Boosted trees is a dominant ML model, exhibiting high accuracy. However, boosted trees are hardly intelligible, and this is a problem whenever they are used in safety-critical applications. Indeed, in such a context, rigorous explanations of the predictions made are expected. Recent work have shown how subset-minimal abductive explanations can be derived for boosted trees, using automated reasoning techniques. However, the generation of such well-founded explanations is intractable in the general case. To improve the scalability of their generation, we introduce the notion of tree-specific explanation for a boosted tree. We show that tree-specific explanations are abductive explanations that can be computed in polynomial time. We also explain how to derive a subset-minimal abductive explanation from a tree-specific explanation. Experiments on various datasets show the computational benefits of leveraging tree-specific explanations for deriving subset-minimal abductive explanations.
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Uncertainty quantification is crucial for assessing the predictive ability of AI algorithms. A large body of work (including normalizing flows and Bayesian neural networks) has been devoted to describing the entire predictive distribution (PD) of a target variable Y given input features $\mathbf{X}$. However, off-the-shelf PDs are usually far from being conditionally calibrated; i.e., the probability of occurrence of an event given input $\mathbf{X}$ can be significantly different from the predicted probability. Most current research on predictive inference (such as conformal prediction) concerns constructing calibrated prediction sets only. It is often believed that the problem of obtaining and assessing entire conditionally calibrated PDs is too challenging. In this work, we show that recalibration, as well as diagnostics of entire PDs, are indeed attainable goals in practice. Our proposed method relies on the idea of regressing probability integral transform (PIT) scores against $\mathbf{X}$. This regression gives full diagnostics of conditional coverage across the entire feature space and can be used to recalibrate misspecified PDs. We benchmark our corrected prediction bands against oracle bands and state-of-the-art predictive inference algorithms for synthetic data, including settings with a distributional shift. Finally, we produce calibrated PDs for two applications: (i) probabilistic nowcasting based on sequences of satellite images, and (ii) estimation of galaxy distances based on imaging data (photometric redshifts).
In this manuscript, we show that any neural network with any activation function can be represented as a decision tree. The representation is equivalence and not an approximation, thus keeping the accuracy of the neural network exactly as is. We believe that this work provides better understanding of neural networks and paves the way to tackle their black-box nature. We share equivalent trees of some neural networks and show that besides providing interpretability, tree representation can also achieve some computational advantages for small networks. The analysis holds both for fully connected and convolutional networks, which may or may not also include skip connections and/or normalizations.
Wikipedia is one of the most visited websites in the world and is also a frequent subject of scientific research. However, the analytical possibilities of Wikipedia information have not yet been analyzed considering at the same time both a large volume of pages and attributes. The main objective of this work is to offer a methodological framework and an open knowledge graph for the informetric large-scale study of Wikipedia. Features of Wikipedia pages are compared with those of scientific publications to highlight the (di)similarities between the two types of documents. Based on this comparison, different analytical possibilities that Wikipedia and its various data sources offer are explored, ultimately offering a set of metrics meant to study Wikipedia from different analytical dimensions. In parallel, a complete dedicated dataset of the English Wikipedia was built (and shared) following a relational model. Finally, a descriptive case study is carried out on the English Wikipedia dataset to illustrate the analytical potential of the knowledge graph and its metrics.
Multivariate functional data arise in a wide range of applications. One fundamental task is to understand the causal relationships among these functional objects of interest, which has not yet been fully explored. In this article, we develop a novel Bayesian network model for multivariate functional data where the conditional independence and causal structure are both encoded by a directed acyclic graph. Specifically, we allow the functional objects to deviate from Gaussian process, which is adopted by most existing functional data analysis models. The more reasonable non-Gaussian assumption is the key for unique causal structure identification even when the functions are measured with noises. A fully Bayesian framework is designed to infer the functional Bayesian network model with natural uncertainty quantification through posterior summaries. Simulation studies and real data examples are used to demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed model.
Explaining to users why some items are recommended is critical, as it can help users to make better decisions, increase their satisfaction, and gain their trust in recommender systems (RS). However, existing explainable RS usually consider explanation as a side output of the recommendation model, which has two problems: (1) it is difficult to evaluate the produced explanations because they are usually model-dependent, and (2) as a result, how the explanations impact the recommendation performance is less investigated. In this paper, explaining recommendations is formulated as a ranking task, and learned from data, similar to item ranking for recommendation. This makes it possible for standard evaluation of explanations via ranking metrics (e.g., NDCG). Furthermore, this paper extends traditional item ranking to an item-explanation joint-ranking formalization to study if purposely selecting explanations could reach certain learning goals, e.g., improving recommendation performance. A great challenge, however, is that the sparsity issue in the user-item-explanation data would be inevitably severer than that in traditional user-item interaction data, since not every user-item pair can be associated with all explanations. To mitigate this issue, this paper proposes to perform two sets of matrix factorization by considering the ternary relationship as two groups of binary relationships. Experiments on three large datasets verify the solution's effectiveness on both explanation ranking and item recommendation.
