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Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant forecast evaluation metrics might indicate the success of policies based in part on those forecasts. We explore one possible tether between forecasts and policy: the allocation of limited medical resources so as to minimize unmet need. We use probabilistic forecasts of disease burden in each of several regions to determine optimal resource allocations, and then we score forecasts according to how much unmet need their associated allocations would have allowed. We illustrate with forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US, and we find that the forecast skill ranking given by this allocation scoring rule can vary substantially from the ranking given by the weighted interval score. We see this as evidence that the allocation scoring rule detects forecast value that is missed by traditional accuracy measures and that the general strategy of designing scoring rules that are directly linked to policy performance is a promising direction for epidemic forecast evaluation.

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality globally, necessitating advancements in diagnostic techniques. This study explores the application of wavelet transformation for classifying electrocardiogram (ECG) signals to identify various cardiovascular conditions. Utilizing the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database, we employed both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms to decompose ECG signals into frequency sub-bands, from which we extracted eight statistical features per band. These features were then used to train and test various classifiers, including K-Nearest Neighbors and Support Vector Machines, among others. The classifiers demonstrated high efficacy, with some achieving an accuracy of up to 96% on test data, suggesting that wavelet-based feature extraction significantly enhances the prediction of cardiovascular abnormalities in ECG data. The findings advocate for further exploration of wavelet transforms in medical diagnostics to improve automation and accuracy in disease detection. Future work will focus on optimizing feature selection and classifier parameters to refine predictive performance further.

Forecasting the occurrence and absence of novel disease outbreaks is essential for disease management. Here, we develop a general model, with no real-world training data, that accurately forecasts outbreaks and non-outbreaks. We propose a novel framework, using a feature-based time series classification method to forecast outbreaks and non-outbreaks. We tested our methods on synthetic data from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for slowly changing, noisy disease dynamics. Outbreak sequences give a transcritical bifurcation within a specified future time window, whereas non-outbreak (null bifurcation) sequences do not. We identified incipient differences in time series of infectives leading to future outbreaks and non-outbreaks. These differences are reflected in 22 statistical features and 5 early warning signal indicators. Classifier performance, given by the area under the receiver-operating curve, ranged from 0.99 for large expanding windows of training data to 0.7 for small rolling windows. Real-world performances of classifiers were tested on two empirical datasets, COVID-19 data from Singapore and SARS data from Hong Kong, with two classifiers exhibiting high accuracy. In summary, we showed that there are statistical features that distinguish outbreak and non-outbreak sequences long before outbreaks occur. We could detect these differences in synthetic and real-world data sets, well before potential outbreaks occur.

This paper describes several cases of adjunction in the homomorphism preorder of relational structures. We say that two functors $\Lambda$ and $\Gamma$ between thin categories of relational structures are adjoint if for all structures $\mathbf A$ and $\mathbf B$, we have that $\Lambda(\mathbf A)$ maps homomorphically to $\mathbf B$ if and only if $\mathbf A$ maps homomorphically to $\Gamma(\mathbf B)$. If this is the case, $\Lambda$ is called the left adjoint to $\Gamma$ and $\Gamma$ the right adjoint to $\Lambda$. In 2015, Foniok and Tardif described some functors on the category of digraphs that allow both left and right adjoints. The main contribution of Foniok and Tardif is a construction of right adjoints to some of the functors identified as right adjoints by Pultr in 1970. We generalise results of Foniok and Tardif to arbitrary relational structures, and coincidently, we also provide more right adjoints on digraphs, and since these constructions are connected to finite duality, we also provide a new construction of duals to trees. Our results are inspired by an application in promise constraint satisfaction -- it has been shown that such functors can be used as efficient reductions between these problems.

We demonstrate that neural networks can be FLOP-efficient integrators of one-dimensional oscillatory integrands. We train a feed-forward neural network to compute integrals of highly oscillatory 1D functions. The training set is a parametric combination of functions with varying characters and oscillatory behavior degrees. Numerical examples show that these networks are FLOP-efficient for sufficiently oscillatory integrands with an average FLOP gain of 1000 FLOPs. The network calculates oscillatory integrals better than traditional quadrature methods under the same computational budget or number of floating point operations. We find that feed-forward networks of 5 hidden layers are satisfactory for a relative accuracy of 0.001. The computational burden of inference of the neural network is relatively small, even compared to inner-product pattern quadrature rules. We postulate that our result follows from learning latent patterns in the oscillatory integrands that are otherwise opaque to traditional numerical integrators.

Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the game has attracted less interest mainly because of the additional challenges that occur. Data analysis has revealed that the number of goals scored by each team are under-dispersed relative to a Poisson distribution and hence new models are needed for this purpose. Here we propose to circumvent the problem by modelling the score difference. This removes the need for special models since typical models for integer data like the Skellam distribution can provide sufficient fit and thus reveal some of the characteristics of the game. In the present paper we propose some models starting from a Skellam regression model and also considering zero inflated versions as well as other discrete distributions in $\mathbb Z$. Furthermore, we develop some bivariate models using copulas to model the two halves of the game and thus providing insights on the game. Data from German Bundesliga are used to show the potential of the new models.

