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Practical parameter identifiability in ODE-based epidemiological models is a known issue, yet one that merits further study. It is essentially ubiquitous due to noise and errors in real data. In this study, to avoid uncertainty stemming from data of unknown quality, simulated data with added noise are used to investigate practical identifiability in two distinct epidemiological models. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of initial conditions, which are assumed unknown, except those that are directly measured. Instead of just focusing on one method of estimation, we use and compare results from various broadly used methods, including maximum likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation. Among other findings, our analysis revealed that the MCMC estimator is overall more robust than the point estimators considered. Its estimates and predictions are improved when the initial conditions of certain compartments are fixed so that the model becomes globally identifiable. For the point estimators, whether fixing or fitting the that are not directly measured improves parameter estimates is model-dependent. Specifically, in the standard SEIR model, fixing the initial condition for the susceptible population S(0) improved parameter estimates, while this was not true when fixing the initial condition of the asymptomatic population in a more involved model. Our study corroborates the change in quality of parameter estimates upon usage of pre-peak or post-peak time-series under consideration. Finally, our examples suggest that in the presence of significantly noisy data, the value of structural identifiability is moot.

This paper addresses the optimization problem of minimizing non-convex continuous functions, which is relevant in the context of high-dimensional machine learning applications characterized by over-parametrization. We analyze a randomized coordinate second-order method named SSCN which can be interpreted as applying cubic regularization in random subspaces. This approach effectively reduces the computational complexity associated with utilizing second-order information, rendering it applicable in higher-dimensional scenarios. Theoretically, we establish convergence guarantees for non-convex functions, with interpolating rates for arbitrary subspace sizes and allowing inexact curvature estimation. When increasing subspace size, our complexity matches $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ of the cubic regularization (CR) rate. Additionally, we propose an adaptive sampling scheme ensuring exact convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3/2}, \epsilon^{-3})$ to a second-order stationary point, even without sampling all coordinates. Experimental results demonstrate substantial speed-ups achieved by SSCN compared to conventional first-order methods.

Structural identifiability is an important property of parametric ODE models. When conducting an experiment and inferring the parameter value from the time-series data, we want to know if the value is globally, locally, or non-identifiable. Global identifiability of the parameter indicates that there exists only one possible solution to the inference problem, local identifiability suggests that there could be several (but finitely many) possibilities, while non-identifiability implies that there are infinitely many possibilities for the value. Having this information is useful since, one would, for example, only perform inferences for the parameters which are identifiable. Given the current significance and widespread research conducted in this area, we decided to create a database of linear compartment models and their identifiability results. This facilitates the process of checking theorems and conjectures and drawing conclusions on identifiability. By only storing models up to symmetries and isomorphisms, we optimize memory efficiency and reduce query time. We conclude by applying our database to real problems. We tested a conjecture about deleting one leak of the model states in the paper 'Linear compartmental models: Input-output equations and operations that preserve identifiability' by E. Gross et al., and managed to produce a counterexample. We also compute some interesting statistics related to the identifiability of linear compartment model parameters.

Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is a recently implemented technique that allows for parallel operation of experimental systems and disjointed workflows. Contrasting with serial Bayesian optimization which individually selects experiments one at a time after conducting a measurement for each experiment, asynchronous policies sequentially assign multiple experiments before measurements can be taken and evaluate new measurements continuously as they are made available. This technique allows for faster data generation and therefore faster optimization of an experimental space. This work extends the capabilities of asynchronous optimization methods beyond prior studies by evaluating four additional policies that incorporate pessimistic predictions in the training data set. Combined with a conventional greedy policy, the five total policies were evaluated in a simulated environment and benchmarked with serial sampling. Under some conditions and parameter space dimensionalities, the pessimistic asynchronous policy reached optimum experimental conditions in significantly fewer experiments than equivalent serial policies and proved to be less susceptible to convergence onto local optima at higher dimensions. Without accounting for the faster sampling rate, the pessimistic asynchronous algorithm presented in this work could result in more efficient algorithm driven optimization of high-cost experimental spaces. Accounting for sampling rate, the presented asynchronous algorithm could allow for faster optimization in experimental spaces where multiple experiments can be run before results are collected.

Estimating parameters of a diffusion process given continuous-time observations of the process via maximum likelihood approaches or, online, via stochastic gradient descent or Kalman filter formulations constitutes a well-established research area. It has also been established previously that these techniques are, in general, not robust to perturbations in the data in the form of temporal correlations. While the subject is relatively well understood and appropriate modifications have been suggested in the context of multi-scale diffusion processes and their reduced model equations, we consider here an alternative setting where a second-order diffusion process in positions and velocities is only observed via its positions. In this note, we propose a simple modification to standard stochastic gradient descent and Kalman filter formulations, which eliminates the arising systematic estimation biases. The modification can be extended to standard maximum likelihood approaches and avoids computation of previously proposed correction terms.

