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This paper presents a Bayesian reformulation of covariate-assisted principal (CAP) regression of Zhao et al. (2021), which aims to identify components in the covariance of response signal that are associated with covariates in a regression framework. We introduce a geometric formulation and reparameterization of individual covariance matrices in their tangent space. By mapping the covariance matrices to the tangent space, we leverage Euclidean geometry to perform posterior inference. This approach enables joint estimation of all parameters and uncertainty quantification within a unified framework, fusing dimension reduction for covariance matrices with regression model estimation. We validate the proposed method through simulation studies and apply it to analyze associations between covariates and brain functional connectivity, utilizing data from the Human Connectome Project.

Background: Cannabis use disorder (CUD) is a growing public health problem. Early identification of adolescents and young adults at risk of developing CUD in the future may help stem this trend. A logistic regression model fitted using a Bayesian learning approach was developed recently to predict the risk of future CUD based on seven risk factors in adolescence and youth. A nationally representative longitudinal dataset, Add Health was used to train the model (henceforth referred as Add Health model). Methods: We validated the Add Health model on two cohorts, namely, Michigan Longitudinal Study (MLS) and Christchurch Health and Development Study (CHDS) using longitudinal data from participants until they were approximately 30 years old (to be consistent with the training data from Add Health). If a participant was diagnosed with CUD at any age during this period, they were considered a case. We calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and the ratio of expected and observed number of cases (E/O). We also explored re-calibrating the model to account for differences in population prevalence. Results: The cohort sizes used for validation were 424 (53 cases) for MLS and 637 (105 cases) for CHDS. AUCs for the two cohorts were 0.66 (MLS) and 0.73 (CHDS) and the corresponding E/O ratios (after recalibration) were 0.995 and 0.999. Conclusion: The external validation of the Add Health model on two different cohorts lends confidence to the model's ability to identify adolescent or young adult cannabis users at high risk of developing CUD in later life.

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.

Line coverage is the task of servicing a given set of one-dimensional features in an environment. It is important for the inspection of linear infrastructure such as road networks, power lines, and oil and gas pipelines. This paper addresses the single robot line coverage problem for aerial and ground robots by modeling it as an optimization problem on a graph. The problem belongs to the broad class of arc routing problems and is closely related to the rural postman problem (RPP) on asymmetric graphs. The paper presents an integer linear programming formulation with proofs of correctness. Using the minimum cost flow problem, we develop approximation algorithms with guarantees on the solution quality. These guarantees also improve the existing results for the asymmetric RPP. The main algorithm partitions the problem into three cases based on the structure of the required graph, i.e., the graph induced by the features that require servicing. We evaluate our algorithms on road networks from the 50 most populous cities in the world, consisting of up to 730 road segments. The algorithms, augmented with improvement heuristics, run within 3s and generate solutions that are within 10% of the optimum. We experimentally demonstrate our algorithms with commercial UAVs.

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator or negative outcome control) have been proposed in this setting in the literature. However, these approaches require either restrictive assumptions on the data generating model or having access to at least two proxy variables. We propose a method to estimate the causal effect using cross moments between the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy variable. In particular, we show that the causal effect can be identified with simple arithmetic operations on the cross moments if the latent confounder in linear SCM is non-Gaussian. In this setting, DiD estimator provides an unbiased estimate only in the special case where the latent confounder has exactly the same direct causal effects on the outcomes in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases. This translates to the common trend assumption in DiD, which we effectively relax. Additionally, we provide an impossibility result that shows the causal effect cannot be identified if the observational distribution over the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy is jointly Gaussian. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the effectiveness of the proposed approach in estimating the causal effect.

Data heterogeneity across clients is a key challenge in federated learning. Prior works address this by either aligning client and server models or using control variates to correct client model drift. Although these methods achieve fast convergence in convex or simple non-convex problems, the performance in over-parameterized models such as deep neural networks is lacking. In this paper, we first revisit the widely used FedAvg algorithm in a deep neural network to understand how data heterogeneity influences the gradient updates across the neural network layers. We observe that while the feature extraction layers are learned efficiently by FedAvg, the substantial diversity of the final classification layers across clients impedes the performance. Motivated by this, we propose to correct model drift by variance reduction only on the final layers. We demonstrate that this significantly outperforms existing benchmarks at a similar or lower communication cost. We furthermore provide proof for the convergence rate of our algorithm.

In this work, we deepen on the use of normalizing flows for causal reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage recent results on non-linear ICA to show that causal models are identifiable from observational data given a causal ordering, and thus can be recovered using autoregressive normalizing flows (NFs). Second, we analyze different design and learning choices for causal normalizing flows to capture the underlying causal data-generating process. Third, we describe how to implement the do-operator in causal NFs, and thus, how to answer interventional and counterfactual questions. Finally, in our experiments, we validate our design and training choices through a comprehensive ablation study; compare causal NFs to other approaches for approximating causal models; and empirically demonstrate that causal NFs can be used to address real-world problems, where the presence of mixed discrete-continuous data and partial knowledge on the causal graph is the norm. The code for this work can be found at //github.com/psanch21/causal-flows.

Quality Diversity (QD) algorithms have been proposed to search for a large collection of both diverse and high-performing solutions instead of a single set of local optima. While early QD algorithms view the objective and descriptor functions as black-box functions, novel tools have been introduced to use gradient information to accelerate the search and improve overall performance of those algorithms over continuous input spaces. However a broad range of applications involve discrete spaces, such as drug discovery or image generation. Exploring those spaces is challenging as they are combinatorially large and gradients cannot be used in the same manner as in continuous spaces. We introduce map-elites with a Gradient-Informed Discrete Emitter (ME-GIDE), which extends QD optimisation with differentiable functions over discrete search spaces. ME-GIDE leverages the gradient information of the objective and descriptor functions with respect to its discrete inputs to propose gradient-informed updates that guide the search towards a diverse set of high quality solutions. We evaluate our method on challenging benchmarks including protein design and discrete latent space illumination and find that our method outperforms state-of-the-art QD algorithms in all benchmarks.

We propose a novel $K$-nearest neighbor resampling procedure for estimating the performance of a policy from historical data containing realized episodes of a decision process generated under a different policy. We focus on feedback policies that depend deterministically on the current state in environments with continuous state-action spaces and system-inherent stochasticity effected by chosen actions. Such settings are common in a wide range of high-stake applications and are actively investigated in the context of stochastic control. Our procedure exploits that similar state/action pairs (in a metric sense) are associated with similar rewards and state transitions. This enables our resampling procedure to tackle the counterfactual estimation problem underlying off-policy evaluation (OPE) by simulating trajectories similarly to Monte Carlo methods. Compared to other OPE methods, our algorithm does not require optimization, can be efficiently implemented via tree-based nearest neighbor search and parallelization and does not explicitly assume a parametric model for the environment's dynamics. These properties make the proposed resampling algorithm particularly useful for stochastic control environments. We prove that our method is statistically consistent in estimating the performance of a policy in the OPE setting under weak assumptions and for data sets containing entire episodes rather than independent transitions. To establish the consistency, we generalize Stone's Theorem, a well-known result in nonparametric statistics on local averaging, to include episodic data and the counterfactual estimation underlying OPE. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm in a variety of stochastic control settings including a linear quadratic regulator, trade execution in limit order books and online stochastic bin packing.