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In model selection, several types of cross-validation are commonly used and many variants have been introduced. While consistency of some of these methods has been proven, their rate of convergence to the oracle is generally still unknown. Until now, an asymptotic analysis of crossvalidation able to answer this question has been lacking. Existing results focus on the ''pointwise'' estimation of the risk of a single estimator, whereas analysing model selection requires understanding how the CV risk varies with the model. In this article, we investigate the asymptotics of the CV risk in the neighbourhood of the optimal model, for trigonometric series estimators in density estimation. Asymptotically, simple validation and ''incomplete'' V --fold CV behave like the sum of a convex function fn and a symmetrized Brownian changed in time W gn/V. We argue that this is the right asymptotic framework for studying model selection.

We analyze the Lanczos method for matrix function approximation (Lanczos-FA), an iterative algorithm for computing $f(\mathbf{A}) \mathbf{b}$ when $\mathbf{A}$ is a Hermitian matrix and $\mathbf{b}$ is a given mathbftor. Assuming that $f : \mathbb{C} \rightarrow \mathbb{C}$ is piecewise analytic, we give a framework, based on the Cauchy integral formula, which can be used to derive {\em a priori} and \emph{a posteriori} error bounds for Lanczos-FA in terms of the error of Lanczos used to solve linear systems. Unlike many error bounds for Lanczos-FA, these bounds account for fine-grained properties of the spectrum of $\mathbf{A}$, such as clustered or isolated eigenvalues. Our results are derived assuming exact arithmetic, but we show that they are easily extended to finite precision computations using existing theory about the Lanczos algorithm in finite precision. We also provide generalized bounds for the Lanczos method used to approximate quadratic forms $\mathbf{b}^\textsf{H} f(\mathbf{A}) \mathbf{b}$, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds with numerical experiments.

In this paper, we are interested in nonparametric kernel estimation of a generalized regression function, including conditional cumulative distribution and conditional quantile functions, based on an incomplete sample $(X_t, Y_t, \zeta_t)_{t\in \mathbb{ R}^+}$ copies of a continuous-time stationary ergodic process $(X, Y, \zeta)$. The predictor $X$ is valued in some infinite-dimensional space, whereas the real-valued process $Y$ is observed when $\zeta= 1$ and missing whenever $\zeta = 0$. Pointwise and uniform consistency (with rates) of these estimators as well as a central limit theorem are established. Conditional bias and asymptotic quadratic error are also provided. Asymptotic and bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the generalized regression function are also discussed. A first simulation study is performed to compare the discrete-time to the continuous-time estimations. A second simulation is also conducted to discuss the selection of the optimal sampling mesh in the continuous-time case. Finally, it is worth noting that our results are stated under ergodic assumption without assuming any classical mixing conditions.

In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the estimation procedures to increase their precision. In this article, we use random forests to estimate the functional relationship between the survey variable and the auxiliary variables. In recent years, random forests have become attractive as National Statistical Offices have now access to a variety of data sources, potentially exhibiting a large number of observations on a large number of variables. We establish the theoretical properties of model-assisted procedures based on random forests and derive corresponding variance estimators. A model-calibration procedure for handling multiple survey variables is also discussed. The results of a simulation study suggest that the proposed point and estimation procedures perform well in term of bias, efficiency, and coverage of normal-based confidence intervals, in a wide variety of settings. Finally, we apply the proposed methods using data on radio audiences collected by M\'ediam\'etrie, a French audience company.

To understand the behavior of large dynamical systems like transportation networks, one must often rely on measurements transmitted by a set of sensors, for instance individual vehicles. Such measurements are likely to be incomplete and imprecise, which makes it hard to recover the underlying signal of interest.Hoping to quantify this phenomenon, we study the properties of a partially-observed state-space model. In our setting, the latent state $X$ follows a high-dimensional Vector AutoRegressive process $X_t = \theta X_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t$. Meanwhile, the observations $Y$ are given by a noise-corrupted random sample from the state $Y_t = \Pi_t X_t + \eta_t$. Several random sampling mechanisms are studied, allowing us to investigate the effect of spatial and temporal correlations in the distribution of the sampling matrices $\Pi_t$.We first prove a lower bound on the minimax estimation error for the transition matrix $\theta$. We then describe a sparse estimator based on the Dantzig selector and upper bound its non-asymptotic error, showing that it achieves the optimal convergence rate for most of our sampling mechanisms. Numerical experiments on simulated time series validate our theoretical findings, while an application to open railway data highlights the relevance of this model for public transport traffic analysis.

In this paper we study covariance estimation with missing data. We consider missing data mechanisms that can be independent of the data, or have a time varying dependency. Additionally, observed variables may have arbitrary (non uniform) and dependent observation probabilities. For each mechanism, we construct an unbiased estimator and obtain bounds for the expected value of their estimation error in operator norm. Our bounds are equivalent, up to constant and logarithmic factors, to state of the art bounds for complete and uniform missing observations. Furthermore, for the more general non uniform and dependent cases, the proposed bounds are new or improve upon previous results. Our error estimates depend on quantities we call scaled effective rank, which generalize the effective rank to account for missing observations. All the estimators studied in this work have the same asymptotic convergence rate (up to logarithmic factors).

We study the problem of list-decodable mean estimation, where an adversary can corrupt a majority of the dataset. Specifically, we are given a set $T$ of $n$ points in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and a parameter $0< \alpha <\frac 1 2$ such that an $\alpha$-fraction of the points in $T$ are i.i.d. samples from a well-behaved distribution $\mathcal{D}$ and the remaining $(1-\alpha)$-fraction of the points are arbitrary. The goal is to output a small list of vectors at least one of which is close to the mean of $\mathcal{D}$. As our main contribution, we develop new algorithms for list-decodable mean estimation, achieving nearly-optimal statistical guarantees, with running time $n^{1 + o(1)} d$. All prior algorithms for this problem had additional polynomial factors in $\frac 1 \alpha$. As a corollary, we obtain the first almost-linear time algorithms for clustering mixtures of $k$ separated well-behaved distributions, nearly-matching the statistical guarantees of spectral methods. Prior clustering algorithms inherently relied on an application of $k$-PCA, thereby incurring runtimes of $\Omega(n d k)$. This marks the first runtime improvement for this basic statistical problem in nearly two decades. The starting point of our approach is a novel and simpler near-linear time robust mean estimation algorithm in the $\alpha \to 1$ regime, based on a one-shot matrix multiplicative weights-inspired potential decrease. We crucially leverage this new algorithmic framework in the context of the iterative multi-filtering technique of Diakonikolas et. al. '18, '20, providing a method to simultaneously cluster and downsample points using one-dimensional projections --- thus, bypassing the $k$-PCA subroutines required by prior algorithms.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.

Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.