We address applied and computational issues for the problem of multiple treatment effect inference under many potential confounders. While there is abundant literature on the harmful effects of omitting relevant controls (under-selection), we show that over-selection can be comparably problematic, introducing substantial variance and a bias related to the non-random over-inclusion controls. We provide a novel empirical Bayes framework to mitigate both under-selection problems in standard high-dimensional methods and over-selection issues in recent proposals, by learning whether each control's inclusion should be encouraged or discouraged. We develop efficient gradient-based and Expectation-Propagation model-fitting algorithms to render the approach practical for a wide class of models. A motivating problem is to estimate the salary gap evolution in recent years in relation to potentially discriminatory characteristics such as gender, race, ethnicity and place of birth. We found that, albeit smaller, some wage differences remained for female and black individuals. A similar trend is observed when analyzing the joint contribution of these factors to deviations from the average salary. Our methodology also showed remarkable estimation robustness to the addition of spurious artificial controls, relative to existing proposals.
相關內容
Machine learning (ML) models need to be frequently retrained on changing datasets in a wide variety of application scenarios, including data valuation and uncertainty quantification. To efficiently retrain the model, linear approximation methods such as influence function have been proposed to estimate the impact of data changes on model parameters. However, these methods become inaccurate for large dataset changes. In this work, we focus on convex learning problems and propose a general framework to learn to estimate optimized model parameters for different training sets using neural networks. We propose to enforce the predicted model parameters to obey optimality conditions and maintain utility through regularization techniques, which significantly improve generalization. Moreover, we rigorously characterize the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the optimizer of convex problems. Empirical results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method in accurate and efficient model parameter estimation compared to the state-of-the-art.
The increasing concerns about data privacy and security drive an emerging field of studying privacy-preserving machine learning from isolated data sources, i.e., federated learning. A class of federated learning, \textit{vertical federated learning}, where different parties hold different features for common users, has a great potential of driving a great variety of business cooperation among enterprises in many fields. In machine learning, decision tree ensembles such as gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) and random forest are widely applied powerful models with high interpretability and modeling efficiency. However, state-of-art vertical federated learning frameworks adapt anonymous features to avoid possible data breaches, makes the interpretability of the model compromised. To address this issue in the inference process, in this paper, we firstly make a problem analysis about the necessity of disclosure meanings of feature to Guest Party in vertical federated learning. Then we find the prediction result of a tree could be expressed as the intersection of results of sub-models of the tree held by all parties. With this key observation, we protect data privacy and allow the disclosure of feature meaning by concealing decision paths and adapt a communication-efficient secure computation method for inference outputs. The advantages of Fed-EINI will be demonstrated through both theoretical analysis and extensive numerical results. We improve the interpretability of the model by disclosing the meaning of features while ensuring efficiency and accuracy.
Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard to evaluate the treatment effect (estimand) for efficacy and safety. According to the recent International Council on Harmonisation (ICH)-E9 addendum (R1), intercurrent events (ICEs) need to be considered when defining an estimand, and principal stratum is one of the five strategies to handle ICEs. Qu et al. (2020, Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research 12:1-18) proposed estimators for the adherer average causal effect (AdACE) for estimating the treatment difference for those who adhere to one or both treatments based on the causal-inference framework, and demonstrated the consistency of those estimators; however, this method requires complex custom programming related to high-dimensional numeric integrations. In this article, we implemented the AdACE estimators using multiple imputation (MI) and constructs CI through bootstrapping. A simulation study showed that the MI-based estimators provided consistent estimators with the nominal coverage probabilities of CIs for the treatment difference for the adherent populations of interest. As an illustrative example, the new method was applied to data from a real clinical trial comparing 2 types of basal insulin for patients with type 1 diabetes.
In this work, we focus our attention on the study of the interplay between the data distribution and Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation. We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis as to why different properties of the data distribution can contribute to regulating sources of algorithmic instability. First, we revisit theoretical bounds on the performance of approximate dynamic programming algorithms. Second, we provide a novel four-state MDP that highlights the impact of the data distribution in the performance of a Q-learning algorithm with function approximation, both in online and offline settings. Finally, we experimentally assess the impact of the data distribution properties in the performance of an offline deep Q-network algorithm. Our results show that: (i) the data distribution needs to possess certain properties in order to robustly learn in an offline setting, namely low distance to the distributions induced by optimal policies of the MDP and high coverage over the state-action space; and (ii) high entropy data distributions can contribute to mitigating sources of algorithmic instability.
Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a disciplined approach towards counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles. We advocate for a model-based search aiming at "optimal" explanations and propose efficient mixed-integer programming approaches. We show that isolation forests can be modeled within our framework to focus the search on plausible explanations with a low outlier score. We provide comprehensive coverage of additional constraints that model important objectives, heterogeneous data types, structural constraints on the feature space, along with resource and actionability restrictions. Our experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed search approach requires a computational effort that is orders of magnitude smaller than previous mathematical programming algorithms. It scales up to large data sets and tree ensembles, where it provides, within seconds, systematic explanations grounded on well-defined models solved to optimality.
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
Transformer-based models are popular for natural language processing (NLP) tasks due to its powerful capacity. As the core component, self-attention module has aroused widespread interests. Attention map visualization of a pre-trained model is one direct method for understanding self-attention mechanism and some common patterns are observed in visualization. Based on these patterns, a series of efficient transformers are proposed with corresponding sparse attention masks. Besides above empirical results, universal approximability of Transformer-based models is also discovered from a theoretical perspective. However, above understanding and analysis of self-attention is based on a pre-trained model. To rethink the importance analysis in self-attention, we delve into dynamics of attention matrix importance during pre-training. One of surprising results is that the diagonal elements in the attention map are the most unimportant compared with other attention positions and we also provide a proof to show these elements can be removed without damaging the model performance. Furthermore, we propose a Differentiable Attention Mask (DAM) algorithm, which can be also applied in guidance of SparseBERT design further. The extensive experiments verify our interesting findings and illustrate the effect of our proposed algorithm.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We study the link between generalization and interference in temporal-difference (TD) learning. Interference is defined as the inner product of two different gradients, representing their alignment. This quantity emerges as being of interest from a variety of observations about neural networks, parameter sharing and the dynamics of learning. We find that TD easily leads to low-interference, under-generalizing parameters, while the effect seems reversed in supervised learning. We hypothesize that the cause can be traced back to the interplay between the dynamics of interference and bootstrapping. This is supported empirically by several observations: the negative relationship between the generalization gap and interference in TD, the negative effect of bootstrapping on interference and the local coherence of targets, and the contrast between the propagation rate of information in TD(0) versus TD($\lambda$) and regression tasks such as Monte-Carlo policy evaluation. We hope that these new findings can guide the future discovery of better bootstrapping methods.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191