The generative paradigm has become increasingly important in machine learning and deep learning models. Among popular generative models are normalizing flows, which enable exact likelihood estimation by transforming a base distribution through diffeomorphic transformations. Extending the normalizing flow framework to handle time-indexed flows gave dynamic normalizing flows, a powerful tool to model time series, stochastic processes, and neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this work, we propose a novel variant of dynamic normalizing flows, a Time Changed Normalizing Flow (TCNF), based on time deformation of a Brownian motion which constitutes a versatile and extensive family of Gaussian processes. This approach enables us to effectively model some SDEs, that cannot be modeled otherwise, including standard ones such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and generalizes prior methodologies, leading to improved results and better inference and prediction capability.
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Large language models (LLMs) have been extensively studied for their abilities to generate convincing natural language sequences, however their utility for quantitative information retrieval is less well understood. In this paper we explore the feasibility of LLMs as a mechanism for quantitative knowledge retrieval to aid data analysis tasks such as elicitation of prior distributions for Bayesian models and imputation of missing data. We present a prompt engineering framework, treating an LLM as an interface to a latent space of scientific literature, comparing responses in different contexts and domains against more established approaches. Implications and challenges of using LLMs as 'experts' are discussed.
Large pre-trained language models have recently been expanded and applied to programming language tasks with great success, often through further pre-training of a strictly-natural language model--where training sequences typically contain both natural and (linearised) programming language. Such approaches effectively map both modalities of the sequence into the same embedding space. However, programming language keywords (e.g. "while") often have very strictly defined semantics. As such, transfer learning from their natural language usage may not necessarily be beneficial to their code application and vise versa. Assuming an already pre-trained language model, in this work we investigate how sequence tokens can be adapted and represented differently, depending on which modality they belong to, and to the ultimate benefit of the downstream task. We experiment with separating embedding spaces between modalities during further model pre-training with modality-relative training objectives. We focus on text-to-code generation and observe consistent improvements across two backbone models and two test sets, measuring pass@$k$ and a novel incremental variation.
The evaluation of text-generative vision-language models is a challenging yet crucial endeavor. By addressing the limitations of existing Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmarks and proposing innovative evaluation methodologies, our research seeks to advance our understanding of these models' capabilities. We propose a novel VQA benchmark based on well-known visual classification datasets which allows a granular evaluation of text-generative vision-language models and their comparison with discriminative vision-language models. To improve the assessment of coarse answers on fine-grained classification tasks, we suggest using the semantic hierarchy of the label space to ask automatically generated follow-up questions about the ground-truth category. Finally, we compare traditional NLP and LLM-based metrics for the problem of evaluating model predictions given ground-truth answers. We perform a human evaluation study upon which we base our decision on the final metric. We apply our benchmark to a suite of vision-language models and show a detailed comparison of their abilities on object, action, and attribute classification. Our contributions aim to lay the foundation for more precise and meaningful assessments, facilitating targeted progress in the exciting field of vision-language modeling.
Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. To address this problem, we proposed the MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation (MRBEE) that can infer unbiased causal relationships with many weak IVs and account for horizontal pleiotropy simultaneously. While the practical significance of MRBEE was demonstrated in our parallel work (Lorincz-Comi (2023)), this paper established the statistical theories of multivariable IVW and MRBEE with many weak IVs. First, we showed that the bias of the multivariable IVW estimate is caused by the error-in-variable bias, whose scale and direction are inflated and influenced by weak instrument bias and sample overlaps of exposures and outcome GWAS cohorts, respectively. Second, we investigated the asymptotic properties of multivariable IVW and MRBEE, showing that MRBEE outperforms multivariable IVW regarding unbiasedness of causal effect estimation and asymptotic validity of causal inference. Finally, we applied MRBEE to examine myopia and revealed that education and outdoor activity are causal to myopia whereas indoor activity is not.
