In empirical studies, the data usually don't include all the variables of interest in an economic model. This paper shows the identification of unobserved variables in observations at the population level. When the observables are distinct in each observation, there exists a function mapping from the observables to the unobservables. Such a function guarantees the uniqueness of the latent value in each observation. The key lies in the identification of the joint distribution of observables and unobservables from the distribution of observables. The joint distribution of observables and unobservables then reveal the latent value in each observation. Three examples of this result are discussed.
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Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find an optimal policy for sequential decision-making using a pre-collected dataset, without further interaction with the environment. Recent theoretical progress has focused on developing sample-efficient offline RL algorithms with various relaxed assumptions on data coverage and function approximators, especially to handle the case with excessively large state-action spaces. Among them, the framework based on the linear-programming (LP) reformulation of Markov decision processes has shown promise: it enables sample-efficient offline RL with function approximation, under only partial data coverage and realizability assumptions on the function classes, with favorable computational tractability. In this work, we revisit the LP framework for offline RL, and provide a new reformulation that advances the existing results in several aspects, relaxing certain assumptions and achieving optimal statistical rates in terms of sample size. Our key enabler is to introduce proper constraints in the reformulation, instead of using any regularization as in the literature, also with careful choices of the function classes and initial state distributions. We hope our insights bring into light the use of LP formulations and the induced primal-dual minimax optimization, in offline RL.
Learning causal relationships between variables is a fundamental task in causal inference and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular choice to represent the causal relationships. As one can recover a causal graph only up to its Markov equivalence class from observations, interventions are often used for the recovery task. Interventions are costly in general and it is important to design algorithms that minimize the number of interventions performed. In this work, we study the problem of identifying the smallest set of interventions required to learn the causal relationships between a subset of edges (target edges). Under the assumptions of faithfulness, causal sufficiency, and ideal interventions, we study this problem in two settings: when the underlying ground truth causal graph is known (subset verification) and when it is unknown (subset search). For the subset verification problem, we provide an efficient algorithm to compute a minimum sized interventional set; we further extend these results to bounded size non-atomic interventions and node-dependent interventional costs. For the subset search problem, in the worst case, we show that no algorithm (even with adaptivity or randomization) can achieve an approximation ratio that is asymptotically better than the vertex cover of the target edges when compared with the subset verification number. This result is surprising as there exists a logarithmic approximation algorithm for the search problem when we wish to recover the whole causal graph. To obtain our results, we prove several interesting structural properties of interventional causal graphs that we believe have applications beyond the subset verification/search problems studied here.
This paper proposes a novel approach for computing the meta distribution of the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) for the downlink transmission in a wireless network with Rayleigh fading. The novel approach relies on an approximation mix of exact and mean-field analysis of interference (dominant interferer-based approximation) to reduce the complexity of analysis and enhance tractability. In particular, the proposed approximation omits the need to compute the first or the second moment of the SINR that is used in the beta approximation typically adopted in the literature but requires of computing the joint distance distributions. We first derive the proposed approximation based on a Poisson point process (PPP) network with a standard path-loss and Rayleigh fading and then illustrate its accuracy and operability in another four widely used point processes: Poisson bipolar network, Mat\'{e}rn cluster process (MCP), $K$-tier PPP and Poisson line Cox process (PLCP). Specifically, we obtain the SINR meta distribution for PLCP networks for the first time. Even though the proposed approximation looks simple but it shows good matching in comparison to the popular beta approximation as well as the Monte-Carlo simulations, which opens the door to adopting this approximation in more advanced network architectures.
Non-linear dynamical systems can be handily described by the associated Koopman operator, whose action evolves every observable of the system forward in time. Learning the Koopman operator from data is enabled by a number of algorithms. In this work we present nonasymptotic learning bounds for the Koopman eigenvalues and eigenfunctions estimated by two popular algorithms: Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) and Reduced Rank Regression (RRR). We focus on time-reversal-invariant Markov chains, implying that the Koopman operator is self-adjoint. This includes important examples of stochastic dynamical systems, notably Langevin dynamics. Our spectral learning bounds are driven by the simultaneous control of the operator norm risk of the estimators and a metric distortion associated to the corresponding eigenfunctions. Our analysis indicates that both algorithms have similar variance, but EDMD suffers from a larger bias which might be detrimental to its learning rate. We further argue that a large metric distortion may lead to spurious eigenvalues, a phenomenon which has been empirically observed, and note that metric distortion can be estimated from data. Numerical experiments complement the theoretical findings.
Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades (Pearl, 2000). One of the pervasive requirements found throughout this literature is the articulation of assumptions, which commonly appear in the form of causal diagrams. Despite the power of this approach, there are significant settings where the knowledge necessary to specify a causal diagram over all variables is not available, particularly in complex, high-dimensional domains. In this paper, we introduce a new graphical modeling tool called cluster DAGs (for short, C-DAGs) that allows for the partial specification of relationships among variables based on limited prior knowledge, alleviating the stringent requirement of specifying a full causal diagram. A C-DAG specifies relationships between clusters of variables, while the relationships between the variables within a cluster are left unspecified, and can be seen as a graphical representation of an equivalence class of causal diagrams that share the relationships among the clusters. We develop the foundations and machinery for valid inferences over C-DAGs about the clusters of variables at each layer of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (Pearl and Mackenzie 2018; Bareinboim et al. 2020) - L1 (probabilistic), L2 (interventional), and L3 (counterfactual). In particular, we prove the soundness and completeness of d-separation for probabilistic inference in C-DAGs. Further, we demonstrate the validity of Pearl's do-calculus rules over C-DAGs and show that the standard ID identification algorithm is sound and complete to systematically compute causal effects from observational data given a C-DAG. Finally, we show that C-DAGs are valid for performing counterfactual inferences about clusters of variables.
We lay the foundations of a non-parametric theory of best-arm identification in multi-armed bandits with a fixed budget T. We consider general, possibly non-parametric, models D for distributions over the arms; an overarching example is the model D = P(0,1) of all probability distributions over [0,1]. We propose upper bounds on the average log-probability of misidentifying the optimal arm based on information-theoretic quantities that correspond to infima over Kullback-Leibler divergences between some distributions in D and a given distribution. This is made possible by a refined analysis of the successive-rejects strategy of Audibert, Bubeck, and Munos (2010). We finally provide lower bounds on the same average log-probability, also in terms of the same new information-theoretic quantities; these lower bounds are larger when the (natural) assumptions on the considered strategies are stronger. All these new upper and lower bounds generalize existing bounds based, e.g., on gaps between distributions.
The spectral density function describes the second-order properties of a stationary stochastic process on $\mathbb{R}^d$. This paper considers the nonparametric estimation of the spectral density of a continuous-time stochastic process taking values in a separable Hilbert space. Our estimator is based on kernel smoothing and can be applied to a wide variety of spatial sampling schemes including those in which data are observed at irregular spatial locations. Thus, it finds immediate applications in Spatial Statistics, where irregularly sampled data naturally arise. The rates for the bias and variance of the estimator are obtained under general conditions in a mixed-domain asymptotic setting. When the data are observed on a regular grid, the optimal rate of the estimator matches the minimax rate for the class of covariance functions that decay according to a power law. The asymptotic normality of the spectral density estimator is also established under general conditions for Gaussian Hilbert-space valued processes. Finally, with a view towards practical applications the asymptotic results are specialized to the case of discretely-sampled functional data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
POMDPs capture a broad class of decision making problems, but hardness results suggest that learning is intractable even in simple settings due to the inherent partial observability. However, in many realistic problems, more information is either revealed or can be computed during some point of the learning process. Motivated by diverse applications ranging from robotics to data center scheduling, we formulate a Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) as a POMDP where the latent states are revealed to the learner in hindsight and only during training. We introduce new algorithms for the tabular and function approximation settings that are provably sample-efficient with hindsight observability, even in POMDPs that would otherwise be statistically intractable. We give a lower bound showing that the tabular algorithm is optimal in its dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.
In this note, we prove that the following function space with absolutely convergent Fourier series \[ F_d:=\left\{ f\in L^2([0,1)^d)\:\middle| \: \|f\|:=\sum_{\boldsymbol{k}\in \mathbb{Z}^d}|\hat{f}(\boldsymbol{k})| \max\left(1,\min_{j\in \mathrm{supp}(\boldsymbol{k})}\log |k_j|\right) <\infty \right\}\] with $\hat{f}(\boldsymbol{k})$ being the $\boldsymbol{k}$-th Fourier coefficient of $f$ and $\mathrm{supp}(\boldsymbol{k}):=\{j\in \{1,\ldots,d\}\mid k_j\neq 0\}$ is polynomially tractable for multivariate integration in the worst-case setting. Here polynomial tractability means that the minimum number of function evaluations required to make the worst-case error less than or equal to a tolerance $\varepsilon$ grows only polynomially with respect to $\varepsilon^{-1}$ and $d$. It is important to remark that the function space $F_d$ is unweighted, that is, all variables contribute equally to the norm of functions. Our tractability result is in contrast to those for most of the unweighted integration problems studied in the literature, in which polynomial tractability does not hold and the problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Our proof is constructive in the sense that we provide an explicit quasi-Monte Carlo rule that attains a desired worst-case error bound.
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first specify the maximal degree to which the distribution of unobserved potential outcomes may deviate from that of observed outcomes. We then derive sharp bounds on the average treatment effects under this assumption. Our framework encompasses the popular marginal sensitivity model as a special case, and we demonstrate how the proposed methodology can address a primary challenge of the marginal sensitivity model that it produces uninformative results when unobserved confounders substantially affect treatment and outcome. Specifically, we develop an alternative sensitivity model, called the distributional sensitivity model, under the assumption that heterogeneity of treatment effect due to unobserved variables is relatively small. Unlike the marginal sensitivity model, the distributional sensitivity model allows for potential lack of overlap and often produces informative bounds even when unobserved variables substantially affect both treatment and outcome. Finally, we show how to extend the distributional sensitivity model to difference-in-differences designs and settings with instrumental variables. Through simulation and empirical studies, we demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.
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