In novelty detection, the objective is to determine whether the test sample contains any outliers, using a sample of controls (inliers). This involves many-to-one comparisons of individual test points against the control sample. A recent approach applies the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to the conformal $p$-values resulting from these comparisons, ensuring false discovery rate control. In this paper, we suggest using Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests for the comparisons and subsequently applying the closed testing principle to derive post-hoc confidence bounds for the number of outliers in any subset of the test sample. We revisit an elegant result that under a nonparametric alternative known as Lehmann's alternative, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney is locally most powerful among rank tests. By combining this result with a simple observation, we demonstrate that the proposed procedure is more powerful for the null hypothesis of no outliers than the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure applied to conformal $p$-values.
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Distinguishing two classes of candidate models is a fundamental and practically important problem in statistical inference. Error rate control is crucial to the logic but, in complex nonparametric settings, such guarantees can be difficult to achieve, especially when the stopping rule that determines the data collection process is not available. In this paper we develop a novel e-process construction that leverages the so-called predictive recursion (PR) algorithm designed to rapidly and recursively fit nonparametric mixture models. The resulting PRe-process affords anytime valid inference uniformly over stopping rules and is shown to be efficient in the sense that it achieves the maximal growth rate under the alternative relative to the mixture model being fit by PR. In the special case of testing for a log-concave density, the PRe-process test is computationally simpler and faster, more stable, and no less efficient compared to a recently proposed anytime valid test.
Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state-of-the-art.
We introduce a flexible method to simultaneously infer both the drift and volatility functions of a discretely observed scalar diffusion. We introduce spline bases to represent these functions and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer, a posteriori, the coefficients of these functions in the spline basis. A key innovation is that we use spline bases to model transformed versions of the drift and volatility functions rather than the functions themselves. The output of the algorithm is a posterior sample of plausible drift and volatility functions that are not constrained to any particular parametric family. The flexibility of this approach provides practitioners a powerful investigative tool, allowing them to posit a variety of parametric models to better capture the underlying dynamics of their processes of interest. We illustrate the versatility of our method by applying it to challenging datasets from finance, paleoclimatology, and astrophysics. In view of the parametric diffusion models widely employed in the literature for those examples, some of our results are surprising since they call into question some aspects of these models.
Agents navigating in 3D environments require some form of memory, which should hold a compact and actionable representation of the history of observations useful for decision taking and planning. In most end-to-end learning approaches the representation is latent and usually does not have a clearly defined interpretation, whereas classical robotics addresses this with scene reconstruction resulting in some form of map, usually estimated with geometry and sensor models and/or learning. In this work we propose to learn an actionable representation of the scene independently of the targeted downstream task and without explicitly optimizing reconstruction. The learned representation is optimized by a blind auxiliary agent trained to navigate with it on multiple short sub episodes branching out from a waypoint and, most importantly, without any direct visual observation. We argue and show that the blindness property is important and forces the (trained) latent representation to be the only means for planning. With probing experiments we show that the learned representation optimizes navigability and not reconstruction. On downstream tasks we show that it is robust to changes in distribution, in particular the sim2real gap, which we evaluate with a real physical robot in a real office building, significantly improving performance.
What is the best paradigm to recognize objects -- discriminative inference (fast but potentially prone to shortcut learning) or using a generative model (slow but potentially more robust)? We build on recent advances in generative modeling that turn text-to-image models into classifiers. This allows us to study their behavior and to compare them against discriminative models and human psychophysical data. We report four intriguing emergent properties of generative classifiers: they show a record-breaking human-like shape bias (99% for Imagen), near human-level out-of-distribution accuracy, state-of-the-art alignment with human classification errors, and they understand certain perceptual illusions. Our results indicate that while the current dominant paradigm for modeling human object recognition is discriminative inference, zero-shot generative models approximate human object recognition data surprisingly well.
