Spatial statistics is traditionally based on stationary models on $\mathbb{R^d}$ like Mat\'ern fields. The adaptation of traditional spatial statistical methods, originally designed for stationary models in Euclidean spaces, to effectively model phenomena on linear networks such as stream systems and urban road networks is challenging. The current study aims to analyze the incidence of traffic accidents on road networks using three different methodologies and compare the model performance for each methodology. Initially, we analyzed the application of spatial triangulation precisely on road networks instead of traditional continuous regions. However, this approach posed challenges in areas with complex boundaries, leading to the emergence of artificial spatial dependencies. To address this, we applied an alternative computational method to construct nonstationary barrier models. Finally, we explored a recently proposed class of Gaussian processes on compact metric graphs, the Whittle-Mat\'ern fields, defined by a fractional SPDE on the metric graph. The latter fields are a natural extension of Gaussian fields with Mat\'ern covariance functions on Euclidean domains to non-Euclidean metric graph settings. A ten-year period (2010-2019) of daily traffic-accident records from Barcelona, Spain have been used to evaluate the three models referred above. While comparing model performance we observed that the Whittle-Mat\'ern fields defined directly on the network outperformed the network triangulation and barrier models. Due to their flexibility, the Whittle-Mat\'ern fields can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems on linear networks such as spatio-temporal modeling of water contamination in stream networks or modeling air quality or accidents on urban road networks.
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Networking：IFIP International Conferences on Networking。
Explanation：國際網絡會議。
Publisher：IFIP。
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We consider the problem of approximating a function from $L^2$ by an element of a given $m$-dimensional space $V_m$, associated with some feature map $\varphi$, using evaluations of the function at random points $x_1,\dots,x_n$. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features $\varphi(x_i)$. We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples $n = O(m\log(m))$, that means that the expected $L^2$ error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in $L^2$. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space $H$ continuously embedded in $L^2$, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the $H$-norm. This includes the cases of functions from $L^\infty$ or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.
We demonstrate that large language models can produce reasonable numerical ratings of the logical consistency of claims. We also outline a mathematical approach based on sheaf theory for lifting such ratings to hypertexts such as laws, jurisprudence, and social media and evaluating their consistency globally. This approach is a promising avenue to increasing consistency in and of government, as well as to combating mis- and disinformation and related ills.
In this paper we consider an initial-boundary value problem with a Caputo time derivative of order $\alpha\in(0,1)$. The solution typically exhibits a weak singularity near the initial time and this causes a reduction in the orders of convergence of standard schemes. To deal with this singularity, the solution is computed with a fitted difference scheme on a graded mesh. The convergence of this scheme is analysed using a discrete maximum principle and carefully chosen barrier functions. Sharp error estimates are proved, which show an enhancement in the convergence rate compared with the standard L1 approximation on uniform meshes, and also indicate an optimal choice for the mesh grading. This optimal mesh grading is less severe than the optimal grading for the standard L1 scheme. Furthermore, the dependence of the error on the final time forms part of our error estimate. Numerical experiments are presented which corroborate our theoretical results.
The Crank-Nicolson (CN) method is a well-known time integrator for evolutionary partial differential equations (PDEs) arising in many real-world applications. Since the solution at any time depends on the solution at previous time steps, the CN method will be inherently difficult to parallelize. In this paper, we consider a parallel method for the solution of evolutionary PDEs with the CN scheme. Using an all-at-once approach, we can solve for all time steps simultaneously using a parallelizable over time preconditioner within a standard iterative method. Due to the diagonalization of the proposed preconditioner, we can prove that most eigenvalues of preconditioned matrices are equal to 1 and the others lie in the set: $\left\{z\in\mathbb{C}: 1/(1 + \alpha) < |z| < 1/(1 - \alpha)~{\rm and}~\Re{e}(z) > 0\right\}$, where $0 < \alpha < 1$ is a free parameter. Meanwhile, the efficient implementation of this proposed preconditioner is described and a mesh-independent convergence rate of the preconditioned GMRES method is derived under certain conditions. Finally, we will verify our theoretical findings via numerical experiments on financial option pricing partial differential equations.
We present new Neumann-Neumann algorithms based on a time domain decomposition applied to unconstrained parabolic optimal control problems. After a spatial semi-discretization, the Lagrange multiplier approach provides a coupled forward-backward optimality system, which can be solved using a time domain decomposition. Due to the forward-backward structure of the optimality system, nine variants can be found for the Neumann-Neumann algorithms. We analyze their convergence behavior and determine the optimal relaxation parameter for each algorithm. Our analysis reveals that the most natural algorithms are actually only good smoothers, and there are better choices which lead to efficient solvers. We illustrate our analysis with numerical experiments.
