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This work proposes a novel perspective on adversarial attacks by introducing the concept of sample attackability and robustness. Adversarial attacks insert small, imperceptible perturbations to the input that cause large, undesired changes to the output of deep learning models. Despite extensive research on generating adversarial attacks and building defense systems, there has been limited research on understanding adversarial attacks from an input-data perspective. We propose a deep-learning-based method for detecting the most attackable and robust samples in an unseen dataset for an unseen target model. The proposed method is based on a neural network architecture that takes as input a sample and outputs a measure of attackability or robustness. The proposed method is evaluated using a range of different models and different attack methods, and the results demonstrate its effectiveness in detecting the samples that are most likely to be affected by adversarial attacks. Understanding sample attackability can have important implications for future work in sample-selection tasks. For example in active learning, the acquisition function can be designed to select the most attackable samples, or in adversarial training, only the most attackable samples are selected for augmentation.

Can we infer sources of errors from outputs of the complex data analytics software? Bidirectional programming promises that we can reverse flow of software, and translate corrections of output into corrections of either input or data analysis. This allows us to achieve holy grail of automated approaches to debugging, risk reporting and large scale distributed error tracking. Since processing of risk reports and data analysis pipelines can be frequently expressed using a sequence relational algebra operations, we propose a replacement of this traditional approach with a data summarization algebra that helps to determine an impact of errors. It works by defining data analysis of a necessarily complete summarization of a dataset, possibly in multiple ways along multiple dimensions. We also present a description to better communicate how the complete summarizations of the input data may facilitates easier debugging and more efficient development of analysis pipelines. This approach can also be described as an generalization of axiomatic theories of accounting into data analytics, thus dubbed data accounting. We also propose formal properties that allow for transparent assertions about impact of individual records on the aggregated data and ease debugging by allowing to find minimal changes that change behaviour of data analysis on per-record basis.

The multivariate coefficient of variation (MCV) is an attractive and easy-to-interpret effect size for the dispersion in multivariate data. Recently, the first inference methods for the MCV were proposed by Ditzhaus and Smaga (2022) for general factorial designs covering k-sample settings but also complex higher-way layouts. However, two questions are still pending: (1) The theory on inference methods for MCV is primarily derived for one special MCV variant while there are several reasonable proposals. (2) When rejecting a global null hypothesis in factorial designs, a more in-depth analysis is typically of high interest to find the specific contrasts of MCV leading to the aforementioned rejection. In this paper, we tackle both by, first, extending the aforementioned nonparametric permutation procedure to the other MCV variants and, second, by proposing a max-type test for post hoc analysis. To improve the small sample performance of the latter, we suggest a novel studentized bootstrap strategy and prove its asymptotic validity. The actual performance of all proposed tests and post hoc procedures are compared in an extensive simulation study and illustrated by a real data analysis.

Dynamical models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are a fundamental tool in the sciences and engineering. Exact reduction aims at producing a lower-dimensional model in which each macro-variable can be directly related to the original variables, and it is thus a natural step towards the model's formal analysis and mechanistic understanding. We present an algorithm which, given a polynomial ODE model, computes a longest possible chain of exact linear reductions of the model such that each reduction refines the previous one, thus giving a user control of the level of detail preserved by the reduction. This significantly generalizes over the existing approaches which compute only the reduction of the lowest dimension subject to an approach-specific constraint. The algorithm reduces finding exact linear reductions to a question about representations of finite-dimensional algebras. We provide an implementation of the algorithm, demonstrate its performance on a set of benchmarks, and illustrate the applicability via case studies. Our implementation is freely available at //github.com/x3042/ExactODEReduction.jl

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications.

Despite the remarkable performance and generalization levels of deep learning models in a wide range of artificial intelligence tasks, it has been demonstrated that these models can be easily fooled by the addition of imperceptible yet malicious perturbations to natural inputs. These altered inputs are known in the literature as adversarial examples. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework to generalize and extend adversarial attacks in order to produce a desired probability distribution for the classes when we apply the attack method to a large number of inputs. This novel attack paradigm provides the adversary with greater control over the target model, thereby exposing, in a wide range of scenarios, threats against deep learning models that cannot be conducted by the conventional paradigms. We introduce four different strategies to efficiently generate such attacks, and illustrate our approach by extending multiple adversarial attack algorithms. We also experimentally validate our approach for the spoken command classification task and the Tweet emotion classification task, two exemplary machine learning problems in the audio and text domain, respectively. Our results demonstrate that we can closely approximate any probability distribution for the classes while maintaining a high fooling rate and even prevent the attacks from being detected by label-shift detection methods.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

Interpretability methods are developed to understand the working mechanisms of black-box models, which is crucial to their responsible deployment. Fulfilling this goal requires both that the explanations generated by these methods are correct and that people can easily and reliably understand them. While the former has been addressed in prior work, the latter is often overlooked, resulting in informal model understanding derived from a handful of local explanations. In this paper, we introduce explanation summary (ExSum), a mathematical framework for quantifying model understanding, and propose metrics for its quality assessment. On two domains, ExSum highlights various limitations in the current practice, helps develop accurate model understanding, and reveals easily overlooked properties of the model. We also connect understandability to other properties of explanations such as human alignment, robustness, and counterfactual minimality and plausibility.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Training a deep architecture using a ranking loss has become standard for the person re-identification task. Increasingly, these deep architectures include additional components that leverage part detections, attribute predictions, pose estimators and other auxiliary information, in order to more effectively localize and align discriminative image regions. In this paper we adopt a different approach and carefully design each component of a simple deep architecture and, critically, the strategy for training it effectively for person re-identification. We extensively evaluate each design choice, leading to a list of good practices for person re-identification. By following these practices, our approach outperforms the state of the art, including more complex methods with auxiliary components, by large margins on four benchmark datasets. We also provide a qualitative analysis of our trained representation which indicates that, while compact, it is able to capture information from localized and discriminative regions, in a manner akin to an implicit attention mechanism.