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While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees for their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of finite-sample analysis and guarantees for their prediction set sizes. To address this shortfall, we theoretically quantify the expected size of the prediction set under the split conformal prediction framework. As this precise formulation cannot usually be calculated directly, we further derive point estimates and high probability intervals that can be easily computed, providing a practical method for characterizing the expected prediction set size across different possible realizations of the test and calibration data. Additionally, we corroborate the efficacy of our results with experiments on real-world datasets, for both regression and classification problems.

We introduce a transformation framework that can be utilized to develop online algorithms with low $\epsilon$-approximate regret in the random-order model from offline approximation algorithms. We first give a general reduction theorem that transforms an offline approximation algorithm with low average sensitivity to an online algorithm with low $\epsilon$-approximate regret. We then demonstrate that offline approximation algorithms can be transformed into a low-sensitivity version using a coreset construction method. To showcase the versatility of our approach, we apply it to various problems, including online $(k,z)$-clustering, online matrix approximation, and online regression, and successfully achieve polylogarithmic $\epsilon$-approximate regret for each problem. Moreover, we show that in all three cases, our algorithm also enjoys low inconsistency, which may be desired in some online applications.

Gaussian process (GP) based Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions efficiently. The practical performance and theoretical guarantees associated with this approach depend on having the correct GP hyperparameter values, which are usually unknown in advance and need to be estimated from the observed data. However, in practice, these estimations could be incorrect due to biased data sampling strategies commonly used in BO. This can lead to degraded performance and break the sub-linear global convergence guarantee of BO. To address this issue, we propose a new BO method that can sub-linearly converge to the global optimum of the objective function even when the true GP hyperparameters are unknown in advance and need to be estimated from the observed data. Our method uses a multi-armed bandit technique (EXP3) to add random data points to the BO process, and employs a novel training loss function for the GP hyperparameter estimation process that ensures unbiased estimation from the observed data. We further provide theoretical analysis of our proposed method. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that our method outperforms existing approaches on various synthetic and real-world problems.

Our goal is to develop an efficient contact detection algorithm for large-scale GPU-based simulation of non-convex objects. Current GPU-based simulators such as IsaacGym and Brax must trade-off speed with fidelity, generality, or both when simulating non-convex objects. Their main issue lies in contact detection (CD): existing CD algorithms, such as Gilbert-Johnson-Keerthi (GJK), must trade off their computational speed with accuracy which becomes expensive as the number of collisions among non-convex objects increases. We propose a data-driven approach for CD, whose accuracy depends only on the quality and quantity of offline dataset rather than online computation time. Unlike GJK, our method inherently has a uniform computational flow, which facilitates efficient GPU usage based on advanced compilers such as XLA (Accelerated Linear Algebra). Further, we offer a data-efficient solution by learning the patterns of colliding local crop object shapes, rather than global object shapes which are harder to learn. We demonstrate our approach improves the efficiency of existing CD methods by a factor of 5-10 for non-convex objects with comparable accuracy. Using the previous work on contact resolution for a neural-network-based contact detector, we integrate our CD algorithm into the open-source GPU-based simulator, Brax, and show that we can improve the efficiency over IsaacGym and generality over standard Brax. We highly recommend the videos of our simulator included in the supplementary materials.

