Uncertainty quantification is crucial for assessing the predictive ability of AI algorithms. A large body of work (including normalizing flows and Bayesian neural networks) has been devoted to describing the entire predictive distribution (PD) of a target variable Y given input features $\mathbf{X}$. However, off-the-shelf PDs are usually far from being conditionally calibrated; i.e., the probability of occurrence of an event given input $\mathbf{X}$ can be significantly different from the predicted probability. Most current research on predictive inference (such as conformal prediction) concerns constructing calibrated prediction sets only. It is often believed that the problem of obtaining and assessing entire conditionally calibrated PDs is too challenging. In this work, we show that recalibration, as well as diagnostics of entire PDs, are indeed attainable goals in practice. Our proposed method relies on the idea of regressing probability integral transform (PIT) scores against $\mathbf{X}$. This regression gives full diagnostics of conditional coverage across the entire feature space and can be used to recalibrate misspecified PDs. We benchmark our corrected prediction bands against oracle bands and state-of-the-art predictive inference algorithms for synthetic data, including settings with a distributional shift. Finally, we produce calibrated PDs for two applications: (i) probabilistic nowcasting based on sequences of satellite images, and (ii) estimation of galaxy distances based on imaging data (photometric redshifts).
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Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more robust and efficient uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we consider the problem of obtaining distribution-free prediction regions accounting for a shift in the distribution of the covariates between the training and test data. Under an explainable covariate shift assumption analogous to the standard missing at random assumption, we propose three variants of a general framework to construct well-calibrated prediction regions for the unobserved outcome in the test sample. Our approach is based on the efficient influence function for the quantile of the unobserved outcome in the test population combined with an arbitrary machine learning prediction algorithm, without compromising asymptotic coverage. Next, we extend our approach to account for departure from the explainable covariate shift assumption in a semiparametric sensitivity analysis for potential latent covariate shift. In all cases, we establish that the resulting prediction sets eventually attain nominal average coverage in large samples. This guarantee is a consequence of the product bias form of our proposal which implies correct coverage if either the propensity score or the conditional distribution of the response is estimated sufficiently well. Our results also provide a framework for construction of doubly robust prediction sets of individual treatment effects, under both unconfoundedness and allowing for some degree of unmeasured confounding. Finally, we discuss aggregation of prediction sets from different machine learning algorithms for optimal prediction and illustrate the performance of our methods in both synthetic and real data.
The performance of decision policies and prediction models often deteriorates when applied to environments different from the ones seen during training. To ensure reliable operation, we propose and analyze the stability of a system under distribution shift, which is defined as the smallest change in the underlying environment that causes the system's performance to deteriorate beyond a permissible threshold. In contrast to standard tail risk measures and distributionally robust losses that require the specification of a plausible magnitude of distribution shift, the stability measure is defined in terms of a more intuitive quantity: the level of acceptable performance degradation. We develop a minimax optimal estimator of stability and analyze its convergence rate, which exhibits a fundamental phase shift behavior. Our characterization of the minimax convergence rate shows that evaluating stability against large performance degradation incurs a statistical cost. Empirically, we demonstrate the practical utility of our stability framework by using it to compare system designs on problems where robustness to distribution shift is critical.
Wearable Cognitive Assistance (WCA) applications present a challenge to benchmark and characterize due to their human-in-the-loop nature. Employing user testing to optimize system parameters is generally not feasible, given the scope of the problem and the number of observations needed to detect small but important effects in controlled experiments. Considering the intended mass-scale deployment of WCA applications in the future, there exists a need for tools enabling human-independent benchmarking. We present in this paper the first model for the complete end-to-end emulation of humans in WCA. We build this model through statistical analysis of data collected from previous work in this field, and demonstrate its utility by studying application task durations. Compared to first-order approximations, our model shows a ~36% larger gap between step execution times at high system impairment versus low. We further introduce a novel framework for stochastic optimization of resource consumption-responsiveness tradeoffs in WCA, and show that by combining this framework with our realistic model of human behavior, significant reductions of up to 50% in number processed frame samples and 20% in energy consumption can be achieved with respect to the state-of-the-art.
This work proposes the continuous conditional generative adversarial network (CcGAN), the first generative model for image generation conditional on continuous, scalar conditions (termed regression labels). Existing conditional GANs (cGANs) are mainly designed for categorical conditions (eg, class labels); conditioning on regression labels is mathematically distinct and raises two fundamental problems:(P1) Since there may be very few (even zero) real images for some regression labels, minimizing existing empirical versions of cGAN losses (aka empirical cGAN losses) often fails in practice;(P2) Since regression labels are scalar and infinitely many, conventional label input methods are not applicable. The proposed CcGAN solves the above problems, respectively, by (S1) reformulating existing empirical cGAN losses to be appropriate for the continuous scenario; and (S2) proposing a naive label input (NLI) method and an improved label input (ILI) method to incorporate regression labels into the generator and the discriminator. The reformulation in (S1) leads to two novel empirical discriminator losses, termed the hard vicinal discriminator loss (HVDL) and the soft vicinal discriminator loss (SVDL) respectively, and a novel empirical generator loss. The error bounds of a discriminator trained with HVDL and SVDL are derived under mild assumptions in this work. Two new benchmark datasets (RC-49 and Cell-200) and a novel evaluation metric (Sliding Fr\'echet Inception Distance) are also proposed for this continuous scenario. Our experiments on the Circular 2-D Gaussians, RC-49, UTKFace, Cell-200, and Steering Angle datasets show that CcGAN is able to generate diverse, high-quality samples from the image distribution conditional on a given regression label. Moreover, in these experiments, CcGAN substantially outperforms cGAN both visually and quantitatively.