Multi-product formulas (MPF) are linear combinations of Trotter circuits offering high-quality simulation of Hamiltonian time evolution with fewer Trotter steps. Here we report two contributions aimed at making multi-product formulas more viable for near-term quantum simulations. First, we extend the theory of Trotter error with commutator scaling developed by Childs, Su, Tran et al. to multi-product formulas. Our result implies that multi-product formulas can achieve a quadratic reduction of Trotter error in 1-norm (nuclear norm) on arbitrary time intervals compared with the regular product formulas without increasing the required circuit depth or qubit connectivity. The number of circuit repetitions grows only by a constant factor. Second, we introduce dynamic multi-product formulas with time-dependent coefficients chosen to minimize a certain efficiently computable proxy for the Trotter error. We use a minimax estimation method to make dynamic multi-product formulas robust to uncertainty from algorithmic errors, sampling and hardware noise. We call this method Minimax MPF and we provide a rigorous bound on its error.
We develop optimal algorithms for learning undirected Gaussian trees and directed Gaussian polytrees from data. We consider both problems of distribution learning (i.e. in KL distance) and structure learning (i.e. exact recovery). The first approach is based on the Chow-Liu algorithm, and learns an optimal tree-structured distribution efficiently. The second approach is a modification of the PC algorithm for polytrees that uses partial correlation as a conditional independence tester for constraint-based structure learning. We derive explicit finite-sample guarantees for both approaches, and show that both approaches are optimal by deriving matching lower bounds. Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to compare the performance of various algorithms, providing further insights and empirical evidence.
We provide a new theoretical framework for the variable-step deferred correction (DC) methods based on the well-known BDF2 formula. By using the discrete orthogonal convolution kernels, some high-order BDF2-DC methods are proven to be stable on arbitrary time grids according to the recent definition of stability (SINUM, 60: 2253-2272). It significantly relaxes the existing step-ratio restrictions for the BDF2-DC methods (BIT, 62: 1789-1822). The associated sharp error estimates are established by taking the numerical effects of the starting approximations into account, and they suggest that the BDF2-DC methods have no aftereffect, that is, the lower-order starting scheme for the BDF2 scheme will not cause a loss in the accuracy of the high-order BDF2-DC methods. Extensive tests on the graded and random time meshes are presented to support the new theory.
We introduce a method for computing immediately human interpretable yet accurate classifiers from tabular data. The classifiers obtained are short DNF-formulas, computed via first discretizing the original data to Boolean form and then using feature selection coupled with a very fast algorithm for producing the best possible Boolean classifier for the setting. We demonstrate the approach via 14 experiments, obtaining results with accuracies mainly similar to ones obtained via random forests, XGBoost, and existing results for the same datasets in the literature. In several cases, our approach in fact outperforms the reference results in relation to accuracy, even though the main objective of our study is the immediate interpretability of our classifiers. We also prove a new result on the probability that the classifier we obtain from real-life data corresponds to the ideally best classifier with respect to the background distribution the data comes from.
We propose a new loss function for supervised and physics-informed training of neural networks and operators that incorporates a posteriori error estimate. More specifically, during the training stage, the neural network learns additional physical fields that lead to rigorous error majorants after a computationally cheap postprocessing stage. Theoretical results are based upon the theory of functional a posteriori error estimates, which allows for the systematic construction of such loss functions for a diverse class of practically relevant partial differential equations. From the numerical side, we demonstrate on a series of elliptic problems that for a variety of architectures and approaches (physics-informed neural networks, physics-informed neural operators, neural operators, and classical architectures in the regression and physics-informed settings), we can reach better or comparable accuracy and in addition to that cheaply recover high-quality upper bounds on the error after training.
Objective: Prediction models are popular in medical research and practice. By predicting an outcome of interest for specific patients, these models may help inform difficult treatment decisions, and are often hailed as the poster children for personalized, data-driven healthcare. Many prediction models are deployed for decision support based on their prediction accuracy in validation studies. We investigate whether this is a safe and valid approach. Materials and Methods: We show that using prediction models for decision making can lead to harmful decisions, even when the predictions exhibit good discrimination after deployment. These models are harmful self-fulfilling prophecies: their deployment harms a group of patients but the worse outcome of these patients does not invalidate the predictive power of the model. Results: Our main result is a formal characterization of a set of such prediction models. Next we show that models that are well calibrated before and after deployment are useless for decision making as they made no change in the data distribution. Discussion: Our results point to the need to revise standard practices for validation, deployment and evaluation of prediction models that are used in medical decisions. Conclusion: Outcome prediction models can yield harmful self-fulfilling prophecies when used for decision making, a new perspective on prediction model development, deployment and monitoring is needed.
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