Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a useful tool to compare multiple interventions simultaneously in a single meta-analysis, it can be very helpful for medical decision making when the study aims to find the best therapy among several active candidates. However, the validity of its results is threatened by the publication bias issue. Existing methods to handle the publication bias issue in the standard pairwise meta-analysis are hard to extend to this area with the complicated data structure and the underlying assumptions for pooling the data. In this paper, we aimed to provide a flexible inverse probability weighting (IPW) framework along with several t-type selection functions to deal with the publication bias problem in the NMA context. To solve these proposed selection functions, we recommend making use of the additional information from the unpublished studies from multiple clinical trial registries. A comprehensive numerical study and a real example showed that our methodology can help obtain more accurate estimates and higher coverage probabilities, and improve other properties of an NMA (e.g., ranking the interventions).
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Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean field critical exponents. Furthermore, using the statistical physics of disordered systems, we show that memorization can be understood as a form of critical condensation corresponding to a disordered phase transition. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.
Reconstructing a dynamic object with affine motion in computerized tomography (CT) leads to motion artifacts if the motion is not taken into account. In most cases, the actual motion is neither known nor can be determined easily. As a consequence, the respective model that describes CT is incomplete. The iterative RESESOP-Kaczmarz method can - under certain conditions and by exploiting the modeling error - reconstruct dynamic objects at different time points even if the exact motion is unknown. However, the method is very time-consuming. To speed the reconstruction process up and obtain better results, we combine the following three steps: 1. RESESOP-Kacmarz with only a few iterations is implemented to reconstruct the object at different time points. 2. The motion is estimated via landmark detection, e.g. using deep learning. 3. The estimated motion is integrated into the reconstruction process, allowing the use of dynamic filtered backprojection. We give a short review of all methods involved and present numerical results as a proof of principle.
Marginal structural models have been increasingly used by analysts in recent years to account for confounding bias in studies with time-varying treatments. The parameters of these models are often estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting. To ensure that the estimated weights adequately control confounding, it is possible to check for residual imbalance between treatment groups in the weighted data. Several balance metrics have been developed and compared in the cross-sectional case but have not yet been evaluated and compared in longitudinal studies with time-varying treatment. We have first extended the definition of several balance metrics to the case of a time-varying treatment, with or without censoring. We then compared the performance of these balance metrics in a simulation study by assessing the strength of the association between their estimated level of imbalance and bias. We found that the Mahalanobis balance performed best.Finally, the method was illustrated for estimating the cumulative effect of statins exposure over one year on the risk of cardiovascular disease or death in people aged 65 and over in population-wide administrative data. This illustration confirms the feasibility of employing our proposed metrics in large databases with multiple time-points.
In this paper, we harness a result in point process theory, specifically the expectation of the weighted $K$-function, where the weighting is done by the true first-order intensity function. This theoretical result can be employed as an estimation method to derive parameter estimates for a particular model assumed for the data. The underlying motivation is to avoid the difficulties associated with dealing with complex likelihoods in point process models and their maximization. The exploited result makes our method theoretically applicable to any model specification. In this paper, we restrict our study to Poisson models, whose likelihood represents the base for many more complex point process models. In this context, our proposed method can estimate the vector of local parameters that correspond to the points within the analyzed point pattern without introducing any additional complexity compared to the global estimation. We illustrate the method through simulation studies for both purely spatial and spatio-temporal point processes and show complex scenarios based on the Poisson model through the analysis of two real datasets concerning environmental problems.
First-order methods are often analyzed via their continuous-time models, where their worst-case convergence properties are usually approached via Lyapunov functions. In this work, we provide a systematic and principled approach to find and verify Lyapunov functions for classes of ordinary and stochastic differential equations. More precisely, we extend the performance estimation framework, originally proposed by Drori and Teboulle [10], to continuous-time models. We retrieve convergence results comparable to those of discrete methods using fewer assumptions and convexity inequalities, and provide new results for stochastic accelerated gradient flows.
In the context of interstellar communication, it is not known beforehand if the receiver of a given signal would be a plant, an insect, or even life forms unknown to terrestrial scientists. Regardless of the situation, the message time scale could be too fast or too slow and those beings would probably never decode it. Therefore, it is of interest to devise a way to encode messages agnostic of time scale. Fractal messaging would allow one to do this due to their structural self-similarity and, sometimes, scale invariance. By starting from a spatial embedding rationale, a framework is developed for a time scale-free messaging alternative. When one considers a time-agnostic framework for message transmission, it would be interesting to encode a message such that it could be decoded along several spatio-temporal scales. This way, the core idea of the framework hereby proposed is to encode a binary message as waves along infinitely many (power-like distributed) frequencies and amplitudes, transmit such message, and then decode and reproduce it. To do so, the components of the Weierstrass function, a known fractal, are used as the carriers of the message. Each component will have its amplitude modulated to embed the binary stream, allowing for a time-agnostic approach to messaging.
Active learning can improve the efficiency of training prediction models by identifying the most informative new labels to acquire. However, non-response to label requests can impact active learning's effectiveness in real-world contexts. We conceptualise this degradation by considering the type of non-response present in the data, demonstrating that biased non-response is particularly detrimental to model performance. We argue that biased non-response is likely in contexts where the labelling process, by nature, relies on user interactions. To mitigate the impact of biased non-response, we propose a cost-based correction to the sampling strategy--the Upper Confidence Bound of the Expected Utility (UCB-EU)--that can, plausibly, be applied to any active learning algorithm. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our method successfully reduces the harm from labelling non-response in many settings. However, we also characterise settings where the non-response bias in the annotations remains detrimental under UCB-EU for specific sampling methods and data generating processes. Finally, we evaluate our method on a real-world dataset from an e-commerce platform. We show that UCB-EU yields substantial performance improvements to conversion models that are trained on clicked impressions. Most generally, this research serves to both better conceptualise the interplay between types of non-response and model improvements via active learning, and to provide a practical, easy-to-implement correction that mitigates model degradation.
A preference-based subjective evaluation is a key method for evaluating generative media reliably. However, its huge combinations of pairs prohibit it from being applied to large-scale evaluation using crowdsourcing. To address this issue, we propose an automatic optimization method for preference-based subjective evaluation in terms of pair combination selections and allocation of evaluation volumes with online learning in a crowdsourcing environment. We use a preference-based online learning method based on a sorting algorithm to identify the total order of evaluation targets with minimum sample volumes. Our online learning algorithm supports parallel and asynchronous execution under fixed-budget conditions required for crowdsourcing. Our experiment on preference-based subjective evaluation of synthetic speech shows that our method successfully optimizes the test by reducing pair combinations from 351 to 83 and allocating optimal evaluation volumes for each pair ranging from 30 to 663 without compromising evaluation accuracies and wasting budget allocations.
We introduce DynAMO, a reinforcement learning paradigm for Dynamic Anticipatory Mesh Optimization. Adaptive mesh refinement is an effective tool for optimizing computational cost and solution accuracy in numerical methods for partial differential equations. However, traditional adaptive mesh refinement approaches for time-dependent problems typically rely only on instantaneous error indicators to guide adaptivity. As a result, standard strategies often require frequent remeshing to maintain accuracy. In the DynAMO approach, multi-agent reinforcement learning is used to discover new local refinement policies that can anticipate and respond to future solution states by producing meshes that deliver more accurate solutions for longer time intervals. By applying DynAMO to discontinuous Galerkin methods for the linear advection and compressible Euler equations in two dimensions, we demonstrate that this new mesh refinement paradigm can outperform conventional threshold-based strategies while also generalizing to different mesh sizes, remeshing and simulation times, and initial conditions.
Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.
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