Robotic tasks which involve uncertainty--due to variation in goal, environment configuration, or confidence in task model--may require human input to instruct or adapt the robot. In tasks with physical contact, several existing methods for adapting robot trajectory or impedance according to individual uncertainties have been proposed, e.g., realizing intention detection or uncertainty-aware learning from demonstration. However, isolated methods cannot address the wide range of uncertainties jointly present in many tasks. To improve generality, this paper proposes a model predictive control (MPC) framework which plans both trajectory and impedance online, can consider discrete and continuous uncertainties, includes safety constraints, and can be efficiently applied to a new task. This framework can consider uncertainty from: contact constraint variation, uncertainty in human goals, or task disturbances. An uncertainty-aware task model is learned from a few ($\leq3$) demonstrations using Gaussian Processes. This task model is used in a nonlinear MPC problem to optimize robot trajectory and impedance according to belief in discrete human goals, human kinematics, safety constraints, contact stability, and frequency-domain disturbance rejection. This MPC formulation is introduced, analyzed with respect to convexity, and validated in co-manipulation with multiple goals, a collaborative polishing task, and a collaborative assembly task.
Polynomials are common algebraic structures, which are often used to approximate functions including probability distributions. This paper proposes to directly define polynomial distributions in order to describe stochastic properties of systems rather than to assume polynomials for only approximating known or empirically estimated distributions. Polynomial distributions offer a great modeling flexibility, and often, also mathematical tractability. However, unlike canonical distributions, polynomial functions may have non-negative values in the interval of support for some parameter values, the number of their parameters is usually much larger than for canonical distributions, and the interval of support must be finite. In particular, polynomial distributions are defined here assuming three forms of polynomial function. The transformation of polynomial distributions and fitting a histogram to a polynomial distribution are considered. The key properties of polynomial distributions are derived in closed-form. A piecewise polynomial distribution construction is devised to ensure that it is non-negative over the support interval. Finally, the problems of estimating parameters of polynomial distributions and generating polynomially distributed samples are also studied.
Charge dynamics play essential role in many practical applications such as semiconductors, electrochemical devices and transmembrane ion channels. A Maxwell-Amp\`{e}re Nernst-Planck (MANP) model that describes charge dynamics via concentrations and the electric displacement is able to take effects beyond mean-field approximations into account. To obtain physically faithful numerical solutions, we develop a structure-preserving numerical method for the MANP model whose solution has several physical properties of importance. By the Slotboom transform with entropic-mean approximations, a positivity preserving scheme with Scharfetter-Gummel fluxes is derived for the generalized Nernst-Planck equations. To deal with the curl-free constraint, the dielectric displacement from the Maxwell-Amp\`{e}re equation is further updated with a local relaxation algorithm of linear computational complexity. We prove that the proposed numerical method unconditionally preserves the mass conservation and the solution positivity at the discrete level, and satisfies the discrete energy dissipation law with a time-step restriction. Numerical experiments verify that our numerical method has expected accuracy and structure-preserving properties. Applications to ion transport with large convection, arising from boundary-layer electric field and Born solvation interactions, further demonstrate that the MANP formulation with the proposed numerical scheme has attractive performance and can effectively describe charge dynamics with large convection of high numerical cell P\'{e}clet numbers.
A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of "true" parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs "selective regularization" only in the parameter directions not informed by data. The solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters.
Spatio-temporal forecasting is challenging attributing to the high nonlinearity in temporal dynamics as well as complex location-characterized patterns in spatial domains, especially in fields like weather forecasting. Graph convolutions are usually used for modeling the spatial dependency in meteorology to handle the irregular distribution of sensors' spatial location. In this work, a novel graph-based convolution for imitating the meteorological flows is proposed to capture the local spatial patterns. Based on the assumption of smoothness of location-characterized patterns, we propose conditional local convolution whose shared kernel on nodes' local space is approximated by feedforward networks, with local representations of coordinate obtained by horizon maps into cylindrical-tangent space as its input. The established united standard of local coordinate system preserves the orientation on geography. We further propose the distance and orientation scaling terms to reduce the impacts of irregular spatial distribution. The convolution is embedded in a Recurrent Neural Network architecture to model the temporal dynamics, leading to the Conditional Local Convolution Recurrent Network (CLCRN). Our model is evaluated on real-world weather benchmark datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance with obvious improvements. We conduct further analysis on local pattern visualization, model's framework choice, advantages of horizon maps and etc.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
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