We study collaborative normal mean estimation, where $m$ strategic agents collect i.i.d samples from a normal distribution $\mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)$ at a cost. They all wish to estimate the mean $\mu$. By sharing data with each other, agents can obtain better estimates while keeping the cost of data collection small. To facilitate this collaboration, we wish to design mechanisms that encourage agents to collect a sufficient amount of data and share it truthfully, so that they are all better off than working alone. In naive mechanisms, such as simply pooling and sharing all the data, an individual agent might find it beneficial to under-collect and/or fabricate data, which can lead to poor social outcomes. We design a novel mechanism that overcomes these challenges via two key techniques: first, when sharing the others' data with an agent, the mechanism corrupts this dataset proportional to how much the data reported by the agent differs from the others; second, we design minimax optimal estimators for the corrupted dataset. Our mechanism, which is incentive compatible and individually rational, achieves a social penalty (sum of all agents' estimation errors and data collection costs) that is at most a factor 2 of the global minimum. When applied to high dimensional (non-Gaussian) distributions with bounded variance, this mechanism retains these three properties, but with slightly weaker results. Finally, in two special cases where we restrict the strategy space of the agents, we design mechanisms that essentially achieve the global minimum.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects substantial noises and biases. These hinder the attainment of statistical guarantees and, moreover, impose computational challenges on UQ due to the need for repeated network retraining. Building upon the recent neural tangent kernel theory, we create statistically guaranteed schemes to principally \emph{quantify}, and \emph{remove}, the procedural uncertainty of over-parameterized neural networks with very low computation effort. In particular, our approach, based on what we call a procedural-noise-correcting (PNC) predictor, removes the procedural uncertainty by using only \emph{one} auxiliary network that is trained on a suitably labeled data set, instead of many retrained networks employed in deep ensembles. Moreover, by combining our PNC predictor with suitable light-computation resampling methods, we build several approaches to construct asymptotically exact-coverage confidence intervals using as low as four trained networks without additional overheads.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has been widely applied in transportation demand prediction due to its excellent ability to capture non-Euclidean spatial dependence among station-level or regional transportation demands. However, in most of the existing research, the graph convolution was implemented on a heuristically generated adjacency matrix, which could neither reflect the real spatial relationships of stations accurately, nor capture the multi-level spatial dependence of demands adaptively. To cope with the above problems, this paper provides a novel graph convolutional network for transportation demand prediction. Firstly, a novel graph convolution architecture is proposed, which has different adjacency matrices in different layers and all the adjacency matrices are self-learned during the training process. Secondly, a layer-wise coupling mechanism is provided, which associates the upper-level adjacency matrix with the lower-level one. It also reduces the scale of parameters in our model. Lastly, a unitary network is constructed to give the final prediction result by integrating the hidden spatial states with gated recurrent unit, which could capture the multi-level spatial dependence and temporal dynamics simultaneously. Experiments have been conducted on two real-world datasets, NYC Citi Bike and NYC Taxi, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art ones.

Spectral clustering (SC) is a popular clustering technique to find strongly connected communities on a graph. SC can be used in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to implement pooling operations that aggregate nodes belonging to the same cluster. However, the eigendecomposition of the Laplacian is expensive and, since clustering results are graph-specific, pooling methods based on SC must perform a new optimization for each new sample. In this paper, we propose a graph clustering approach that addresses these limitations of SC. We formulate a continuous relaxation of the normalized minCUT problem and train a GNN to compute cluster assignments that minimize this objective. Our GNN-based implementation is differentiable, does not require to compute the spectral decomposition, and learns a clustering function that can be quickly evaluated on out-of-sample graphs. From the proposed clustering method, we design a graph pooling operator that overcomes some important limitations of state-of-the-art graph pooling techniques and achieves the best performance in several supervised and unsupervised tasks.

Graph convolution networks (GCN) are increasingly popular in many applications, yet remain notoriously hard to train over large graph datasets. They need to compute node representations recursively from their neighbors. Current GCN training algorithms suffer from either high computational costs that grow exponentially with the number of layers, or high memory usage for loading the entire graph and node embeddings. In this paper, we propose a novel efficient layer-wise training framework for GCN (L-GCN), that disentangles feature aggregation and feature transformation during training, hence greatly reducing time and memory complexities. We present theoretical analysis for L-GCN under the graph isomorphism framework, that L-GCN leads to as powerful GCNs as the more costly conventional training algorithm does, under mild conditions. We further propose L^2-GCN, which learns a controller for each layer that can automatically adjust the training epochs per layer in L-GCN. Experiments show that L-GCN is faster than state-of-the-arts by at least an order of magnitude, with a consistent of memory usage not dependent on dataset size, while maintaining comparable prediction performance. With the learned controller, L^2-GCN can further cut the training time in half. Our codes are available at //github.com/Shen-Lab/L2-GCN.