In recent years, Graph Neural Networks have reported outstanding performance in tasks like community detection, molecule classification and link prediction. However, the black-box nature of these models prevents their application in domains like health and finance, where understanding the models' decisions is essential. Counterfactual Explanations (CE) provide these understandings through examples. Moreover, the literature on CE is flourishing with novel explanation methods which are tailored to graph learning. In this survey, we analyse the existing Graph Counterfactual Explanation methods, by providing the reader with an organisation of the literature according to a uniform formal notation for definitions, datasets, and metrics, thus, simplifying potential comparisons w.r.t to the method advantages and disadvantages. We discussed seven methods and sixteen synthetic and real datasets providing details on the possible generation strategies. We highlight the most common evaluation strategies and formalise nine of the metrics used in the literature. We first introduce the evaluation framework GRETEL and how it is possible to extend and use it while providing a further dimension of comparison encompassing reproducibility aspects. Finally, we provide a discussion on how counterfactual explanation interplays with privacy and fairness, before delving into open challenges and future works.
While AI algorithms have shown remarkable success in various fields, their lack of transparency hinders their application to real-life tasks. Although explanations targeted at non-experts are necessary for user trust and human-AI collaboration, the majority of explanation methods for AI are focused on developers and expert users. Counterfactual explanations are local explanations that offer users advice on what can be changed in the input for the output of the black-box model to change. Counterfactuals are user-friendly and provide actionable advice for achieving the desired output from the AI system. While extensively researched in supervised learning, there are few methods applying them to reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we explore the reasons for the underrepresentation of a powerful explanation method in RL. We start by reviewing the current work in counterfactual explanations in supervised learning. Additionally, we explore the differences between counterfactual explanations in supervised learning and RL and identify the main challenges that prevent adoption of methods from supervised in reinforcement learning. Finally, we redefine counterfactuals for RL and propose research directions for implementing counterfactuals in RL.
Knowledge graphs (KGs) capture knowledge in the form of head--relation--tail triples and are a crucial component in many AI systems. There are two important reasoning tasks on KGs: (1) single-hop knowledge graph completion, which involves predicting individual links in the KG; and (2), multi-hop reasoning, where the goal is to predict which KG entities satisfy a given logical query. Embedding-based methods solve both tasks by first computing an embedding for each entity and relation, then using them to form predictions. However, existing scalable KG embedding frameworks only support single-hop knowledge graph completion and cannot be applied to the more challenging multi-hop reasoning task. Here we present Scalable Multi-hOp REasoning (SMORE), the first general framework for both single-hop and multi-hop reasoning in KGs. Using a single machine SMORE can perform multi-hop reasoning in Freebase KG (86M entities, 338M edges), which is 1,500x larger than previously considered KGs. The key to SMORE's runtime performance is a novel bidirectional rejection sampling that achieves a square root reduction of the complexity of online training data generation. Furthermore, SMORE exploits asynchronous scheduling, overlapping CPU-based data sampling, GPU-based embedding computation, and frequent CPU--GPU IO. SMORE increases throughput (i.e., training speed) over prior multi-hop KG frameworks by 2.2x with minimal GPU memory requirements (2GB for training 400-dim embeddings on 86M-node Freebase) and achieves near linear speed-up with the number of GPUs. Moreover, on the simpler single-hop knowledge graph completion task SMORE achieves comparable or even better runtime performance to state-of-the-art frameworks on both single GPU and multi-GPU settings.
Incorporating knowledge graph into recommender systems has attracted increasing attention in recent years. By exploring the interlinks within a knowledge graph, the connectivity between users and items can be discovered as paths, which provide rich and complementary information to user-item interactions. Such connectivity not only reveals the semantics of entities and relations, but also helps to comprehend a user's interest. However, existing efforts have not fully explored this connectivity to infer user preferences, especially in terms of modeling the sequential dependencies within and holistic semantics of a path. In this paper, we contribute a new model named Knowledge-aware Path Recurrent Network (KPRN) to exploit knowledge graph for recommendation. KPRN can generate path representations by composing the semantics of both entities and relations. By leveraging the sequential dependencies within a path, we allow effective reasoning on paths to infer the underlying rationale of a user-item interaction. Furthermore, we design a new weighted pooling operation to discriminate the strengths of different paths in connecting a user with an item, endowing our model with a certain level of explainability. We conduct extensive experiments on two datasets about movie and music, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art solutions Collaborative Knowledge Base Embedding and Neural Factorization Machine.
Most previous event extraction studies have relied heavily on features derived from annotated event mentions, thus cannot be applied to new event types without annotation effort. In this work, we take a fresh look at event extraction and model it as a grounding problem. We design a transferable neural architecture, mapping event mentions and types jointly into a shared semantic space using structural and compositional neural networks, where the type of each event mention can be determined by the closest of all candidate types . By leveraging (1)~available manual annotations for a small set of existing event types and (2)~existing event ontologies, our framework applies to new event types without requiring additional annotation. Experiments on both existing event types (e.g., ACE, ERE) and new event types (e.g., FrameNet) demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. \textit{Without any manual annotations} for 23 new event types, our zero-shot framework achieved performance comparable to a state-of-the-art supervised model which is trained from the annotations of 500 event mentions.
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