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Neural-network-based single image depth prediction (SIDP) is a challenging task where the goal is to predict the scene's per-pixel depth at test time. Since the problem, by definition, is ill-posed, the fundamental goal is to come up with an approach that can reliably model the scene depth from a set of training examples. In the pursuit of perfect depth estimation, most existing state-of-the-art learning techniques predict a single scalar depth value per-pixel. Yet, it is well-known that the trained model has accuracy limits and can predict imprecise depth. Therefore, an SIDP approach must be mindful of the expected depth variations in the model's prediction at test time. Accordingly, we introduce an approach that performs continuous modeling of per-pixel depth, where we can predict and reason about the per-pixel depth and its distribution. To this end, we model per-pixel scene depth using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Moreover, contrary to the existing uncertainty modeling methods -- in the same spirit, where per-pixel depth is assumed to be independent, we introduce per-pixel covariance modeling that encodes its depth dependency w.r.t all the scene points. Unfortunately, per-pixel depth covariance modeling leads to a computationally expensive continuous loss function, which we solve efficiently using the learned low-rank approximation of the overall covariance matrix. Notably, when tested on benchmark datasets such as KITTI, NYU, and SUN-RGB-D, the SIDP model obtained by optimizing our loss function shows state-of-the-art results. Our method's accuracy (named MG) is among the top on the KITTI depth-prediction benchmark leaderboard.

The Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) is a recently proposed metric for real-time remote monitoring systems. In particular, AoII measures the time the information at the monitor is incorrect, weighted by the magnitude of this incorrectness, thereby combining the notions of freshness and distortion. This paper addresses the definition of an AoII-optimal transmission policy in a discrete-time communication scheme with a resource constraint and a hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocol. Considering an $N$-ary symmetric Markov source, the problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon average-cost constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). The source model is characterized by the cardinality of the state space and the probability of staying at the same state. Interestingly, it is proved that under some conditions, the optimal transmission policy is to never transmit. This reveals that there exists a region of the source dynamics where communication is inadequate in reducing the AoII. Elsewhere, there exists an optimal transmission policy, which is a randomized mixture of two discrete threshold-based policies that randomize at one state. The optimal threshold and the randomization component are derived analytically. Numerical results illustrate the impact of source dynamics, channel conditions, and the resource constraint on the average AoII.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Background: We aimed to design a Bayesian adaption trial through extensive simulations to determine values for key design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the expected sample size. The complexity of the proposed outcome and analysis meant that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were required, resulting in an infeasible computational burden. Thus, we leveraged the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) algorithm, a fast approximation method, to ensure the feasibility of these simulations. Methods: We simulated Bayesian adaptive two-arm superiority trials that stratified participants into two disease severity states. The outcome was analyzed with proportional odds logistic regression. Trials were stopped for superiority or futility, separately for each state. We calculated the type I error and power across 64 scenarios that varied the stopping thresholds and the minimum sample size before commencing adaptive analyses. We incorporated dynamic borrowing and used INLA to compute the posterior distributions at each adaptive analysis. Designs that maintained a type I error below 5%, a power above 80%, and a feasible mean sample size were then evaluated across 22 scenarios that varied the odds ratios for the two severity states. Results: Power generally increased as the initial sample size and the threshold for declaring futility increased. Two designs were selected for further analysis. In the comprehensive simulations, the one design had a higher chance of reaching a trial conclusion before the maximum sample size and higher probability of declaring superiority when appropriate without a substantial increase in sample size for the more realistic scenarios and was selected as the trial design. Conclusions: We designed a Bayesian adaptive trial to evaluate novel strategies for ventilation using the INLA algorithm to and optimize the trial design through simulation.

Completely random measures (CRMs) provide a broad class of priors, arguably, the most popular, for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) analysis of trait allocations. As a peculiar property, CRM priors lead to predictive distributions that share the following common structure: for fixed prior's parameters, a new data point exhibits a Poisson (random) number of ``new'' traits, i.e., not appearing in the sample, which depends on the sampling information only through the sample size. While the Poisson posterior distribution is appealing for analytical tractability and ease of interpretation, its independence from the sampling information is a critical drawback, as it makes the posterior distribution of ``new'' traits completely determined by the estimation of the unknown prior's parameters. In this paper, we introduce the class of transform-scaled process (T-SP) priors as a tool to enrich the posterior distribution of ``new'' traits arising from CRM priors, while maintaining the same analytical tractability and ease of interpretation. In particular, we present a framework for posterior analysis of trait allocations under T-SP priors, showing that Stable T-SP priors, i.e., T-SP priors built from Stable CRMs, lead to predictive distributions such that, for fixed prior's parameters, a new data point displays a negative-Binomial (random) number of ``new'' traits, which depends on the sampling information through the number of distinct traits and the sample size. Then, by relying on a hierarchical version of T-SP priors, we extend our analysis to the more general setting of trait allocations with multiple groups of data or subpopulations. The empirical effectiveness of our methods is demonstrated through numerical experiments and applications to real data.

This paper addresses the challenge of generating optimal vehicle flow at the macroscopic level. Although several studies have focused on optimizing vehicle flow, little attention has been given to ensuring it can be practically achieved. To overcome this issue, we propose a route-recovery and eco-driving strategy for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that guarantees optimal flow generation. Our approach involves identifying the optimal vehicle flow that minimizes total travel time, given the constant travel demands in urban areas. We then develop a heuristic route-recovery algorithm to assign routes to CAVs that satisfy all travel demands while maintaining the optimal flow. Our method lets CAVs arrive at each road segment at their desired arrival time based on their assigned route and desired flow. In addition, we present an efficient coordination framework to minimize the energy consumption of CAVs and prevent collisions while crossing intersections. The proposed method can effectively generate optimal vehicle flow and potentially reduce travel time and energy consumption in urban areas.

The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development in an area. However, a crucial challenge in traffic flow forecasting is the slow shifting in temporal peaks between daily and weekly cycles, resulting in the nonstationarity of the traffic flow signal and leading to difficulty in accurate forecasting. To address this challenge, we propose a slow shifting concerned machine learning method for traffic flow forecasting, which includes two parts. First, we take advantage of Empirical Mode Decomposition as the feature engineering to alleviate the nonstationarity of traffic flow data, yielding a series of stationary components. Second, due to the superiority of Long-Short-Term-Memory networks in capturing temporal features, an advanced traffic flow forecasting model is developed by taking the stationary components as inputs. Finally, we apply this method on a benchmark of real-world data and provide a comparison with other existing methods. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-art results by 14.55% and 62.56% using the metrics of root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, respectively.

The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.