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. Effective treatment decisions require early and informative vascular imaging. 4D perfusion imaging is ideal but rarely available within the first hour after stroke, whereas plain CT and CTA usually are. Hence, we propose a framework to extract a predicted perfusion map (PPM) derived from CT and CTA images. In all eighteen patients, we found significantly high spatial similarity (with average Spearman's correlation = 0.7893) between our predicted perfusion map (PPM) and the T-max map derived from 4D-CTP. Voxelwise correlations between the PPM and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) subscores for L/R hand motor, gaze, and language on a large cohort of 2,110 subjects reliably mapped symptoms to expected infarct locations. Therefore our PPM could serve as an alternative for 4D perfusion imaging, if the latter is unavailable, to investigate blood perfusion in the first hours after hospital admission.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and sleep disorders exhibit a close association, where disruptions in sleep patterns often precede the onset of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and early-stage AD. This study delves into the potential of utilizing sleep-related electroencephalography (EEG) signals acquired through polysomnography (PSG) for the early detection of AD. Our primary focus is on exploring semi-supervised Deep Learning techniques for the classification of EEG signals due to the clinical scenario characterized by the limited data availability. The methodology entails testing and comparing the performance of semi-supervised SMATE and TapNet models, benchmarked against the supervised XCM model, and unsupervised Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The study highlights the significance of spatial and temporal analysis capabilities, conducting independent analyses of each sleep stage. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of SMATE in leveraging limited labeled data, achieving stable metrics across all sleep stages, and reaching 90% accuracy in its supervised form. Comparative analyses reveal SMATE's superior performance over TapNet and HMM, while XCM excels in supervised scenarios with an accuracy range of 92 - 94%. These findings underscore the potential of semi-supervised models in early AD detection, particularly in overcoming the challenges associated with the scarcity of labeled data. Ablation tests affirm the critical role of spatio-temporal feature extraction in semi-supervised predictive performance, and t-SNE visualizations validate the model's proficiency in distinguishing AD patterns. Overall, this research contributes to the advancement of AD detection through innovative Deep Learning approaches, highlighting the crucial role of semi-supervised learning in addressing data limitations.

Some early violins have been reduced during their history to fit imposed morphological standards, while more recent ones have been built directly to these standards. We can observe differences between reduced and unreduced instruments, particularly in their contour lines and channel of minima. In a recent preliminary work, we computed and highlighted those two features for two instruments using triangular 3D meshes acquired by photogrammetry, whose fidelity has been assessed and validated with sub-millimetre accuracy. We propose here an extension to a corpus of 38 violins, violas and cellos, and introduce improved procedures, leading to a stronger discussion of the geometric analysis. We first recall the material we are working with. We then discuss how to derive the best reference plane for the violin alignment, which is crucial for the computation of contour lines and channel of minima. Finally, we show how to compute efficiently both characteristics and we illustrate our results with a few examples.

We propose a method for obtaining parsimonious decompositions of networks into higher order interactions which can take the form of arbitrary motifs.The method is based on a class of analytically solvable generative models, where vertices are connected via explicit copies of motifs, which in combination with non-parametric priors allow us to infer higher order interactions from dyadic graph data without any prior knowledge on the types or frequencies of such interactions. Crucially, we also consider 'degree--corrected' models that correctly reflect the degree distribution of the network and consequently prove to be a better fit for many real world--networks compared to non-degree corrected models. We test the presented approach on simulated data for which we recover the set of underlying higher order interactions to a high degree of accuracy. For empirical networks the method identifies concise sets of atomic subgraphs from within thousands of candidates that cover a large fraction of edges and include higher order interactions of known structural and functional significance. The method not only produces an explicit higher order representation of the network but also a fit of the network to analytically tractable models opening new avenues for the systematic study of higher order network structures.

Diagnostic tests which can detect pre-clinical or sub-clinical infection, are one of the most powerful tools in our armoury of weapons to control infectious diseases. Considerable effort has been therefore paid to improving diagnostic testing for human, plant and animal diseases, including strategies for targeting the use of diagnostic tests towards individuals who are more likely to be infected. Here, we follow other recent proposals to further refine this concept, by using machine learning to assess the situational risk under which a diagnostic test is applied to augment its interpretation . We develop this to predict the occurrence of breakdowns of cattle herds due to bovine tuberculosis, exploiting the availability of exceptionally detailed testing records. We show that, without compromising test specificity, test sensitivity can be improved so that the proportion of infected herds detected by the skin test, improves by over 16 percentage points. While many risk factors are associated with increased risk of becoming infected, of note are several factors which suggest that, in some herds there is a higher risk of infection going undetected, including effects that are correlated to the veterinary practice conducting the test, and number of livestock moved off the herd.

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