We present ReCAT, a recursive composition augmented Transformer that is able to explicitly model hierarchical syntactic structures of raw texts without relying on gold trees during both learning and inference. Existing research along this line restricts data to follow a hierarchical tree structure and thus lacks inter-span communications. To overcome the problem, we propose a novel contextual inside-outside (CIO) layer that learns contextualized representations of spans through bottom-up and top-down passes, where a bottom-up pass forms representations of high-level spans by composing low-level spans, while a top-down pass combines information inside and outside a span. By stacking several CIO layers between the embedding layer and the attention layers in Transformer, the ReCAT model can perform both deep intra-span and deep inter-span interactions, and thus generate multi-grained representations fully contextualized with other spans. Moreover, the CIO layers can be jointly pre-trained with Transformers, making ReCAT enjoy scaling ability, strong performance, and interpretability at the same time. We conduct experiments on various sentence-level and span-level tasks. Evaluation results indicate that ReCAT can significantly outperform vanilla Transformer models on all span-level tasks and baselines that combine recursive networks with Transformers on natural language inference tasks. More interestingly, the hierarchical structures induced by ReCAT exhibit strong consistency with human-annotated syntactic trees, indicating good interpretability brought by the CIO layers.
The standard paired-sample testing approach in the multidimensional setting applies multiple univariate tests on the individual features, followed by p-value adjustments. Such an approach suffers when the data carry numerous features. A number of studies have shown that classification accuracy can be seen as a proxy for two-sample testing. However, neither theoretical foundations nor practical recipes have been proposed so far on how this strategy could be extended to multidimensional paired-sample testing. In this work, we put forward the idea that scoring functions can be produced by the decision rules defined by the perpendicular bisecting hyperplanes of the line segments connecting each pair of instances. Then, the optimal scoring function can be obtained by the pseudomedian of those rules, which we estimate by extending naturally the Hodges-Lehmann estimator. We accordingly propose a framework of a two-step testing procedure. First, we estimate the bisecting hyperplanes for each pair of instances and an aggregated rule derived through the Hodges-Lehmann estimator. The paired samples are scored by this aggregated rule to produce a unidimensional representation. Second, we perform a Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the obtained representation. Our experiments indicate that our approach has substantial performance gains in testing accuracy compared to the traditional multivariate and multiple testing, while at the same time estimates each feature's contribution to the final result.
Flexible estimation of the mean outcome under a treatment regimen (i.e., value function) is the key step toward personalized medicine. We define our target parameter as a conditional value function given a set of baseline covariates which we refer to as a stratum based value function. We focus on semiparametric class of decision rules and propose a sieve based nonparametric covariate adjusted regimen-response curve estimator within that class. Our work contributes in several ways. First, we propose an inverse probability weighted nonparametrically efficient estimator of the smoothed regimen-response curve function. We show that asymptotic linearity is achieved when the nuisance functions are undersmoothed sufficiently. Asymptotic and finite sample criteria for undersmoothing are proposed. Second, using Gaussian process theory, we propose simultaneous confidence intervals for the smoothed regimen-response curve function. Third, we provide consistency and convergence rate for the optimizer of the regimen-response curve estimator; this enables us to estimate an optimal semiparametric rule. The latter is important as the optimizer corresponds with the optimal dynamic treatment regimen. Some finite-sample properties are explored with simulations.
Minimization of cortical prediction errors is believed to be a key canonical computation of the cerebral cortex underlying perception, action and learning. However, it is still unclear how the cortex should form and use knowledge about uncertainty in this process of prediction error minimization. Here we derive neural dynamics minimizing prediction errors under the assumption that cortical areas must not only predict the activity in other areas and sensory streams, but also jointly estimate the precision of their predictions. This leads to a dynamic modulatory balancing of cortical streams based on context-dependent precision estimates. Moreover, the theory predicts the existence of second-order prediction errors, i.e. errors on precision estimates, computed and propagated through the cortical hierarchy alongside classical prediction errors. These second-order errors are used to learn weights of synapses responsible for precision estimation through an error-correcting synaptic learning rule. Finally, we propose a mapping of the theory to cortical circuitry.
In recent years, object detection has experienced impressive progress. Despite these improvements, there is still a significant gap in the performance between the detection of small and large objects. We analyze the current state-of-the-art model, Mask-RCNN, on a challenging dataset, MS COCO. We show that the overlap between small ground-truth objects and the predicted anchors is much lower than the expected IoU threshold. We conjecture this is due to two factors; (1) only a few images are containing small objects, and (2) small objects do not appear enough even within each image containing them. We thus propose to oversample those images with small objects and augment each of those images by copy-pasting small objects many times. It allows us to trade off the quality of the detector on large objects with that on small objects. We evaluate different pasting augmentation strategies, and ultimately, we achieve 9.7\% relative improvement on the instance segmentation and 7.1\% on the object detection of small objects, compared to the current state of the art method on MS COCO.
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