We propose center-outward superquantile and expected shortfall functions, with applications to multivariate risk measurements, extending the standard notion of value at risk and conditional value at risk from the real line to $\RR^d$. Our new concepts are built upon the recent definition of Monge-Kantorovich quantiles based on the theory of optimal transport, and they provide a natural way to characterize multivariate tail probabilities and central areas of point clouds. They preserve the univariate interpretation of a typical observation that lies beyond or ahead a quantile, but in a meaningful multivariate way. We show that they characterize random vectors and their convergence in distribution, which underlines their importance. Our new concepts are illustrated on both simulated and real datasets.
The prowess that makes few-shot learning desirable in medical image analysis is the efficient use of the support image data, which are labelled to classify or segment new classes, a task that otherwise requires substantially more training images and expert annotations. This work describes a fully 3D prototypical few-shot segmentation algorithm, such that the trained networks can be effectively adapted to clinically interesting structures that are absent in training, using only a few labelled images from a different institute. First, to compensate for the widely recognised spatial variability between institutions in episodic adaptation of novel classes, a novel spatial registration mechanism is integrated into prototypical learning, consisting of a segmentation head and an spatial alignment module. Second, to assist the training with observed imperfect alignment, support mask conditioning module is proposed to further utilise the annotation available from the support images. Extensive experiments are presented in an application of segmenting eight anatomical structures important for interventional planning, using a data set of 589 pelvic T2-weighted MR images, acquired at seven institutes. The results demonstrate the efficacy in each of the 3D formulation, the spatial registration, and the support mask conditioning, all of which made positive contributions independently or collectively. Compared with the previously proposed 2D alternatives, the few-shot segmentation performance was improved with statistical significance, regardless whether the support data come from the same or different institutes.
Machine learning techniques, in particular the so-called normalizing flows, are becoming increasingly popular in the context of Monte Carlo simulations as they can effectively approximate target probability distributions. In the case of lattice field theories (LFT) the target distribution is given by the exponential of the action. The common loss function's gradient estimator based on the "reparametrization trick" requires the calculation of the derivative of the action with respect to the fields. This can present a significant computational cost for complicated, non-local actions like e.g. fermionic action in QCD. In this contribution, we propose an estimator for normalizing flows based on the REINFORCE algorithm that avoids this issue. We apply it to two dimensional Schwinger model with Wilson fermions at criticality and show that it is up to ten times faster in terms of the wall-clock time as well as requiring up to $30\%$ less memory than the reparameterization trick estimator. It is also more numerically stable allowing for single precision calculations and the use of half-float tensor cores. We present an in-depth analysis of the origins of those improvements. We believe that these benefits will appear also outside the realm of the LFT, in each case where the target probability distribution is computationally intensive.
Within the framework of computational plasticity, recent advances show that the quasi-static response of an elasto-plastic structure under cyclic loadings may exhibit a time multiscale behaviour. In particular, the system response can be computed in terms of time microscale and macroscale modes using a weakly intrusive multi-time Proper Generalized Decomposition (MT-PGD). In this work, such micro-macro characterization of the time response is exploited to build a data-driven model of the elasto-plastic constitutive relation. This can be viewed as a predictor-corrector scheme where the prediction is driven by the macrotime evolution and the correction is performed via a sparse sampling in space. Once the nonlinear term is forecasted, the multi-time PGD algorithm allows the fast computation of the total strain. The algorithm shows considerable gains in terms of computational time, opening new perspectives in the numerical simulation of history-dependent problems defined in very large time intervals.
There is a growing interest in the implementation of platform trials, which provide the flexibility to incorporate new treatment arms during the trial and the ability to halt treatments early based on lack of benefit or observed superiority. In such trials, it can be important to ensure that error rates are controlled. This paper introduces a multi-stage design that enables the addition of new treatment arms, at any point, in a pre-planned manner within a platform trial, while still maintaining control over the family-wise error rate. This paper focuses on finding the required sample size to achieve a desired level of statistical power when treatments are continued to be tested even after a superior treatment has already been found. This may be of interest if there are other sponsors treatments which are also superior to the current control or multiple doses being tested. The calculations to determine the expected sample size is given. A motivating trial is presented in which the sample size of different configurations is studied. Additionally the approach is compared to running multiple separate trials and it is shown that in many scenarios if family wise error rate control is needed there may not be benefit in using a platform trial when comparing the sample size of the trial.
