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We study the deviation inequality for a sum of high-dimensional random matrices and operators with dependence and arbitrary heavy tails. There is an increase in the importance of the problem of estimating high-dimensional matrices, and dependence and heavy-tail properties of data are among the most critical topics currently. In this paper, we derive a dimension-free upper bound on the deviation, that is, the bound does not depend explicitly on the dimension of matrices, but depends on their effective rank. Our result is a generalization of several existing studies on the deviation of the sum of matrices. Our proof is based on two techniques: (i) a variational approximation of the dual of moment generating functions, and (ii) robustification through truncation of eigenvalues of matrices. We show that our results are applicable to several problems such as covariance matrix estimation, hidden Markov models, and overparameterized linear regression models.

We study the training of deep neural networks by gradient descent where floating-point arithmetic is used to compute the gradients. In this framework and under realistic assumptions, we demonstrate that it is highly unlikely to find ReLU neural networks that maintain, in the course of training with gradient descent, superlinearly many affine pieces with respect to their number of layers. In virtually all approximation theoretical arguments which yield high order polynomial rates of approximation, sequences of ReLU neural networks with exponentially many affine pieces compared to their numbers of layers are used. As a consequence, we conclude that approximating sequences of ReLU neural networks resulting from gradient descent in practice differ substantially from theoretically constructed sequences. The assumptions and the theoretical results are compared to a numerical study, which yields concurring results.

Since out-of-distribution generalization is a generally ill-posed problem, various proxy targets (e.g., calibration, adversarial robustness, algorithmic corruptions, invariance across shifts) were studied across different research programs resulting in different recommendations. While sharing the same aspirational goal, these approaches have never been tested under the same experimental conditions on real data. In this paper, we take a unified view of previous work, highlighting message discrepancies that we address empirically, and providing recommendations on how to measure the robustness of a model and how to improve it. To this end, we collect 172 publicly available dataset pairs for training and out-of-distribution evaluation of accuracy, calibration error, adversarial attacks, environment invariance, and synthetic corruptions. We fine-tune over 31k networks, from nine different architectures in the many- and few-shot setting. Our findings confirm that in- and out-of-distribution accuracies tend to increase jointly, but show that their relation is largely dataset-dependent, and in general more nuanced and more complex than posited by previous, smaller scale studies.

The simulation of human neurons and neurotransmission mechanisms has been realized in deep neural networks based on the theoretical implementations of activation functions. However, recent studies have reported that the threshold potential of neurons exhibits different values according to the locations and types of individual neurons, and that the activation functions have limitations in terms of representing this variability. Therefore, this study proposes a simple yet effective activation function that facilitates different thresholds and adaptive activations according to the positions of units and the contexts of inputs. Furthermore, the proposed activation function mathematically exhibits a more generalized form of Swish activation function, and thus we denoted it as Adaptive SwisH (ASH). ASH highlights informative features that exhibit large values in the top percentiles in an input, whereas it rectifies low values. Most importantly, ASH exhibits trainable, adaptive, and context-aware properties compared to other activation functions. Furthermore, ASH represents general formula of the previously studied activation function and provides a reasonable mathematical background for the superior performance. To validate the effectiveness and robustness of ASH, we implemented ASH into many deep learning models for various tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation, and image generation. Experimental analysis demonstrates that our activation function can provide the benefits of more accurate prediction and earlier convergence in many deep learning applications.

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed data of interest. These posterior model probabilities (PMPs) are measures of uncertainty, but, when derived from a finite number of observations, are also uncertain themselves. In this paper, we conceptualize distinct levels of uncertainty which arise in BMC. We explore a fully probabilistic framework for quantifying meta-uncertainty, resulting in an applied method to enhance any BMC workflow. Drawing on both Bayesian and frequentist techniques, we represent the uncertainty over the uncertain PMPs via meta-models which combine simulated and observed data into a predictive distribution for PMPs on new data. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed method in the context of conjugate Bayesian regression, likelihood-based inference with Markov chain Monte Carlo, and simulation-based inference with neural networks.

