurrent, and self-attention based architectures for time series classification. We evaluate these methods on 26 datasets from the University of East Anglia Multivariate Time Series Classification (UEA MTSC) archive and analyze how these methods perform on different types of time series data.. We show that the InceptionTime network with augmentation improves accuracy by 1% to 45% in 18 different datasets compared to without augmentation. We also show that augmentation improves accuracy for recurrent and self attention based architectures.

This paper presents DRE-CUSUM, an unsupervised density-ratio estimation (DRE) based approach to determine statistical changes in time-series data when no knowledge of the pre-and post-change distributions are available. The core idea behind the proposed approach is to split the time-series at an arbitrary point and estimate the ratio of densities of distribution (using a parametric model such as a neural network) before and after the split point. The DRE-CUSUM change detection statistic is then derived from the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the logarithm of the estimated density ratio. We present a theoretical justification as well as accuracy guarantees which show that the proposed statistic can reliably detect statistical changes, irrespective of the split point. While there have been prior works on using density ratio based methods for change detection, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first unsupervised change detection approach with a theoretical justification and accuracy guarantees. The simplicity of the proposed framework makes it readily applicable in various practical settings (including high-dimensional time-series data); we also discuss generalizations for online change detection. We experimentally show the superiority of DRE-CUSUM using both synthetic and real-world datasets over existing state-of-the-art unsupervised algorithms (such as Bayesian online change detection, its variants as well as several other heuristic methods).

Leveraging biased click data for optimizing learning to rank systems has been a popular approach in information retrieval. Because click data is often noisy and biased, a variety of methods have been proposed to construct unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) algorithms for the learning of unbiased ranking models. Among them, automatic unbiased learning to rank (AutoULTR) algorithms that jointly learn user bias models (i.e., propensity models) with unbiased rankers have received a lot of attention due to their superior performance and low deployment cost in practice. Despite their differences in theories and algorithm design, existing studies on ULTR usually use uni-variate ranking functions to score each document or result independently. On the other hand, recent advances in context-aware learning-to-rank models have shown that multivariate scoring functions, which read multiple documents together and predict their ranking scores jointly, are more powerful than uni-variate ranking functions in ranking tasks with human-annotated relevance labels. Whether such superior performance would hold in ULTR with noisy data, however, is mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigate existing multivariate scoring functions and AutoULTR algorithms in theory and prove that permutation invariance is a crucial factor that determines whether a context-aware learning-to-rank model could be applied to existing AutoULTR framework. Our experiments with synthetic clicks on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that AutoULTR models with permutation-invariant multivariate scoring functions significantly outperform those with uni-variate scoring functions and permutation-variant multivariate scoring functions.

The prevalence of networked sensors and actuators in many real-world systems such as smart buildings, factories, power plants, and data centers generate substantial amounts of multivariate time series data for these systems. The rich sensor data can be continuously monitored for intrusion events through anomaly detection. However, conventional threshold-based anomaly detection methods are inadequate due to the dynamic complexities of these systems, while supervised machine learning methods are unable to exploit the large amounts of data due to the lack of labeled data. On the other hand, current unsupervised machine learning approaches have not fully exploited the spatial-temporal correlation and other dependencies amongst the multiple variables (sensors/actuators) in the system for detecting anomalies. In this work, we propose an unsupervised multivariate anomaly detection method based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Instead of treating each data stream independently, our proposed MAD-GAN framework considers the entire variable set concurrently to capture the latent interactions amongst the variables. We also fully exploit both the generator and discriminator produced by the GAN, using a novel anomaly score called DR-score to detect anomalies by discrimination and reconstruction. We have tested our proposed MAD-GAN using two recent datasets collected from real-world CPS: the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) and the Water Distribution (WADI) datasets. Our experimental results showed that the proposed MAD-GAN is effective in reporting anomalies caused by various cyber-intrusions compared in these complex real-world systems.

This paper addresses the problem of head detection in crowded environments. Our detection is based entirely on the geometric consistency across cameras with overlapping fields of view, and no additional learning process is required. We propose a fully unsupervised method for inferring scene and camera geometry, in contrast to existing algorithms which require specific calibration procedures. Moreover, we avoid relying on the presence of body parts other than heads or on background subtraction, which have limited effectiveness under heavy clutter. We cast the head detection problem as a stereo MRF-based optimization of a dense pedestrian height map, and we introduce a constraint which aligns the height gradient according to the vertical vanishing point direction. We validate the method in an outdoor setting with varying pedestrian density levels. With only three views, our approach is able to detect simultaneously tens of heavily occluded pedestrians across a large, homogeneous area.

In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.