Neural dynamical systems with stable attractor structures, such as point attractors and continuous attractors, are hypothesized to underlie meaningful temporal behavior that requires working memory. However, working memory may not support useful learning signals necessary to adapt to changes in the temporal structure of the environment. We show that in addition to the continuous attractors that are widely implicated, periodic and quasi-periodic attractors can also support learning arbitrarily long temporal relationships. Unlike the continuous attractors that suffer from the fine-tuning problem, the less explored quasi-periodic attractors are uniquely qualified for learning to produce temporally structured behavior. Our theory has broad implications for the design of artificial learning systems and makes predictions about observable signatures of biological neural dynamics that can support temporal dependence learning and working memory. Based on our theory, we developed a new initialization scheme for artificial recurrent neural networks that outperforms standard methods for tasks that require learning temporal dynamics. Moreover, we propose a robust recurrent memory mechanism for integrating and maintaining head direction without a ring attractor.
The design of automatic speech pronunciation assessment can be categorized into closed and open response scenarios, each with strengths and limitations. A system with the ability to function in both scenarios can cater to diverse learning needs and provide a more precise and holistic assessment of pronunciation skills. In this study, we propose a Multi-task Pronunciation Assessment model called MultiPA. MultiPA provides an alternative to Kaldi-based systems in that it has simpler format requirements and better compatibility with other neural network models. Compared with previous open response systems, MultiPA provides a wider range of evaluations, encompassing assessments at both the sentence and word-level. Our experimental results show that MultiPA achieves comparable performance when working in closed response scenarios and maintains more robust performance when directly used for open responses.
Joint models (JM) for longitudinal and survival data have gained increasing interest and found applications in a wide range of clinical and biomedical settings. These models facilitate the understanding of the relationship between outcomes and enable individualized predictions. In many applications, more complex event processes arise, necessitating joint longitudinal and multistate models. However, their practical application can be hindered by computational challenges due to increased model complexity and large sample sizes. Motivated by a longitudinal multimorbidity analysis of large UK health records, we have developed a scalable Bayesian methodology for such joint multistate models that is capable of handling complex event processes and large datasets, with straightforward implementation. We propose two blockwise inference approaches for different inferential purposes based on different levels of decomposition of the multistate processes. These approaches leverage parallel computing, ease the specification of different models for different transitions, and model/variable selection can be performed within a Bayesian framework using Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation. Using a simulation study, we show that the proposed approaches achieve satisfactory performance regarding posterior point and interval estimation, with notable gains in sampling efficiency compared to the standard estimation strategy. We illustrate our approaches using a large UK electronic health record dataset where we analysed the coevolution of routinely measured systolic blood pressure (SBP) and the progression of multimorbidity, defined as the combinations of three chronic conditions. Our analysis identified distinct association structures between SBP and different disease transitions.
The separate tasks of denoising, least squares expectation, and manifold learning can often be posed in a common setting of finding the conditional expectations arising from a product of two random variables. This paper focuses on this more general problem and describes an operator theoretic approach to estimating the conditional expectation. Kernel integral operators are used as a compactification tool, to set up the estimation problem as a linear inverse problem in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This equation is shown to have solutions that allow numerical approximation, thus guaranteeing the convergence of data-driven implementations. The overall technique is easy to implement, and their successful application to some real-world problems are also shown.
The choice to participate in a data-driven service, often made on the basis of quality of that service, influences the ability of the service to learn and improve. We study the participation and retraining dynamics that arise when both the learners and sub-populations of users are \emph{risk-reducing}, which cover a broad class of updates including gradient descent, multiplicative weights, etc. Suppose, for example, that individuals choose to spend their time amongst social media platforms proportionally to how well each platform works for them. Each platform also gathers data about its active users, which it uses to update parameters with a gradient step. For this example and for our general class of dynamics, we show that the only asymptotically stable equilibria are segmented, with sub-populations allocated to a single learner. Under mild assumptions, the utilitarian social optimum is a stable equilibrium. In contrast to previous work, which shows that repeated risk minimization can result in representation disparity and high overall loss for a single learner \citep{hashimoto2018fairness,miller2021outside}, we find that repeated myopic updates with multiple learners lead to better outcomes. We illustrate the phenomena via a simulated example initialized from real data.
Navigating dynamic environments requires the robot to generate collision-free trajectories and actively avoid moving obstacles. Most previous works designed path planning algorithms based on one single map representation, such as the geometric, occupancy, or ESDF map. Although they have shown success in static environments, due to the limitation of map representation, those methods cannot reliably handle static and dynamic obstacles simultaneously. To address the problem, this paper proposes a gradient-based B-spline trajectory optimization algorithm utilizing the robot's onboard vision. The depth vision enables the robot to track and represent dynamic objects geometrically based on the voxel map. The proposed optimization first adopts the circle-based guide-point algorithm to approximate the costs and gradients for avoiding static obstacles. Then, with the vision-detected moving objects, our receding-horizon distance field is simultaneously used to prevent dynamic collisions. Finally, the iterative re-guide strategy is applied to generate the collision-free trajectory. The simulation and physical experiments prove that our method can run in real-time to navigate dynamic environments safely.