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The investigation of mixture models is a key to understand and visualize the distribution of multivariate data. Most mixture models approaches are based on likelihoods, and are not adapted to distribution with finite support or without a well-defined density function. This study proposes the Augmented Quantization method, which is a reformulation of the classical quantization problem but which uses the p-Wasserstein distance. This metric can be computed in very general distribution spaces, in particular with varying supports. The clustering interpretation of quantization is revisited in a more general framework. The performance of Augmented Quantization is first demonstrated through analytical toy problems. Subsequently, it is applied to a practical case study involving river flooding, wherein mixtures of Dirac and Uniform distributions are built in the input space, enabling the identification of the most influential variables.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · MoDELS · 推斷 · 奇異的 · Performer ·
2023 年 12 月 22 日

Fisher's fiducial argument is widely viewed as a failed version of Neyman's theory of confidence limits. But Fisher's goal -- Bayesian-like probabilistic uncertainty quantification without priors -- was more ambitious than Neyman's, and it's not out of reach. I've recently shown that reliable, prior-free probabilistic uncertainty quantification must be grounded in the theory of imprecise probability, and I've put forward a possibility-theoretic solution that achieves it. This has been met with resistance, however, in part due to statisticians' singular focus on confidence limits. Indeed, if imprecision isn't needed to perform confidence-limit-related tasks, then what's the point? In this paper, for a class of practically useful models, I explain specifically why the fiducial argument gives valid confidence limits, i.e., it's the "best probabilistic approximation" of the possibilistic solution I recently advanced. This sheds new light on what the fiducial argument is doing and on what's lost in terms of reliability when imprecision is ignored and the fiducial argument is pushed for more than just confidence limits.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) have driven an explosion of interest about their societal impacts. Much of the discourse around how they will impact social equity has been cautionary or negative, focusing on questions like "how might LLMs be biased and how would we mitigate those biases?" This is a vital discussion: the ways in which AI generally, and LLMs specifically, can entrench biases have been well-documented. But equally vital, and much less discussed, is the more opportunity-focused counterpoint: "what promising applications do LLMs enable that could promote equity?" If LLMs are to enable a more equitable world, it is not enough just to play defense against their biases and failure modes. We must also go on offense, applying them positively to equity-enhancing use cases to increase opportunities for underserved groups and reduce societal discrimination. There are many choices which determine the impact of AI, and a fundamental choice very early in the pipeline is the problems we choose to apply it to. If we focus only later in the pipeline -- making LLMs marginally more fair as they facilitate use cases which intrinsically entrench power -- we will miss an important opportunity to guide them to equitable impacts. Here, we highlight the emerging potential of LLMs to promote equity by presenting four newly possible, promising research directions, while keeping risks and cautionary points in clear view.

This paper presents the first application of the direct parametrisation method for invariant manifolds to a fully coupled multiphysics problem involving the nonlinear vibrations of deformable structures subjected to an electrostatic field. The formulation proposed is intended for model order reduction of electrostatically actuated resonating Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). The continuous problem is first rewritten in a manner that can be directly handled by the parametrisation method, which relies upon automated asymptotic expansions. A new mixed fully Lagrangian formulation is thus proposed which contains only explicit polynomial nonlinearities, which is then discretised in the framework of finite element procedures. Validation is performed on the classical parallel plate configuration, where different formulations using either the general framework, or an approximation of the electrostatic field due to the geometric configuration selected, are compared. Reduced-order models along these formulations are also compared to full-order simulations operated with a time integration approach. Numerical results show a remarkable performance both in terms of accuracy and wealth of nonlinear effects that can be accounted for. In particular, the transition from hardening to softening behaviour of the primary resonance while increasing the constant voltage component of the electric actuation, is recovered. Secondary resonances leading to superharmonic and parametric resonances are also investigated with the reduced-order model.

Automated mark localization in scatter images, greatly helpful for discovering knowledge and understanding enormous document images and reasoning in visual question answering AI systems, is a highly challenging problem because of the ubiquity of overlapping marks. Locating overlapping marks faces many difficulties such as no texture, less contextual information, hallow shape and tiny size. Here, we formulate it as a combinatorial optimization problem on clustering-based re-visualization from a non-training generative perspective, to locate scatter marks by finding the status of multi-variables when an objective function reaches a minimum. The objective function is constructed on difference between binarized scatter images and corresponding generated re-visualization based on their clustering. Fundamentally, re-visualization tries to generate a new scatter graph only taking a rasterized scatter image as an input, and clustering is employed to provide the information for such re-visualization. This method could stably locate severely-overlapping, variable-size and variable-shape marks in scatter images without dependence of any training dataset or reference. Meanwhile, we propose an adaptive variant of simulated annealing which can works on various connected regions. In addition, we especially built a dataset named SML2023 containing hundreds of scatter images with different markers and various levels of overlapping severity, and tested the proposed method and compared it to existing methods. The results show that it can accurately locate most marks in scatter images with different overlapping severity and marker types, with about 0.3 absolute increase on an assignment-cost-based metric in comparison with state-of-the-art methods. This work is of value to data mining on massive web pages and literatures, and shedding new light on image measurement such as bubble counting.

