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Neural network models have achieved high performance on a wide variety of complex tasks, but the algorithms that they implement are notoriously difficult to interpret. In order to understand these algorithms, it is often necessary to hypothesize intermediate variables involved in the network's computation. For example, does a language model depend on particular syntactic properties when generating a sentence? However, existing analysis tools make it difficult to test hypotheses of this type. We propose a new analysis technique -- circuit probing -- that automatically uncovers low-level circuits that compute hypothesized intermediate variables. This enables causal analysis through targeted ablation at the level of model parameters. We apply this method to models trained on simple arithmetic tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness at (1) deciphering the algorithms that models have learned, (2) revealing modular structure within a model, and (3) tracking the development of circuits over training. We compare circuit probing to other methods across these three experiments, and find it on par or more effective than existing analysis methods. Finally, we demonstrate circuit probing on a real-world use case, uncovering circuits that are responsible for subject-verb agreement and reflexive anaphora in GPT2-Small and Medium.

Continuous diffusion models are commonly acknowledged to display a deterministic probability flow, whereas discrete diffusion models do not. In this paper, we aim to establish the fundamental theory for the probability flow of discrete diffusion models. Specifically, we first prove that the continuous probability flow is the Monge optimal transport map under certain conditions, and also present an equivalent evidence for discrete cases. In view of these findings, we are then able to define the discrete probability flow in line with the principles of optimal transport. Finally, drawing upon our newly established definitions, we propose a novel sampling method that surpasses previous discrete diffusion models in its ability to generate more certain outcomes. Extensive experiments on the synthetic toy dataset and the CIFAR-10 dataset have validated the effectiveness of our proposed discrete probability flow. Code is released at: //github.com/PangzeCheung/Discrete-Probability-Flow.

Detecting weak, systematic distribution shifts and quantitatively modeling individual, heterogeneous responses to policies or incentives have found increasing empirical applications in social and economic sciences. Given two probability distributions $P$ (null) and $Q$ (alternative), we study the problem of detecting weak distribution shift deviating from the null $P$ toward the alternative $Q$, where the level of deviation vanishes as a function of $n$, the sample size. We propose a model for weak distribution shifts via displacement interpolation between $P$ and $Q$, drawing from the optimal transport theory. We study a hypothesis testing procedure based on the Wasserstein distance, derive sharp conditions under which detection is possible, and provide the exact characterization of the asymptotic Type I and Type II errors at the detection boundary using empirical processes. We demonstrate how the proposed testing procedure works in modeling and detecting weak distribution shifts in real data sets using two empirical examples: distribution shifts in consumer spending after COVID-19, and heterogeneity in the published p-values of statistical tests in journals across different disciplines.

We analyze how symmetries can be used to compress structures (also known as interpretations) onto a smaller domain without loss of information. This analysis suggests the possibility to solve satisfiability problems in the compressed domain for better performance. Thus, we propose a 2-step novel method: (i) the sentence to be satisfied is automatically translated into an equisatisfiable sentence over a ``lifted'' vocabulary that allows domain compression; (ii) satisfiability of the lifted sentence is checked by growing the (initially unknown) compressed domain until a satisfying structure is found. The key issue is to ensure that this satisfying structure can always be expanded into an uncompressed structure that satisfies the original sentence to be satisfied. We present an adequate translation for sentences in typed first-order logic extended with aggregates. Our experimental evaluation shows large speedups for generative configuration problems. The method also has applications in the verification of software operating on complex data structures. Further refinements of the translation are left for future work.

Wasserstein distributionally robust estimators have emerged as powerful models for prediction and decision-making under uncertainty. These estimators provide attractive generalization guarantees: the robust objective obtained from the training distribution is an exact upper bound on the true risk with high probability. However, existing guarantees either suffer from the curse of dimensionality, are restricted to specific settings, or lead to spurious error terms. In this paper, we show that these generalization guarantees actually hold on general classes of models, do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and can even cover distribution shifts at testing. We also prove that these results carry over to the newly-introduced regularized versions of Wasserstein distributionally robust problems.

Time series discords are a useful primitive for time series anomaly detection, and the matrix profile is capable of capturing discord effectively. There exist many research efforts to improve the scalability of discord discovery with respect to the length of time series. However, there is surprisingly little work focused on reducing the time complexity of matrix profile computation associated with dimensionality of a multidimensional time series. In this work, we propose a sketch for discord mining among multi-dimensional time series. After an initial pre-processing of the sketch as fast as reading the data, the discord mining has runtime independent of the dimensionality of the original data. On several real world examples from water treatment and transportation, the proposed algorithm improves the throughput by at least an order of magnitude (50X) and only has minimal impact on the quality of the approximated solution. Additionally, the proposed method can handle the dynamic addition or deletion of dimensions inconsequential overhead. This allows a data analyst to consider "what-if" scenarios in real time while exploring the data.

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense that the same model will yield contradictory posteriors on independent data sets from the true distribution. To define a criterion for reproducible uncertainty quantification under misspecification, we consider the probability that two confidence sets constructed from independent data sets have nonempty overlap, and we establish a lower bound on this overlap probability that holds for any valid confidence sets. We prove that credible sets from the standard posterior can strongly violate this bound, particularly in high-dimensional settings (i.e., with dimension increasing with sample size), indicating that it is not internally coherent under misspecification. To improve reproducibility in an easy-to-use and widely applicable way, we propose to apply bagging to the Bayesian posterior ("BayesBag"'); that is, to use the average of posterior distributions conditioned on bootstrapped datasets. We motivate BayesBag from first principles based on Jeffrey conditionalization and show that the bagged posterior typically satisfies the overlap lower bound. Further, we prove a Bernstein--Von Mises theorem for the bagged posterior, establishing its asymptotic normal distribution. We demonstrate the benefits of BayesBag via simulation experiments and an application to crime rate prediction.

Creating accurate and geologically realistic reservoir facies based on limited measurements is crucial for field development and reservoir management, especially in the oil and gas sector. Traditional two-point geostatistics, while foundational, often struggle to capture complex geological patterns. Multi-point statistics offers more flexibility, but comes with its own challenges. With the rise of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and their success in various fields, there has been a shift towards using them for facies generation. However, recent advances in the computer vision domain have shown the superiority of diffusion models over GANs. Motivated by this, a novel Latent Diffusion Model is proposed, which is specifically designed for conditional generation of reservoir facies. The proposed model produces high-fidelity facies realizations that rigorously preserve conditioning data. It significantly outperforms a GAN-based alternative.

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.