Combining many cross-sectional stock return predictors, as in machine learning, often requires imputing missing values. We compare imputation using the expectation-maximization algorithm with simple ad-hoc methods. Surprisingly, expectation-maximization and ad-hoc methods lead to similar results. This similarity happens because predictors are largely independent: Correlations cluster near zero and more than 10 principal components are required to span 50% of total variance. Independence implies observed predictors are uninformative about missing predictors, making ad-hoc methods valid. In an out-of-sample principal components (PC) regression test, 50 PCs are required to capture equal-weighted long-short expected returns (30 PCs value-weighted), regardless of the imputation method.

High-dimensional matrix-variate time series data are becoming widely available in many scientific fields, such as economics, biology, and meteorology. To achieve significant dimension reduction while preserving the intrinsic matrix structure and temporal dynamics in such data, Wang et al. (2017) proposed a matrix factor model that is shown to provide effective analysis. In this paper, we establish a general framework for incorporating domain or prior knowledge in the matrix factor model through linear constraints. The proposed framework is shown to be useful in achieving parsimonious parameterization, facilitating interpretation of the latent matrix factor, and identifying specific factors of interest. Fully utilizing the prior-knowledge-induced constraints results in more efficient and accurate modeling, inference, dimension reduction as well as a clear and better interpretation of the results. In this paper, constrained, multi-term, and partially constrained factor models for matrix-variate time series are developed, with efficient estimation procedures and their asymptotic properties. We show that the convergence rates of the constrained factor loading matrices are much faster than those of the conventional matrix factor analysis under many situations. Simulation studies are carried out to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method and its associated asymptotic properties. We illustrate the proposed model with three applications, where the constrained matrix-factor models outperform their unconstrained counterparts in the power of variance explanation under the out-of-sample 10-fold cross-validation setting.

We introduce a Fourier-based fast algorithm for Gaussian process regression. It approximates a translationally-invariant covariance kernel by complex exponentials on an equispaced Cartesian frequency grid of $M$ nodes. This results in a weight-space $M\times M$ system matrix with Toeplitz structure, which can thus be applied to a vector in ${\mathcal O}(M \log{M})$ operations via the fast Fourier transform (FFT), independent of the number of data points $N$. The linear system can be set up in ${\mathcal O}(N + M \log{M})$ operations using nonuniform FFTs. This enables efficient massive-scale regression via an iterative solver, even for kernels with fat-tailed spectral densities (large $M$). We include a rigorous error analysis of the kernel approximation, the resulting accuracy (relative to "exact" GP regression), and the condition number. Numerical experiments for squared-exponential and Mat\'ern kernels in one, two and three dimensions often show 1-2 orders of magnitude acceleration over state-of-the-art rank-structured solvers at comparable accuracy. Our method allows 2D Mat\'ern-${\small \frac{3}{2}}$ regression from $N=10^9$ data points to be performed in 2 minutes on a standard desktop, with posterior mean accuracy $10^{-3}$. This opens up spatial statistics applications 100 times larger than previously possible.

Curriculum Reinforcement Learning (CRL) aims to create a sequence of tasks, starting from easy ones and gradually learning towards difficult tasks. In this work, we focus on the idea of framing CRL as interpolations between a source (auxiliary) and a target task distribution. Although existing studies have shown the great potential of this idea, it remains unclear how to formally quantify and generate the movement between task distributions. Inspired by the insights from gradual domain adaptation in semi-supervised learning, we create a natural curriculum by breaking down the potentially large task distributional shift in CRL into smaller shifts. We propose GRADIENT, which formulates CRL as an optimal transport problem with a tailored distance metric between tasks. Specifically, we generate a sequence of task distributions as a geodesic interpolation (i.e., Wasserstein barycenter) between the source and target distributions. Different from many existing methods, our algorithm considers a task-dependent contextual distance metric and is capable of handling nonparametric distributions in both continuous and discrete context settings. In addition, we theoretically show that GRADIENT enables smooth transfer between subsequent stages in the curriculum under certain conditions. We conduct extensive experiments in locomotion and manipulation tasks and show that our proposed GRADIENT achieves higher performance than baselines in terms of learning efficiency and asymptotic performance.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.