We present a method for computing nearly singular integrals that occur when single or double layer surface integrals, for harmonic potentials or Stokes flow, are evaluated at points nearby. Such values could be needed in solving an integral equation when one surface is close to another or to obtain values at grid points. We replace the singular kernel with a regularized version having a length parameter $\delta$ in order to control discretization error. Analysis near the singularity leads to an expression for the error due to regularization which has terms with unknown coefficients multiplying known quantities. By computing the integral with three choices of $\delta$ we can solve for an extrapolated value that has regularization error reduced to $O(\delta^5)$, uniformly for target points on or near the surface. In examples with $\delta/h$ constant and moderate resolution we observe total error about $O(h^5)$ close to the surface. For convergence as $h \to 0$ we can choose $\delta$ proportional to $h^q$ with $q < 1$ to ensure the discretization error is dominated by the regularization error. With $q = 4/5$ we find errors about $O(h^4)$. For harmonic potentials we extend the approach to a version with $O(\delta^7)$ regularization; it typically has smaller errors but the order of accuracy is less predictable.

Learning tasks play an increasingly prominent role in quantum information and computation. They range from fundamental problems such as state discrimination and metrology over the framework of quantum probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, to the recently proposed shadow variants of state tomography. However, the many directions of quantum learning theory have so far evolved separately. We propose a general mathematical formalism for describing quantum learning by training on classical-quantum data and then testing how well the learned hypothesis generalizes to new data. In this framework, we prove bounds on the expected generalization error of a quantum learner in terms of classical and quantum information-theoretic quantities measuring how strongly the learner's hypothesis depends on the specific data seen during training. To achieve this, we use tools from quantum optimal transport and quantum concentration inequalities to establish non-commutative versions of decoupling lemmas that underlie recent information-theoretic generalization bounds for classical machine learning. Our framework encompasses and gives intuitively accessible generalization bounds for a variety of quantum learning scenarios such as quantum state discrimination, PAC learning quantum states, quantum parameter estimation, and quantumly PAC learning classical functions. Thereby, our work lays a foundation for a unifying quantum information-theoretic perspective on quantum learning.

This paper studies the convergence of a spatial semidiscretization of a three-dimensional stochastic Allen-Cahn equation with multiplicative noise. For non-smooth initial data, the regularity of the mild solution is investigated, and an error estimate is derived within the spatial (L^2)-norm setting. In the case of smooth initial data, two error estimates are established within the framework of general spatial (L^q)-norms.

A novel and fully distributed optimization method is proposed for the distributed robust convex program (DRCP) over a time-varying unbalanced directed network under the uniformly jointly strongly connected (UJSC) assumption. Firstly, a tractable approximated DRCP (ADRCP) is introduced by discretizing the semi-infinite constraints into a finite number of inequality constraints and restricting the right-hand side of the constraints with a positive parameter. This problem is iteratively solved by a distributed projected gradient algorithm proposed in this paper, which is based on epigraphic reformulation and subgradient projected algorithms. Secondly, a cutting-surface consensus approach is proposed for locating an approximately optimal consensus solution of the DRCP with guaranteed feasibility. This approach is based on iteratively approximating the DRCP by successively reducing the restriction parameter of the right-hand constraints and populating the cutting-surfaces into the existing finite set of constraints. Thirdly, to ensure finite-time termination of the distributed optimization, a distributed termination algorithm is developed based on consensus and zeroth-order stopping conditions under UJSC graphs. Fourthly, it is proved that the cutting-surface consensus approach terminates finitely and yields a feasible and approximate optimal solution for each agent. Finally, the effectiveness of the approach is illustrated through a numerical example.

We study the computational problem of rigorously describing the asymptotic behaviour of topological dynamical systems up to a finite but arbitrarily small pre-specified error. More precisely, we consider the limit set of a typical orbit, both as a spatial object (attractor set) and as a statistical distribution (physical measure), and prove upper bounds on the computational resources of computing descriptions of these objects with arbitrary accuracy. We also study how these bounds are affected by different dynamical constrains and provide several examples showing that our bounds are sharp in general. In particular, we exhibit a computable interval map having a unique transitive attractor with Cantor set structure supporting a unique physical measure such that both the attractor and the measure are non computable.