Microring resonators (MRRs) are promising devices for time-delay photonic reservoir computing, but the impact of the different physical effects taking place in the MRRs on the reservoir computing performance is yet to be fully understood. We numerically analyze the impact of linear losses as well as thermo-optic and free-carrier effects relaxation times on the prediction error of the time-series task NARMA-10. We demonstrate the existence of three regions, defined by the input power and the frequency detuning between the optical source and the microring resonance, that reveal the cavity transition from linear to nonlinear regimes. One of these regions offers very low error in time-series prediction under relatively low input power and number of nodes while the other regions either lack nonlinearity or become unstable. This study provides insight into the design of the MRR and the optimization of its physical properties for improving the prediction performance of time-delay reservoir computing.

A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each regime. The model is a mixture of toroidal densities, whose parameters depend on the evolution of a semi-Markov chain, which is in turn modulated by time-varying covariates through a proportional hazards assumption. Parameter estimates are obtained using an EM algorithm that relies on an efficient augmentation of the latent process. The proposal is illustrated on a time series of wind and wave directions recorded during winter.

The generative paradigm has become increasingly important in machine learning and deep learning models. Among popular generative models are normalizing flows, which enable exact likelihood estimation by transforming a base distribution through diffeomorphic transformations. Extending the normalizing flow framework to handle time-indexed flows gave dynamic normalizing flows, a powerful tool to model time series, stochastic processes, and neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this work, we propose a novel variant of dynamic normalizing flows, a Time Changed Normalizing Flow (TCNF), based on time deformation of a Brownian motion which constitutes a versatile and extensive family of Gaussian processes. This approach enables us to effectively model some SDEs, that cannot be modeled otherwise, including standard ones such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and generalizes prior methodologies, leading to improved results and better inference and prediction capability.

EODECA (Engineered Ordinary Differential Equations as Classification Algorithm) is a novel approach at the intersection of machine learning and dynamical systems theory, presenting a unique framework for classification tasks [1]. This method stands out with its dynamical system structure, utilizing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to efficiently handle complex classification challenges. The paper delves into EODECA's dynamical properties, emphasizing its resilience against random perturbations and robust performance across various classification scenarios. Notably, EODECA's design incorporates the ability to embed stable attractors in the phase space, enhancing reliability and allowing for reversible dynamics. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive analysis by expanding on the work [1], and employing a Euler discretization scheme. In particular, we evaluate EODECA's performance across five distinct classification problems, examining its adaptability and efficiency. Significantly, we demonstrate EODECA's effectiveness on the MNIST and Fashion MNIST datasets, achieving impressive accuracies of $98.06\%$ and $88.21\%$, respectively. These results are comparable to those of a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), underscoring EODECA's potential in complex data processing tasks. We further explore the model's learning journey, assessing its evolution in both pre and post training environments and highlighting its ability to navigate towards stable attractors. The study also investigates the invertibility of EODECA, shedding light on its decision-making processes and internal workings. This paper presents a significant step towards a more transparent and robust machine learning paradigm, bridging the gap between machine learning algorithms and dynamical systems methodologies.

Acoustic-to-articulatory inversion (AAI) involves mapping from the acoustic to the articulatory space. Signal-processing features like the MFCCs, have been widely used for the AAI task. For subjects with dysarthric speech, AAI is challenging because of an imprecise and indistinct pronunciation. In this work, we perform AAI for dysarthric speech using representations from pre-trained self-supervised learning (SSL) models. We demonstrate the impact of different pre-trained features on this challenging AAI task, at low-resource conditions. In addition, we also condition x-vectors to the extracted SSL features to train a BLSTM network. In the seen case, we experiment with three AAI training schemes (subject-specific, pooled, and fine-tuned). The results, consistent across training schemes, reveal that DeCoAR, in the fine-tuned scheme, achieves a relative improvement of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) by ~1.81% and ~4.56% for healthy controls and patients, respectively, over MFCCs. We observe similar average trends for different SSL features in the unseen case. Overall, SSL networks like wav2vec, APC, and DeCoAR, trained with feature reconstruction or future timestep prediction tasks, perform well in predicting dysarthric articulatory trajectories.

Disability insurance claims are often affected by lengthy reporting delays and adjudication processes. The classic multistate life insurance modeling framework is ill-suited to handle such information delays since the cash flow and available information can no longer be based on the biometric multistate process determining the contractual payments. We propose a new individual reserving model for disability insurance schemes which describes the claim evolution in real-time. Under suitable independence assumptions between the available information and the underlying biometric multistate process, we show that these new reserves may be calculated as natural modifications of the classic reserves. We propose suitable parametric estimators for the model constituents and a real data application shows the practical relevance of our concepts and results.

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