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Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant forecast evaluation metrics might indicate the success of policies based in part on those forecasts. We explore one possible tether between forecasts and policy: the allocation of limited medical resources so as to minimize unmet need. We use probabilistic forecasts of disease burden in each of several regions to determine optimal resource allocations, and then we score forecasts according to how much unmet need their associated allocations would have allowed. We illustrate with forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US, and we find that the forecast skill ranking given by this allocation scoring rule can vary substantially from the ranking given by the weighted interval score. We see this as evidence that the allocation scoring rule detects forecast value that is missed by traditional accuracy measures and that the general strategy of designing scoring rules that are directly linked to policy performance is a promising direction for epidemic forecast evaluation.

In addition to enhancing traffic safety and facilitating prompt emergency response, traffic incident detection plays an indispensable role in intelligent transportation systems by providing real-time traffic status information. This enables the realization of intelligent traffic control and management. Previous research has identified that apart from employing advanced algorithmic models, the effectiveness of detection is also significantly influenced by challenges related to acquiring large datasets and addressing dataset imbalances. A hybrid model combining transformer and generative adversarial networks (GANs) is proposed to address these challenges. Experiments are conducted on four real datasets to validate the superiority of the transformer in traffic incident detection. Additionally, GANs are utilized to expand the dataset and achieve a balanced ratio of 1:4, 2:3, and 1:1. The proposed model is evaluated against the baseline model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances the dataset size, balances the dataset, and improves the performance of traffic incident detection in various aspects.

We present an asymptotic expansion formula of an estimator for the drift coefficient of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As the machinery, we apply the general expansion scheme for Wiener functionals recently developed by the authors [26]. The central limit theorem in the principal part of the expansion has the classical scaling T^{1/2}. However, the asymptotic expansion formula is a complex in that the order of the correction term becomes the classical T^{-1/2} for H in (1/2,5/8), but T^{4H-3} for H in [5/8, 3/4).

This study develops a model-based index creation approach called the Generalized Shared Component Model (GSCM) by drawing on the large field of factor models. The proposed fully Bayesian approach accommodates heteroscedastic model error, multiple shared factors and flexible spatial priors. Moreover, our model, unlike previous index approaches, provides indices with uncertainty. Focusing on Australian risk factor data, the proposed GSCM is used to develop the Area Indices of Behaviors Impacting Cancer product - representing the first area level cancer risk factor index in Australia. This advancement aids in identifying communities with elevated cancer risk, facilitating targeted health interventions.

Artificial intelligence (AI) shows great promise in revolutionizing medical imaging, improving diagnosis, and refining treatment methods. However, the training of AI models relies on extensive multi-center datasets, presenting a potential challenge due to concerns about data privacy protection. Federated learning offers a solution by enabling a collaborative model across multiple centers without sharing raw data. In this study, we present a Federated Attention Contrastive Learning (FACL) framework designed to address challenges associated with large-scale pathological images and data heterogeneity. FACL improves model generalization by maximizing attention consistency between the local client and the server model. To enhance privacy and validate robustness, we incorporate differential privacy by introducing noise during parameter transfer. We assess the effectiveness of FACL in cancer diagnosis and Gleason grading tasks using 19,461 whole slide images of prostate cancer sourced from multiple centers. In the diagnosis task, FACL achieves an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9718, outperforming seven centers whose average AUC is 0.9499 when categories are relatively balanced. In the Gleason grading task, FACL attained a Kappa score of 0.8463, surpassing the average Kappa score of 0.7379 from six centers. In conclusion, FACL offers a robust, accurate, and cost-effective AI training model for prostate cancer pathology while maintaining effective data safeguards.

The goal of Universal Cross-Domain Retrieval (UCDR) is to achieve robust performance in generalized test scenarios, wherein data may belong to strictly unknown domains and categories during training. Recently, pre-trained models with prompt tuning have shown strong generalization capabilities and attained noteworthy achievements in various downstream tasks, such as few-shot learning and video-text retrieval. However, applying them directly to UCDR may not sufficiently to handle both domain shift (i.e., adapting to unfamiliar domains) and semantic shift (i.e., transferring to unknown categories). To this end, we propose \textbf{Pro}mpting-to-\textbf{S}imulate (ProS), the first method to apply prompt tuning for UCDR. ProS employs a two-step process to simulate Content-aware Dynamic Prompts (CaDP) which can impact models to produce generalized features for UCDR. Concretely, in Prompt Units Learning stage, we introduce two Prompt Units to individually capture domain and semantic knowledge in a mask-and-align way. Then, in Context-aware Simulator Learning stage, we train a Content-aware Prompt Simulator under a simulated test scenarios to produce the corresponding CaDP. Extensive experiments conducted on three benchmark datasets show that our method achieves new state-of-the-art performance without bringing excessive parameters. Our method is publicly available at //github.com/fangkaipeng/ProS.

Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.

We investigate the problem of automatically determining what type of shoe left an impression found at a crime scene. This recognition problem is made difficult by the variability in types of crime scene evidence (ranging from traces of dust or oil on hard surfaces to impressions made in soil) and the lack of comprehensive databases of shoe outsole tread patterns. We find that mid-level features extracted by pre-trained convolutional neural nets are surprisingly effective descriptors for this specialized domains. However, the choice of similarity measure for matching exemplars to a query image is essential to good performance. For matching multi-channel deep features, we propose the use of multi-channel normalized cross-correlation and analyze its effectiveness. Our proposed metric significantly improves performance in matching crime scene shoeprints to laboratory test impressions. We also show its effectiveness in other cross-domain image retrieval problems: matching facade images to segmentation labels and aerial photos to map images. Finally, we introduce a discriminatively trained variant and fine-tune our system through our proposed metric, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

Training a deep architecture using a ranking loss has become standard for the person re-identification task. Increasingly, these deep architectures include additional components that leverage part detections, attribute predictions, pose estimators and other auxiliary information, in order to more effectively localize and align discriminative image regions. In this paper we adopt a different approach and carefully design each component of a simple deep architecture and, critically, the strategy for training it effectively for person re-identification. We extensively evaluate each design choice, leading to a list of good practices for person re-identification. By following these practices, our approach outperforms the state of the art, including more complex methods with auxiliary components, by large margins on four benchmark datasets. We also provide a qualitative analysis of our trained representation which indicates that, while compact, it is able to capture information from localized and discriminative regions, in a manner akin to an implicit attention mechanism.