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Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples $(x, f(x))$ presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at //github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

In many real-world optimization problems, the objective function evaluation is subject to noise, and we cannot obtain the exact objective value. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs), a type of general-purpose randomized optimization algorithm, have been shown to be able to solve noisy optimization problems well. However, previous theoretical analyses of EAs mainly focused on noise-free optimization, which makes the theoretical understanding largely insufficient for the noisy case. Meanwhile, the few existing theoretical studies under noise often considered the one-bit noise model, which flips a randomly chosen bit of a solution before evaluation; while in many realistic applications, several bits of a solution can be changed simultaneously. In this paper, we study a natural extension of one-bit noise, the bit-wise noise model, which independently flips each bit of a solution with some probability. We analyze the running time of the (1+1)-EA solving OneMax and LeadingOnes under bit-wise noise for the first time, and derive the ranges of the noise level for polynomial and super-polynomial running time bounds. The analysis on LeadingOnes under bit-wise noise can be easily transferred to one-bit noise, and improves the previously known results. Since our analysis discloses that the (1+1)-EA can be efficient only under low noise levels, we also study whether the sampling strategy can bring robustness to noise. We prove that using sampling can significantly increase the largest noise level allowing a polynomial running time, that is, sampling is robust to noise.

In noisy evolutionary optimization, sampling is a common strategy to deal with noise. By the sampling strategy, the fitness of a solution is evaluated multiple times (called \emph{sample size}) independently, and its true fitness is then approximated by the average of these evaluations. Most previous studies on sampling are empirical, and the few theoretical studies mainly showed the effectiveness of sampling with a sufficiently large sample size. In this paper, we theoretically examine what strategies can work when sampling with any fixed sample size fails. By constructing a family of artificial noisy examples, we prove that sampling is always ineffective, while using parent or offspring populations can be helpful on some examples. We also construct an artificial noisy example to show that when using neither sampling nor populations is effective, a tailored adaptive sampling (i.e., sampling with an adaptive sample size) strategy can work. These findings may enhance our understanding of sampling to some extent, but future work is required to validate them in natural situations.

Choosing a suitable loss function is essential when learning by empirical risk minimisation. In many practical cases, the datasets used for training a classifier may contain incorrect labels, which prompts the interest for using loss functions that are inherently robust to label noise. In this paper, we study the Fisher-Rao loss function, which emerges from the Fisher-Rao distance in the statistical manifold of discrete distributions. We derive an upper bound for the performance degradation in the presence of label noise, and analyse the learning speed of this loss. Comparing with other commonly used losses, we argue that the Fisher-Rao loss provides a natural trade-off between robustness and training dynamics. Numerical experiments with synthetic and MNIST datasets illustrate this performance.

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising from the passage of time -- often occur gradually and have the additional structure of timestamp metadata. By leveraging timestamp metadata, models can potentially learn from trends in past distribution shifts and extrapolate into the future. While recent works have studied distribution shifts, temporal shifts remain underexplored. To address this gap, we curate Wild-Time, a benchmark of 5 datasets that reflect temporal distribution shifts arising in a variety of real-world applications, including patient prognosis and news classification. On these datasets, we systematically benchmark 13 prior approaches, including methods in domain generalization, continual learning, self-supervised learning, and ensemble learning. We use two evaluation strategies: evaluation with a fixed time split (Eval-Fix) and evaluation with a data stream (Eval-Stream). Eval-Fix, our primary evaluation strategy, aims to provide a simple evaluation protocol, while Eval-Stream is more realistic for certain real-world applications. Under both evaluation strategies, we observe an average performance drop of 20% from in-distribution to out-of-distribution data. Existing methods are unable to close this gap. Code is available at //wild-time.github.io/.

Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity $Y$, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by high-frequency finance, in this paper we investigate how proxies $\tilde Y$ for $Y$ - say volatility proxies - which are observed together with $Y$ can be utilized to improve forecast comparisons. We extend previous results on robustness of loss functions for the mean to general moments and ratios of moments, and show in terms of the variance of differences of losses that using proxies will increase the power in comparative forecast tests. These results apply both to testing conditional as well as unconditional dominance. Finally, we numerically illustrate the theoretical results, both for simulated high-frequency data as well as for high-frequency log returns of several cryptocurrencies.

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the parameter space or where even identifiability fails. For that, we propose a more general local approximation of the parameter space (at the true value) than previous studies. This estimation theory is comprehensive in that it can handle penalized estimation as well as quasi-maximum likelihood estimation under such non-regular models. Besides, our results can apply to the so-called non-ergodic statistics, where the Fisher information is random in the limit, including the regular experiment that is locally asymptotically mixed normal. In penalized estimation, depending on the boundary constraint, even the Bridge estimator with $q<1$ does not necessarily give selection consistency. Therefore, some sufficient condition for selection consistency is described, precisely evaluating the balance between the boundary constraint and the form of the penalty. Examples handled in the paper are: (i) ML estimation of the generalized inverse Gaussian distribution, (ii) quasi-ML estimation of the diffusion parameter in a non-ergodic It\^o process whose parameter space consists of positive semi-definite symmetric matrices, while the drift parameter is treated as nuisance and (iii) penalized ML estimation of variance components of random effects in linear mixed models.

The bivariate Gaussian distribution has been the basis of probability and statistics for many years. Nonetheless, this distribution faces some problems, mainly due to the fact that many real-world phenomena generate data that follow asymmetric distributions. Bidimensional log-symmetric models have attractive properties and can be considered as good alternatives to solve this problem. In this paper, we discuss bivariate log-symmetric distributions and their characterizations. We derive several statistical properties and obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of the parameter estimation method. A real data set is finally analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.

We propose a novel $\ell_1+\ell_2$-penalty, which we refer to as the Generalized Elastic Net, for regression problems where the feature vectors are indexed by vertices of a given graph and the true signal is believed to be smooth or piecewise constant with respect to this graph. Under the assumption of correlated Gaussian design, we derive upper bounds for the prediction and estimation errors, which are graph-dependent and consist of a parametric rate for the unpenalized portion of the regression vector and another term that depends on our network alignment assumption. We also provide a coordinate descent procedure based on the Lagrange dual objective to compute this estimator for large-scale problems. Finally, we compare our proposed estimator to existing regularized estimators on a number of real and synthetic datasets and discuss its potential limitations.

Class Incremental Learning (CIL) aims at learning a multi-class classifier in a phase-by-phase manner, in which only data of a subset of the classes are provided at each phase. Previous works mainly focus on mitigating forgetting in phases after the initial one. However, we find that improving CIL at its initial phase is also a promising direction. Specifically, we experimentally show that directly encouraging CIL Learner at the initial phase to output similar representations as the model jointly trained on all classes can greatly boost the CIL performance. Motivated by this, we study the difference between a na\"ively-trained initial-phase model and the oracle model. Specifically, since one major difference between these two models is the number of training classes, we investigate how such difference affects the model representations. We find that, with fewer training classes, the data representations of each class lie in a long and narrow region; with more training classes, the representations of each class scatter more uniformly. Inspired by this observation, we propose Class-wise Decorrelation (CwD) that effectively regularizes representations of each class to scatter more uniformly, thus mimicking the model jointly trained with all classes (i.e., the oracle model). Our CwD is simple to implement and easy to plug into existing methods. Extensive experiments on various benchmark datasets show that CwD consistently and significantly improves the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods by around 1\% to 3\%. Code will be released.