It is known that standard stochastic Galerkin methods encounter challenges when solving partial differential equations with high-dimensional random inputs, which are typically caused by the large number of stochastic basis functions required. It becomes crucial to properly choose effective basis functions, such that the dimension of the stochastic approximation space can be reduced. In this work, we focus on the stochastic Galerkin approximation associated with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC), and explore the gPC expansion based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. A concise form of the gPC expansion is presented for each component function of the ANOVA expansion, and an adaptive ANOVA procedure is proposed to construct the overall stochastic Galerkin system. Numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed adaptive ANOVA stochastic Galerkin method for both diffusion and Helmholtz problems.
The four-parameter generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GBII) has been proposed for modelling insurance losses with heavy-tailed features. The aim of this paper is to present a parametric composite GBII regression modelling by splicing two GBII distributions using mode matching method. It is designed for simultaneous modeling of small and large claims and capturing the policyholder heterogeneity by introducing the covariates into the location parameter. In such cases, the threshold that splits two GBII distributions varies across individuals policyholders based on their risk features. The proposed regression modelling also contains a wide range of insurance loss distributions as the head and the tail respectively and provides the close-formed expressions for parameter estimation and model prediction. A simulation study is conducted to show the accuracy of the proposed estimation method and the flexibility of the regressions. Some illustrations of the applicability of the new class of distributions and regressions are provided with a Danish fire losses data set and a Chinese medical insurance claims data set, comparing with the results of competing models from the literature.
We consider the community detection problem in a sparse $q$-uniform hypergraph $G$, assuming that $G$ is generated according to the Hypergraph Stochastic Block Model (HSBM). We prove that a spectral method based on the non-backtracking operator for hypergraphs works with high probability down to the generalized Kesten-Stigum detection threshold conjectured by Angelini et al. (2015). We characterize the spectrum of the non-backtracking operator for the sparse HSBM and provide an efficient dimension reduction procedure using the Ihara-Bass formula for hypergraphs. As a result, community detection for the sparse HSBM on $n$ vertices can be reduced to an eigenvector problem of a $2n\times 2n$ non-normal matrix constructed from the adjacency matrix and the degree matrix of the hypergraph. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provable and efficient spectral algorithm that achieves the conjectured threshold for HSBMs with $r$ blocks generated according to a general symmetric probability tensor.
State-of-the-art methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models are (a) conditional sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) algorithms; (b) sophisticated 'classical' MCMC algorithms like MALA, or mGRAD from Titsias and Papaspiliopoulos (2018, arXiv:1610.09641v3 [stat.ML]). The former propose $N$ particles at each time step to exploit the model's 'decorrelation-over-time' property and thus scale favourably with the time horizon, $T$ , but break down if the dimension of the latent states, $D$, is large. The latter leverage gradient-/prior-informed local proposals to scale favourably with $D$ but exhibit sub-optimal scalability with $T$ due to a lack of model-structure exploitation. We introduce methods which combine the strengths of both approaches. The first, Particle-MALA, spreads $N$ particles locally around the current state using gradient information, thus extending MALA to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. The second, Particle-mGRAD, additionally incorporates (conditionally) Gaussian prior dynamics into the proposal, thus extending the mGRAD algorithm to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. We prove that Particle-mGRAD interpolates between CSMC and Particle-MALA, resolving the 'tuning problem' of choosing between CSMC (superior for highly informative prior dynamics) and Particle-MALA (superior for weakly informative prior dynamics). We similarly extend other 'classical' MCMC approaches like auxiliary MALA, aGRAD, and preconditioned Crank-Nicolson-Langevin (PCNL) to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. In experiments, for both highly and weakly informative prior dynamics, our methods substantially improve upon both CSMC and sophisticated 'classical' MCMC approaches.
A new sparse semiparametric model is proposed, which incorporates the influence of two functional random variables in a scalar response in a flexible and interpretable manner. One of the functional covariates is included through a single-index structure, while the other is included linearly through the high-dimensional vector formed by its discretised observations. For this model, two new algorithms are presented for selecting relevant variables in the linear part and estimating the model. Both procedures utilise the functional origin of linear covariates. Finite sample experiments demonstrated the scope of application of both algorithms: the first method is a fast algorithm that provides a solution (without loss in predictive ability) for the significant computational time required by standard variable selection methods for estimating this model, and the second algorithm completes the set of relevant linear covariates provided by the first, thus improving its predictive efficiency. Some asymptotic results theoretically support both procedures. A real data application demonstrated the applicability of the presented methodology from a predictive perspective in terms of the interpretability of outputs and low computational cost.
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